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re: I asked grok how much did the bond market gain last week.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 3:23 pm to Big Scrub TX
Posted on 4/6/25 at 3:23 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
First of all, "the bond market" is more than just US Treasuries. UST probably make up ~1/3 of the US bond market.
I'm speaking in the context of having to refinance $9.2 trillion in federal debt due this year.
2
Posted on 4/6/25 at 3:24 pm to GumboPot
How long will it take to refi all of the debt coming due? When will be the last refi, to put it another way?
Posted on 4/6/25 at 3:31 pm to BuckyCheese
quote:
I asked grok myself;
quote:
quote:
Reality Check
$3.5 trillion in 2 days (X claim) is dubious—double the weekly norm for total trading, not net flows. Posts on X often inflate for effect.
The bottom line is money moved into the bond market and purchased U.S. Treasuries based on their price and yield movement regardless of what grok says. The evidence is in the price movement and it's glaring as the sun at high noon on a clear day.
The Fed's Fund Rate is 4.33%. The Federal Reserve through their primary dealers is not in the habit of inverting the yield curve. More people were bidding up treasuries faster than the Federal Reserve through their primary dealers could unload treasuries from their balance sheet to maintain parity between the Fed's Fund Rate and the 10 year note for example, 4.33% versus 3.95%.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 3:40 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
How long will it take to refi all of the debt coming due?
It never stops. Look at the chart I posted on the first page.
It's just that we have a record amount to refi this year. We're in the midst of refinancing most of it right now. 70% of the $9.2 trillion in mostly T-bills (short term) are due so the U.S. treasury needs to pay those out and then sell more debt instruments to cover what is lacking through revenue. I'm sure a lot of the people or entities in redemption mode will reinvest in new government debt.
I guess the government would like sell as much T-bills as they can because it's the cheapest form of money for them. But the problem is trying to rejigger the U.S. Treasury portfolio like we are seeing right now.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 3:43 pm to GumboPot
quote:
We're in the midst of refinancing most of it right now. 70% of the $9.2 trillion in mostly T-bills (short term) are due
Due, when, exactly?
Because we will have to continue to tank our economy until we refinance all of them, correct? I'm talking the 9.2T that's part of the 4D Chess plan your OP references.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 3:43 pm to GumboPot
quote:
I guess the government would like sell as much T-bills as they can because it's the cheapest form of money for them. But the problem is trying to rejigger the U.S. Treasury portfolio like we are seeing right now.
It's a high wire act and what the naysayers don't realize is their position is we should just go ahead and jump to our death.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 3:44 pm to David_DJS
quote:
It's a high wire act and what the naysayers don't realize is their position is we should just go ahead and jump to our death.
I'm more concerned we replace cancer with a bullet to the temple
Posted on 4/6/25 at 3:44 pm to GumboPot
I am buying more stocks if the drop continues, in 12 months, we will be in the good zone!
Posted on 4/6/25 at 3:49 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
I'm more concerned we replace cancer with a bullet to the temple
Your concern is noted, but the fact is you, Roger, all the other "they sky is falling!" posters - you're arguing like a woman. It's really easy to point out the risks, mistakes, what's bad and scary, etc., but nobody has explained what would be better.
Reality is we are confronting a fiscal shitshow that's more than two decades in the making, so let's hear what Trump should be doing instead.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 3:50 pm to oldskule
quote:
I am buying more stocks if the drop continues, in 12 months, we will be in the good zone!
This is my general sentiment too. I'm on the verge of jumping in. Just looking for the right signal. I don't want to jump too soon because IDK if people are finished panicking yet. I'm fighting the battle between catching a falling knife versus timing the bottom which are too ill advised investing strategies.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 4:00 pm to David_DJS
Just like Roger and SFP, Trump wants 0% tariffs on both sides of the trading partner agreement (for most trading partners).
Unlike Trump, Roger and SFP are not willing to use tariffs to attain that objective.
Then Bunk comes in and says, what about bringing back manufacturing? It's a valid argument.
Bringing back manufacturing is the compromise between all out trade war and 100% free trade.
For example,
China - trade war.
Germany - light tariffs and BMW and Mercedes manufacture in the U.S.
South Korea - lighter tariffs and Hyundai manufacture in the U.S.
India - light tariffs for both.
Vietnam - free trade.
I think China is a different deal because of steel, aluminum and copper. The DoD is probably screaming in Trumps ear to protect U.S. steel, aluminum and copper industry because if we get into a shooting war with China we cannot rely on China for steel to make battle ships, aluminum to make fighter jets, and copper to make brass to make shells.
Unlike Trump, Roger and SFP are not willing to use tariffs to attain that objective.
Then Bunk comes in and says, what about bringing back manufacturing? It's a valid argument.
Bringing back manufacturing is the compromise between all out trade war and 100% free trade.
