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re: Geopolitical Analyst: China has 10 yrs left...
Posted on 1/7/23 at 9:44 pm to NCAAFootballGenius
Posted on 1/7/23 at 9:44 pm to NCAAFootballGenius
quote:
Large macro trends take several decades to play out. "China is going away in a decade". No, they are not.
They can’t suddenly wave a wand and grow half a billion people.
0
Posted on 1/7/23 at 10:57 pm to CAPEX
quote:Oh, so I guess we should keep it growing and growing and never stopping.
Because the entire economy is based on population growth.
Yeah, bullshite. The ruling class needs constant growth. Sure, them going down will take others with them, but humanity will be fine in the long run.
Anyway, they told us to have less kids because overpopulation is bad. Then, the same people told us we weren't having enough kids and needed to import legions of hostile foreigners. 'Or we all gonna die!!!'
Don't be stupid, man.
Posted on 1/7/23 at 10:59 pm to BurntOrangeMan
quote:China is already fragile and dependent on its role as supply chain provider. That goes away. COLLAPSE.
China ain't going anywhere anytime soon.
Posted on 1/7/23 at 11:03 pm to Jack Ruby
The did such and insanely good job with the one child policy scaring the frick out of families for years and years that now nobody wants more than 1 kid. The % of the population over 65 is crazy and only getting worse.
Reading up on their population woes which are real and verifiable, definitely makes me break out the tin foil hat to wonder if they released covid to wipe out said over 65 population. A little Logan's Run carousel for anyone over 65 or unhealthy.
Reading up on their population woes which are real and verifiable, definitely makes me break out the tin foil hat to wonder if they released covid to wipe out said over 65 population. A little Logan's Run carousel for anyone over 65 or unhealthy.
Posted on 1/7/23 at 11:03 pm to Jack Ruby
Russia and Europe crashing too due demographics, Russia first due economy is in the toilet.
Posted on 1/7/23 at 11:03 pm to NCAAFootballGenius
quote:State subsidies are part of the reason China is in trouble. They have higher labor costs, but the State has been willing to kick-in to give the appearance of a cheaper market.
manufacturing in China is cheaper than Mexico.
The dwindling labor force, particularly skilled labor, in a rapidly aging populace spells BIG trouble.
Labor is cheaper in Mexico with no state subsidies. Even with the Cartels, it is just more stable in the long run.
quote:See above
China is really good at manufacturing. There are plenty of places with lower labor cost than China yet all of the best companies in the world keep buying from there.
quote:It has been several decades
This guy isn't very smart. Large macro trends take several decades to play out.
He talks about that
The trends he is talking about stem from the 80's
Posted on 1/7/23 at 11:04 pm to Jack Ruby
Child labor will keep up the demand, brah.
Posted on 1/7/23 at 11:06 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
I am too tired to go into detail but it is one if the reasons they are in Africa
Africa is quickly becoming a quasi colony of China. They lend money for projects they know will fail and have nefarious plans.
Posted on 1/7/23 at 11:06 pm to NCAAFootballGenius
quote:
I have sourced products all over the world and even after the 25% tariff, manufacturing in China is cheaper than Mexico.
China had free money for manufacturing as money doled out to various provincial CCP heads to develop economically, so manufacturing got a lot of stuff for free but that came at a high cost in that debt is really bad for China what with its all but check kiting schemes for state run bank to state run bank
Posted on 1/7/23 at 11:06 pm to LSU Grad Alabama Fan
quote:Unskilled labor isn't the problem, though
Child labor will keep up the demand, brah.
Child labor isn't skilled labor.
Posted on 1/7/23 at 11:07 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
but at least the USSR had an ethos and raison d’etre
Built on killing off dissent.
Posted on 1/7/23 at 11:10 pm to NCAAFootballGenius
quote:
China is really good at manufacturing
Only due to cheap labor and heavy subsidizing, none of which is sustainable in a global economy.
China is not an innovator, they copy shite. Without foreign money pouring in, they're fricked.
Posted on 1/7/23 at 11:11 pm to ned nederlander
Economically they are hyper-authoritarian State Capitalism.
Very similar to Nazi Germany, and Stalinist USSR.
They are hyper-authoritarian pseudo-socialist, politically
Akin to North Korea, and Stalin's USSR.
Posted on 1/7/23 at 11:13 pm to blueboy
quote:
Explain to me why this is a problem for anyone but the rich ruling class whose business models require constant growth?
You want me to explain population pyramids to you?
quote:
The population thing is such a lie. No one is going to cease to exist.
That isn’t even close to what I said. Their population pyramid shows that they are below replacement. They do not have the young people to keep up with the social safety net that have in place. I’m 10-20 years it will collapse on itself as they have far too many old folk and not nearly enough young folk.
Posted on 1/7/23 at 11:14 pm to beerJeep
Now check out Russia, coupled with their already low relative population.
Posted on 1/7/23 at 11:15 pm to jonnyanony
quote:
Now check out Russia, coupled with their already low relative population.
Okay? Is Russia in Scandinavia?
Posted on 1/7/23 at 11:17 pm to beerJeep
Technically a little bit, but my point was that there are other similar examples teetering on the brink.
Posted on 1/7/23 at 11:18 pm to blueboy
quote:You are talking in absolutes about nuanced things.
The population thing is such a lie. No one is going to cease to exist.
The "cease to exist" isn't literal
You have to have significant percentage of working-age labor to fund programs for the huge numbers of elderly and infirmed. If the balance shifts, it can be devastating to the economy. . .and to the ruling party.
Posted on 1/7/23 at 11:24 pm to jonnyanony
quote:
Technically a little bit, but my point was that there are other similar examples teetering on the brink.
Ehhhhhh. Debatable but I’ll allow it even though it is typically only Norway, Sweden, and Denmark.
I mean, it’s so bad, Denmark has the do it for Denmark campaign
LINKThis post was edited on 1/7/23 at 11:27 pm
Posted on 1/7/23 at 11:26 pm to jonnyanony
quote:
but my point was that there are other similar examples teetering on the brink.
Nothing on China's scale. A desperate China most likely means war.
The global fallout from the past few years is fascinating. Governments are still kicking cans down the road, I've stopped believing the fallout will be soft.
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