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re: I asked grok how much did the bond market gain last week.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 1:59 pm to Jbird
Posted on 4/6/25 at 1:59 pm to Jbird
quote:
Explains why our prolific economic giants with a combined nearly 750,000 posts haven't chimed in.
I have chimed in on this discussion, just not this thread. Why lie?
From this mroning. I'll ask the same things here
quote:
Where was this promise and policy goal during the campaign?
quote:
How long will it take to refi all of the debt coming due? When will be the last refi, to put it another way?
quote:
That's a different question, and I don't know.
The debt comes due on a schedule. What is the time period of that schedule? I don't know I'm asking.
This post was edited on 4/6/25 at 2:06 pm
1
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:01 pm to baldona
I have no idea when algos decide selling is overdone
But i do know a lot of stox with zero exposure to tariffs got dumped as panic selling gets people to sell whatever has a bid when they feel urge to raise cash ... and many of these same stocks also love lower rates which has happened as well ......
With the 10yr down over 80bps off january highs and things like pipeline MLP yields much higher on rapid selloff last week or in GSE mREITs , there should be / could be some rapid reversals
But i do know a lot of stox with zero exposure to tariffs got dumped as panic selling gets people to sell whatever has a bid when they feel urge to raise cash ... and many of these same stocks also love lower rates which has happened as well ......
With the 10yr down over 80bps off january highs and things like pipeline MLP yields much higher on rapid selloff last week or in GSE mREITs , there should be / could be some rapid reversals
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:04 pm to OU Guy
The shorts and the sideline screamers all painting a picture that junk credit has collapsed
Simply not true
We had hit near alltime tights recently and have certainly widened but spreads were alot wider in 2023 and 2022 and were 2-3x wider in 2008-2009
JP Morgan B-BB spread
Simply not true
We had hit near alltime tights recently and have certainly widened but spreads were alot wider in 2023 and 2022 and were 2-3x wider in 2008-2009
JP Morgan B-BB spread
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:04 pm to OU Guy
quote:
But i do know a lot of stox with zero exposure to tariffs got dumped as panic selling gets people to sell whatever has a bid when they feel urge to raise cash ... and many of these same stocks also love lower rates which has happened as well ......
You just described NVDA.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:09 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Where was this promise and policy goal during the campaign?
Yeah, telling people you're going to cause the market to drop like a stone is a great way to get elected.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:11 pm to BuckyCheese
quote:
Yeah, telling people you're going to cause the market to drop like a stone is a great way to get elected.
If it's a good policy now, being sold to the flock wouldn't it have been a good one then?
Or, from the opposite direction, if people wouldn't have voted for Trump due to this policy in November, why would they support it today?
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:20 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
it's a good policy now, being sold to the flock wouldn't it have been a good one then?
Hes in office now, that's why.
Yelling would have tried her best to sink any moves she knew he would make. He simply outsmarted those idiots.
In a few months, when the culmination of all of these things come together, you'll be made to be dumber than already known.
This post was edited on 4/7/25 at 12:12 pm
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:27 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Anyway the fact that $3 trillion moved into the bond market last week is a really healthy sign.
This is a worthy topic, but you know just enough to be dangerous.
First of all, "the bond market" is more than just US Treasuries. UST probably make up ~1/3 of the US bond market.
Second, $3 Trillion didn't "move into the bond market" last week. The question Grok was likely answering was "how did the market value of UST change last week" - and $3T seems like a reasonable answer, and UST did rally quite a bit (yields went down a lot).
But elsewhere, plenty of bonds sold off - particularly corporates. You can see HERE that corporate spreads are basically at 52-week highs.
The net increase in aggregate bond values is almost certainly less than $3T.
But it is true that a very worthy goal is 10 year UST rates being as low as possible so some of these impending maturities can be refied.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:28 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
If it's a good policy now, being sold to the flock wouldn't it have been a good one then?
Or, from the opposite direction, if people wouldn't have voted for Trump due to this policy in November, why would they support it today?
You know as well as I do the majority of voters are stupid.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:29 pm to BuckyCheese
Some more than others
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:31 pm to Big Scrub TX
I asked grok myself;
quote:
Reality Check
$3.5 trillion in 2 days (X claim) is dubious—double the weekly norm for total trading, not net flows. Posts on X often inflate for effect.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:34 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
If it's a good policy now, being sold to the flock wouldn't it have been a good one then?
Or, from the opposite direction, if people wouldn't have voted for Trump due to this policy in November, why would they support it today?
Are you always this dumb?
Imagine the fake MSM using it as a weapon before elections. The same fake press who sold out long ago.
