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IHME and Jay Inslee pushing talking points to extend shutdowns
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:23 am
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:23 am
Yesterday Washington governor Jay Inslee had a press conference in which he released some new IHME models which forecast the impact of ending the shutdown orders on different dates and then present the "rebound effect" as "preventable deaths". This is concerning for a number of reasons. This logic will exist until a vaccine is developed, and it's not feasible to shutdown that long. Also, what we were sold with social distancing and flattening the curve wasn't a strategy to prevent all deaths from the virus, but to buy time to increase hospital capacity.
One thing that I think many aren't realizing with these IHME models is that the only reason they flatline early May and don't show a rebound is that the models are assuming the government will have fully effective "containment" strategies in place by June 1st. If the shutdown orders are going to extend until we have full containment through mass testing, contact tracing, etc then get ready for a longer ride than early May...
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One thing that I think many aren't realizing with these IHME models is that the only reason they flatline early May and don't show a rebound is that the models are assuming the government will have fully effective "containment" strategies in place by June 1st. If the shutdown orders are going to extend until we have full containment through mass testing, contact tracing, etc then get ready for a longer ride than early May...
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Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:24 am to MusclesofBrussels
The purposes of the fricking social distancing was not to prevent deaths.
It was to prevent overrun hospitals.
frick these people and all who agree with them.
It was to prevent overrun hospitals.
frick these people and all who agree with them.
This post was edited on 4/11/20 at 11:25 am
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:24 am to MusclesofBrussels
Downvote for them not you. 
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:25 am to MusclesofBrussels
IHME should be laughed out of the fricking building
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:25 am to tiger91
Downvote for you and them
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:25 am to Scruffy
quote:
The purposes of the fricking social distancing was not to prevent deaths.
It was to prevent overrun hospitals.
frick these people and all who agree with them.
SO MUCH THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:26 am to MusclesofBrussels
Near chart.
So he’s proposing a shutdown through?
I’m guessing no one axed.
So he’s proposing a shutdown through?
I’m guessing no one axed.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:26 am to MusclesofBrussels
Let Washington or any other state that wants to stay locked down stay locked down until the end of time if they want. The rest of us can get back rolling and just watch them bitches starve.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:26 am to Scruffy
It seems that the endgame is contact tracing and has been for some time. They've just been keeping us in the dark
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:26 am to Scruffy
quote:
The purposes of the fricking social distancing was not to prevent deaths. It was to prevent overrun hospitals.
Once more for the people in the back.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:27 am to Scruffy
quote:
The purposes of the fricking social distancing was not to prevent deaths.
It was to prevent overrun hospitals.
Do overwhelmed hospitals have an effect on mortality rates?
This post was edited on 4/11/20 at 11:28 am
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:27 am to Antonio Moss
quote:Is that a serious question?
Does overwhelmed hospitals have an effect on mortality rates?
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:28 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
Does overwhelmed hospitals have an effect on mortality rates?
Yes. But mortality projections did not include overrun hospitals in any projection for mortality.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:29 am to MusclesofBrussels
I might respect them just a little if they came out and said they want to shutdown until the election.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:29 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
Do overwhelmed hospitals have an effect on mortality rates?
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:29 am to Strannix
quote:
IHME should be laughed out of the fricking building
Agree. This falls into the category: fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:29 am to Scruffy
quote:
Is that a serious question?
Sure. Your argument is that social distancing is not about preventing deaths.
I’m asking you whether there is a relationship between an overwhelmed medical system and an increasing mortality rate.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:30 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
Your argument is that social distancing is not about preventing deaths.
Again, this is from the models themselves. They argue explicitly that social distancing is about staying under surge capacity ICU.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:31 am to the808bass
quote:
Yes. But mortality projections did not include overrun hospitals in any projection for mortality.
For this model, correct. But that is not really the point.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:31 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
Sure. Your argument is that social distancing is not about preventing deaths.
I’m asking you whether there is a relationship between an overwhelmed medical system and an increasing mortality rate.
The purpose was to prevent overrunning hospitals so that what deaths there were were not compounded by them being overrun.
There were going to be deaths no matter what.
Your question is not the gotcha you think it is, and you should hopefully already know the answer to your question.
This post was edited on 4/11/20 at 11:32 am
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