For example,
China - trade war.
Germany - light tariffs and BMW and Mercedes manufacture in the U.S.
South Korea - lighter tariffs and Hyundai manufacture in the U.S.
India - light tariffs for both.
Vietnam - free trade.
I think China is a different deal because of steel, aluminum and copper. The DoD is probably screaming in Trumps ear to protect U.S. steel, aluminum and copper industry because if we get into a shooting war with China we cannot rely on China for steel to make battle ships, aluminum to make fighter jets, and copper to make brass to make shells.
This post was edited on 4/6/25 at 4:01 pm
Posted on 4/6/25 at 4:08 pm to GumboPot
quote:
I think China is a different deal because of steel, aluminum and copper. The DoD is probably screaming in Trumps ear to protect U.S. steel, aluminum and copper industry because if we get into a shooting war with China we cannot rely on China for steel to make battle ships, aluminum to make fighter jets, and copper to make brass to make shells.
My .02 - where trade is concerned, it's all about China. Long-term, that's the only fight we actually want to pick.
The rest of it is for effect with a host of objectives, one being debt refi we've posted about in a few threads. But it's more than just that, thought that's at the top of the priority list.
I can't be the only American that has watched western Europe, Canada and Australia become a woke clown car bent on its own destruction and thought, "some substantial portion of this nonsense is happening because you don't have to worry about your own security and you take the US for granted" - I don't think it's a bad thing several of our bestest "friends" are feeling like they've been punched in the nose.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 4:09 pm to David_DJS
The issue is that this is a confidence game now, if this theory is correct. It adds to the chaos of the plan.
Your framing is that we have a existential threat coming immediately with no ability to create a proper strategy/plan, and the only way to achieve the goal is economic suffering (on top of the economic issues we already had, so now we have double the threat/pressure).
The way y'all have framed this, there isn't another option within the framing.
Trump's destabilizing our economy so that rates decrease, so he can refinance this debt over an undetermined amount of time. He has to use chaos and intentionally misleading messaging to avoid the population to understand what's going on so their confidence remains that this is an extremely short-term plan (or a plan to negotiate tariffs or bring back manufacturing or whatever other diversion they're using).
Your framing is that we have a existential threat coming immediately with no ability to create a proper strategy/plan, and the only way to achieve the goal is economic suffering (on top of the economic issues we already had, so now we have double the threat/pressure).
quote:
Reality is we are confronting a fiscal shitshow that's more than two decades in the making, so let's hear what Trump should be doing instead.
The way y'all have framed this, there isn't another option within the framing.
Trump's destabilizing our economy so that rates decrease, so he can refinance this debt over an undetermined amount of time. He has to use chaos and intentionally misleading messaging to avoid the population to understand what's going on so their confidence remains that this is an extremely short-term plan (or a plan to negotiate tariffs or bring back manufacturing or whatever other diversion they're using).
This post was edited on 4/6/25 at 4:11 pm
Posted on 4/6/25 at 4:10 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Just like Roger and SFP, Trump wants 0% tariffs on both sides of the trading partner agreement (for most trading partners).
Unlike Trump, Roger and SFP are not willing to use tariffs to attain that objective.
Per your own thread, that's not the objective
Neither is bringing manufacturing back.
It's the refi option.
quote:
I think China is a different deal because of steel, aluminum and copper. The DoD is probably screaming in Trumps ear to protect U.S. steel, aluminum and copper industry
That's a government subsidy argument, not really a trade argument.
Like Biden's CHIPS
Posted on 4/6/25 at 4:11 pm to David_DJS
quote:
I can't be the only American that has watched western Europe, Canada and Australia become a woke clown car bent on its own destruction and thought, "some substantial portion of this nonsense is happening because you don't have to worry about your own security and you take the US for granted" -
A destabilized world hurts us the most, just as this setup since teh USSR broke up helped us the most.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 4:14 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
How long will it take to refi all of the debt coming due?
Commerical.is about 1tril this year
30-90days to refi it
Posted on 4/6/25 at 4:16 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
30-90days to refi it
Does anyone think we can sustain this chaos and economic turmoil for 3 months without severe repercussions? That's a serious question.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 4:19 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
A destabilized world hurts us the most, just as this setup since teh USSR broke up helped us the most.
And there's nothing more destabilizing than the world's superpower always looking the other way, acquiescing, enabling forces that run counter to our principles.
For example, it should matter that we're not down with Christians being arrested in London for praying silently or voicing criticism of the government.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 5:39 pm to GumboPot
quote:Yes, I know that.
I'm speaking in the context of having to refinance $9.2 trillion in federal debt due this year.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:21 pm to baldona
Trump is rattling the markets to move money from the stock market to Bonds. This will drive down the interest rates and make refinancing the US debt much cheaper.
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