Georgia Covid-19 Data Dashboard - 5/26/2020

I am hoping for college football to kick off on schedule and schools to open up on time. So, where is the covid-19 data trending to give us a hint on if we can hold out hope for a return to semi-normalcy?

If you're like me, what info do you look for to see what is actually happening and which way the virus trending? I decided to do a deep dive on the Georgia data that the state (multiple depts) makes available along with the US Dept of Labor, covidtracking.com.
https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report
https://gema.georgia.gov/document/document/sitrep-526/download
https://dch.georgia.gov/document/document/ltc-report-5262020/download
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

What metrics to follow:

A lot of folks are tracking the number of positive cases as the indicator that will tell us if there is a second wave. While the number of positive cases is an interesting stat to track, the number of positives is going to continue to increase as testing continues to increase. The rate of infection to the number tested has already decreased significantly. Many of those testing positive now did not even know they had it at some point in the past (asymptomatic and very mild cases with little to no symtoms).

Covid-19 is always going to be with us (SARS, Swine, etc. are still with us and there are still cases every year - obviously not as many as at their height). Until there is a vaccine (estimated sometime in 2021), covid-19 is going to continue to spread and, even then, vaccines are typically only 40% effective. Covid-19 will never be completely eradicated.

The US locked down to "flatten the curve" to keep from overwhelming our hospitals and medical personnel. The curve was flattened and, outside of NY, hospitals were never close to being overwhelmed.

At the end of the day, current hospitalization utilization is the main driver to track to see if a second, third or fourth wave is occurring. We do not want to overwhelm our hospitals and medical personnel.

Median incubation period is 5 days https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/11/15/18/the-incubation-period-of-coronavirus-disease . Georgia opened the economy back up April 24th + 5 days incubation, we should see the beginning of a second wave April 30/May 1. We have data through 5/26. Hospitalizations Georgia Covid-19 current number of patients in the hospital by date (not cumulative but currently occupying a hospital bed with a covid-19 diagnosis):



What type of strain is covid-19 putting on hospitals as a whole. Let's look at covid-19 bed usage in comparison to overall bed capacity. As of 5/26/2020 4.0% of all (ER, ICU, General combined) Georgia hospital beds were occupied by a covid-19 patient. Covid-19 patients occupied 6.5% of ICU beds.



Here are the trends in Covid-19 Georgia hospital bed utilization. As you can see, there is a very positive trend.



Georgia Covid-19 Testing, Death and Overall Statistics

There has been some debate regarding the Georgia testing numbers. Antibody tests have been added to the testing numbers. Some are concerned that adding these numbers does not help keep up with the number of new cases which is probably a valid point. A friend was sick for two days in early March with no issues. Thought it was just the regular flu. He is going to see his elderly father this week so he went and got an antibody test on Monday. He found out Wednesday he had had covid. Thus, his positive would have shown up in Georgia's positive numbers on Wednesday. Not sure number of new cases is as vital a stat as hospitalizations (discussed above).

Anyway, here are the big picture stats for Georgia covid-19. I put a column in for nursing homes and non-nursing home stats so we could see impact on the general population of Georgia without the nursing home stats. You can get a sense of how the virus has impacted the whole of Georgia population.


How do the covid-19 deaths break down by age. 94.2% of deaths were 50+ years of age. 94.7% of deaths had at least one and most multiple underlying medical conditions. 100 (5.3%) of the deaths died solely because of contracting covid-19.


Nursing Home Statistics

Nursing homes have been devastated by covid-19. 49.0% of all Georgia covid deaths were nursing home residents. 18.7% of Georgia nursing home residents have tested positive for covid-19 (they make up 12.4% of the total GA covid-19 positives). 2,313 nursing home caregivers have tested positive. 3.2% of nursing home residents have died from the virus.


Economic Impact

Covid-19 has had a strong economic impact on Georgia and the rest of the nation. Through Friday 5-16-2020, 42.1% of the Georgia Labor Force (as of 2-29-2020) had lost their job. 1,371 Georgians have lost their job for every one covid-19 death. 35,206 Georgians have lost their job for every one of the deaths the succumbed do solely to covid-19.

Keep in mind this does not include Delta. Delta took stimulus money and cannot layoff anyone (they are taking voluntary) until October 1.



Here is the economic impact on a few more states. Check out Hawaii. Georgia has the highest percentage of job loss.



At the end of the day, the virus trends are moving in the right direction for a hope to a return to semi-normalcy. Hopefully, that will help us get back to moving the economy in a positive direction.