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re: If you believe in following the $$; Predictit odds of Harris winning are up ALOT
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:19 am to Covingtontiger77
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:19 am to Covingtontiger77
Dems are the kinds of people who would throw money around in the betting markets to create a perception of inevitability.
Hillary was inevitable until she wasn’t. Turned out to be a paper tiger to a degree.
Hillary was inevitable until she wasn’t. Turned out to be a paper tiger to a degree.
0
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:28 am to GumboPot
quote:
GumboPot
I pray that is accurate, but there is no way.... right?
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:34 am to Covingtontiger77
I think people are fretting too much over Harris closing the gap.
It is true, that she has closed the gap that Biden left. However, the Democrats don’t need to be close to even by election day, they need to be well ahead.
Biden and Clinton both had significant leads over Trump headed into election day, and those races were decided by a few hundred thousand votes in swing states.
Harris has an incredibly narrow path to victory compared to Trump. It seems to be a forgone conclusion that he will carry Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina this year. That means that she has to win all of the Midwestern states. He only has to win one of them.
The reality is that Biden was headed toward a historic defeat. I would say that the odds of Trump winning are still 60-40 over Harris.
It is true, that she has closed the gap that Biden left. However, the Democrats don’t need to be close to even by election day, they need to be well ahead.
Biden and Clinton both had significant leads over Trump headed into election day, and those races were decided by a few hundred thousand votes in swing states.
Harris has an incredibly narrow path to victory compared to Trump. It seems to be a forgone conclusion that he will carry Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina this year. That means that she has to win all of the Midwestern states. He only has to win one of them.
The reality is that Biden was headed toward a historic defeat. I would say that the odds of Trump winning are still 60-40 over Harris.
This post was edited on 7/29/24 at 10:40 am
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:47 am to cajuntiger1010
quote:
You are putting a lot of trust in Kamala, she ain’t Barry
She's not. She's legit retarded, but it's going to take some preparation and discipline for Trump to bring that forward. Hopefully he doesn't just wing it.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 11:19 am to FightinTigersDammit
All they will talk about is Trump lied. He said 799 when it was 798 on so on
Posted on 7/29/24 at 1:50 pm to Covingtontiger77
quote:
New shiny object had taken their affection and attention- Kamala
but she's not new........she's the same old broken, laughing, idiotic retard that has been hidden from us for 3+ years. all the buzz you're seeing is fake. those in the middle who started to lean right some, aren't going to swing back left because of one of the idiots in the current admin being name the new candidate. the buzz is as fake as she is.
This post was edited on 7/29/24 at 1:57 pm
Posted on 7/29/24 at 1:52 pm to Covingtontiger77
There's a lot of swing investors on PredictIt that occurs b/c it's such a tightly capped investment (max position is only $850) so you have WAY fewer long term investors.
Polymarket is uncapped which makes it a FAR better indicator.
PredictIt has guys like me who are temporarily on Harris b/c we knew she was going to pop. Then we'll sell when she gets above 50 (it's likely coming) and Trump will surge. Will probably happen a handful of times.
Polymarket is uncapped which makes it a FAR better indicator.
PredictIt has guys like me who are temporarily on Harris b/c we knew she was going to pop. Then we'll sell when she gets above 50 (it's likely coming) and Trump will surge. Will probably happen a handful of times.
This post was edited on 7/29/24 at 1:53 pm
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