A lot of voters don’t understand economics, and rely on press to tell them lies.
Anyone not looking at the long term picture is clueless. But anything short term is used by the fake press to say doom and gloom.
Sometimes to get gain you have short term pain. Commie press has brainwashed masses like yourself that there should never be pain or sacrifice for the longer term gain. Their goal is to destroy America. You are willingly playing your part in that propaganda daily and are despised by a huge majority of posters.
Have you ever admitted Biden had runaway inflation? And how that killed so many middle and lower class. For example, all the houses went way up in value. Yet its just book value. But the other foot to drop is insurance. Now all that inflated value has to be insured for a higher replacement value. So insurance skyrocketed costing so much money out of pockets. And the kicker is even if one sold house at much higher price the house they bought was also inflated high so they didn’t make anything out of Bideninflation. They just paid more insurance cost. Need your roof replaced? Well you pay a percentage of the house value as deductable. So it costs you way more to pay that deductible. Then rental owners had to raise their prices to cover extra costs.
And thats just one example of everything that inflated.
And you never say anything about that. Which is why you are so despised here because all you are is a commie lefturd bot repeating their daily talking points.
Ok, now back you go to shadow ignore (meaning I just skip over your drivel).
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:36 pm to OU Guy
quote:
Are you always this dumb?
Imagine the fake MSM
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:37 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
If it's a good policy now, being sold to the flock wouldn't it have been a good one then?
Or, from the opposite direction, if people wouldn't have voted for Trump due to this policy in November, why would they support it today?
Like buying a used car. After 2-3 months you may realize the previous owner did little to maintain it and drove it real hard.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:37 pm to OU Guy
quote:
Have you ever admitted Biden had runaway inflation? And how that killed so many middle and lower class. For example, all the houses went way up in value. Yet its just book value. But the other foot to drop is insurance. Now all that inflated value has to be insured for a higher replacement value. So insurance skyrocketed costing so much money out of pockets. And the kicker is even if one sold house at much higher price the house they bought was also inflated high so they didn’t make anything out of Bideninflation. They just paid more insurance cost. Need your roof replaced? Well you pay a percentage of the house value as deductable. So it costs you way more to pay that deductible. Then rental owners had to raise their prices to cover extra costs.
And thats just one example of everything that inflated.
And you never say anything about that.
You are so fricking wrong here it's comical
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:45 pm to BuckyCheese
quote:Yeah. The OP is a low-information voter masquerading as a slightly competent one.
I asked grok myself;
quote:
Reality Check
$3.5 trillion in 2 days (X claim) is dubious—double the weekly norm for total trading, not net flows. Posts on X often inflate for effect.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:46 pm to momentoftruth87
quote:
Roger doesn’t care, still drunpfs fault
Roger wants total collapse to save his Govy Stimmy
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:50 pm to GumboPot
Bring back Green New Deal 2, Electric Bugaloo. Fire up the printing press. Drumpf is destroying the Economic Zone of America and muh 401k.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 2:52 pm to GumboPot
quote:
It's making the the right macro economic moves to refinance the $9.2 trillion in debt due this year. Approximately 3 trillion moved into the bond market last week pushing bond prices higher (and interest lower). This is MASSIVALLY healthy.
Until there are aren’t any buyers for govt debt that hasn’t shown any fiscal discipline for 50 plus years.
Yes moving from risk based assets to bonds is a rational move, but at what level?
And guess who buys this massive debt that is currently at 120% of gdp and projected to be 150-160% in 10 years at very low interest rates???? Not sane people.
The Fed Reserve. And guess how they finance it? They print money. And guess what that does? It cause more dramatic inflation.
And round and round we go. But yeah, awesome plan…
This post was edited on 4/6/25 at 2:55 pm
Posted on 4/6/25 at 3:20 pm to baldona
quote:
Has this affected the stock market currently?
More like the stock market has effected the bond market. Last week people sold equities and moved to safer and more safer investments in the bond market.
quote:
I’m trying to understand the impact on private equity?
I guess they way it impacts private equity is if investors in the PE firm are feeling more uncertain about investing or recapitalizing a project based on market conditions and their perspective on the outlook of that particular project's success or failure. FWIW most of my investments are tied up in one PE project (it's in the financial technology sector). My time horizon is 3-5 years. I do have a 401K but I placed all of that in bond funds 6 month prior to the election because I thought the stock market was way too toppy. I'm looking for the right spot to move it all back in to equity funds. When the DJI 30 breaks the 200 moving day average around 36.2k, that looks like a good spot to jump back in, IMO...not investment advice.
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