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re: H1N1 vs. Coronavirus - Why are they not comparable?

Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:33 am to
Posted by cahoots
Member since Jan 2009
9134 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:33 am to
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 10:52 am
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:33 am to
quote:

So why is every other country so concerned?
because they have elderly people and because, as you have pointed out, it's a novel virus? does that mean we should destroy the resources that keep hospitals afloat? let's see if you can answer that without any hype or panic.
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
162225 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:35 am to
quote:

does that mean we should destroy the resources that keep hospitals afloat?

No. What sort of absurd question is that? No one is suggesting that we do such a thing.

quote:

let's see if you can answer that without any hype or panic.

The question was so dumb you're lucky I was polite enough to answer it
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:36 am to
quote:

physicians aren't exactly experts on this matter
they're on the front lines and they are getting info from experts. yet, you knuckleheads keep talking about extrapolating the numbers. this is a rhetorical fallacy called special pleading.

quote:

Well as long as you realize it's just that, a dumb fricking conspiracy theory
that wasn't the point. of course you missed it. carry on with the panic
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
162225 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:38 am to
quote:


That's a nice alter you got there.

Nice diversion from him completely destroying your argument
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:39 am to
quote:

The way it makes sense is if you believe the 2 viruses are comparable
i explained this. perhaps you missed it. feel free to go back to prior posts to see where i did that.
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
162225 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:41 am to
quote:


So what do you think is going to happen in other places not currently affected? The virus is magically going to not spread despite no immunity and no vaccine?

NOLA was fine two weeks ago.



Yeah let's just resume big sporting events and the like. I'm sure nothing will go wrong.
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:53 am to
quote:

Powerman
you can throw up an emoji if you want but i cited a statistical fact. this virus, so far, is not even a blip on the radar compared to h1n1. i will explain it again to you. typical peak flu season is 4-5 months. in that time, 30k+ died last year and 60k 2 years ago, IN THE US ALONE. this outbreak started at least 4 months ago and hasn't even hit half a million confirmed cases WORLDWIDE. 20k deaths in total. you're not looking at the big picture. h1n1 had 20mil cases after 6 months in the us alone. h1n1 was not limited to a few hotspots. h1n1 did not have a narrow target demographic. in fact it was worse because it affected children way worse than 19. those are facts.

quote:

It makes perfect sense
quote:

tell me what the US COVID deaths would be if it reached H1N1 US infected levels
it's pointless. 19 doesn't work the same way. different r0. different target demographic. different social responses. aversion to heat with summer just around the corner. ventilator burden. my word. that idiotic statement totally ignores basically all the variables in the equation. you people are incapable of rational discussion on the matter. all you want to do is sensationalize and panic.
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
162225 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:54 am to
quote:

the comparison isn't the epidemiology. but you knew that already didn't you. the comparison is the reaction to outbreaks. outside of a relative handful of hotspots in the world, this virus is almost invisible.

You don't think that's a result of the response?

Had we not taken the measures that we have it's a certainty that it would be much more widespread
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
162225 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:58 am to
quote:

aversion to heat with summer just around the corner.

Wrong I'm afraid

quote:

From the evidence so far, the COVID-19 virus can be transmitted in ALL AREAS, including areas with hot and humid weather. Regardless of climate, adopt protective measures if you live in, or travel to an area reporting COVID-19. The best way to protect yourself against COVID-19 is by frequently cleaning your hands. By doing this you eliminate viruses that may be on your hands and avoid infection that could occur by then touching your eyes, mouth, and nose.


LINK

That was a belief early on that has not been verified unfortunately
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:00 am to
quote:

I don't see how you think what I'm saying is liberal
because it was textbook crisis fear mongering scare tactics. basically everything you've said on this topic itt has been sensationalized and hysterical.

quote:

If all of the hospitalized people were simply not hospitalized do you not think that would have an impact on the mortality rate?
what does this have to do with anything? you said "if we don't care, old people will die." of course we care. that's not the issue. the issue is to what extent are we willing to harm the entire nation for this, at this time, statistically insignificant outbreak with a historically unprecedented response.
Posted by Yak
DuPage County
Member since May 2014
4672 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:01 am to
quote:

it's pointless. 19 doesn't work the same way. different r0. different target demographic. different social responses. aversion to heat with summer just around the corner. ventilator burden. my word. that idiotic statement totally ignores basically all the variables in the equation. you people are incapable of rational discussion on the matter. all you want to do is sensationalize and panic.
This was my entire point of my post...IT'S NOT COMPARABLE

Literally the only way it would be is if you pretended they were, and then extrapolate. Which is why the OP's question is dumb...they're NOT comparable.

fricking shite
Posted by BugAC
St. George
Member since Oct 2007
52796 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:01 am to
quote:

Nice diversion from him completely destroying your argument




Just spotting an alter when i see it, sorry that upsets you. Still waiting on your facts about Obama tests....
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
162225 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:04 am to
quote:

Once again we're talking about the US and you seem to be conflating with international statistics.


He used international for both comparisons so it was a fair comparison

If you pull just the U.S. data from his link this is what you get:

End Of Day Summary for Monday, September 28, 2009
Official US Total:
(According to CDC) 44555 cases, 772 deaths

As of this moment COV-19: 73,813 cases, 1062 deaths

That's over a shorter time period with much more drastic measures in place to prevent the spread of the virus
Posted by BugAC
St. George
Member since Oct 2007
52796 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:04 am to
quote:

. Which is why the OP's question is dumb...they're NOT comparable.


Comparing governmental response to pandemics is dumb? Why was H1N1 not treated near this level. If H1N1 was the new virus going on right now, would the response be the same or similar to now?
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
162225 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:05 am to
quote:

at this time, statistically insignificant outbreak
Posted by Yak
DuPage County
Member since May 2014
4672 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:06 am to
quote:

Comparing governmental response to pandemics is dumb? Why was H1N1 not treated near this level. If H1N1 was the new virus going on right now, would the response be the same or similar to now?
Your OP literally says this:
quote:

H1N1 vs. Coronavirus - Why are they not comparable?
They're not. If you want to go for the political response, then add it to your OP so it makes sense.

Posted by Mo Jeaux
Member since Aug 2008
58762 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:09 am to
quote:

Wrong I'm afraid


No it's not. He said aversion, not that it wouldn't spread in hot weather.

And you're citing the WHO?
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
162225 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:09 am to
quote:

yet another case of people ignoring the asymptomatic nature of 19 that has been confirmed by the medical community. your number is CONFIRMED cases which greatly skews the morbidity. but you knew that already didn't you?

it is not reasonable to conclude that 19 is spreading faster and more deadly given the above

The asymptomatic nature aside if you just look at the death numbers only it is clearly more deadly

Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:10 am to
quote:

What sort of absurd question is that? No one is suggesting that we do such a thing
power - WE ARE CURRENTLY DOING JUST THAT. in a few weeks, there won't be an economy left to support hospitals. that's not hysteria. that's an economic fact. and stupid gov's like jbe are suggesting we double down. close down the state because nola is seeing some 19 cases. it's idiotic

quote:

The question was so dumb you're lucky I was polite enough to answer it
so you can't answer the question. that's all you had to say. predictable
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