re: Fox Sports Marcellus Wiley says it’s not guns, it’s about people

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The US is almost 5x that - in fact, if you just look at the white population (i.e white homicide defendants), they occur at a rate 4x that of France. So it can't be pinned on gang crime either because this is comparing white American defendants to France.

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What can we pin it on? My observation/explanation is pretty simple. I’m 63 years old, I’ve noticed a marked increase in indiscriminate mass murders over the past 30-35 year, what’s changed? What I have concluded is society is in severe cultural decay and is rotting before our eyes from progressive/Marxist indoctrination and the policies that go with this ideology of destruction.

Alterboy putting in work Wolf.

dgnx6, you make a great point and one I haven't considered when others speak about the lack of mass shootings elsewhere. Crazies will find a way, whether bombs, poison gas, fires, vehicles or whatever.

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What can we pin it on?

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You don't have to pin it on anything because his argument was proven false. "White America" does not commit murder at 4x the rate of France. Remember that for when DCF makes this argument again under another alter - probably yet today.

I'm going to keep creating alters until I stop being banned for being liberal. This is taken from the table I provided.



LINK

The table is on page 12 if you scroll down.

It clearly shows you that 'white america' has a homicide offending rate of 4.7 in 2005. This is for the offending column. I'm unclear where the confusion is coming from.

America's overall homicide rate in 2005 was 8.5 per 100,000. The white American population had a much lower homicide rate at 4.7 compared with the overall American homicide rate.

At the time, France had a homicide rate of a little over 1 (1.31). So I'm not lying at all -> you're the only one here who isn't reading the table clearly.

I'm unsure where you're getting the idea that this is for the whole of America, it's for white America if you read the table.

So I guess you're the only one who's being disingenuous here. I'm not sure where you're getting the idea that 4.7 was for all of America.

America's homicide rate after 2010 lowered significantly BUT when we're looking at 2005 figures (which is the only data I could find), my point is proven accurate.

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Using a link you provided, the US overall homicide rate 2005 was 5.6 per 100K, not 8.5.

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Are you dumb?

The data was taken from 1976 to 2005.

It's an average from 1976 to 2005.

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Do you see the problem? Do you need it explained why you're 100% inaccurate? And keep in mind the point you were trying to make with this inaccurate so-called information.

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Why are you lying?

The data was taken from 1976 to 2005.

Across that period, homicide rates averaged 8.5 per 100,000. In France from 1976 to 2005, the homicide rate averaged less than 1.8.

I don't know how I can keep explaining this.

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Dude. Stop. You're embarrassing yourself. Again.

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Dude, stop lying.

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You've proven once again that you know little, and understand only about half of what you read.

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I'm not the one who can't read here.

This was government data taken from 1976 to 2005.

I'm struggling to understand how you can be this disingenuous.

I'm not the one who misread anything.

The table clearly says the data is from 1976 to 2005 so stop. You're the one embarrassing yourself.

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It literally says it above the table.

No shite the homicide rate in 2005 was 5.6, it was *up to* 2005 that the homicide rate was 8.5.

So nice try.

And if we look at the FBI data for 2019, roughly 4728 homicides were committed by white Americans. A further 4752 homicides were unknown (assuming they roughly follow the same distribution as the known offender demographics, that's an additional 1948 homicides committed by white Americans. That's a total of 6700 homicides committed by white Americans in 2019. Assuming a population of 231 million white Americans, that's 2.9 homicides per 100,000 people. 2.9 homicides per 100,000 people in 2019 is roughly 2.5x the homicide rate in France in 2019.

LINK

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Why are you using an average from 1976 thru 2005 as the murder rate in 2005? Don't you think that's dumb? Or is it disingenuous?

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Because I thought it was clear that it was taken from 1976 to 2005.

I've done the calculation for 2019 below and it's around 2.8 homicides per 100,000 for non-Hispanic white Americans.

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That wasn't about the falsehood you posted about the overall murder rate in 2005. That was about you using the murder/offender rate for "white" as if it's the same as "white non-Hispanic" - why didn't you address this?

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Because I can't find data that breaks it down. I've done the calculation below for 2019 data so it will be more recent data.

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So why would an honest and smart person read that and assume you meant "the average of rates from 1976 to 2005"? Particularly when you could use a link you f'n posted yourself and find the actual homicide rate for the US in 2005.

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Because I thought you read the table and it was implied I meant from 1976 to 2005.

Okay, fine.

I'll accept that using 1976-2005 data might skew results.

So I did the calculation on 2019 data.

LINK

And if we look at the FBI data for 2019, roughly 4728 homicides were committed by white Americans. A further 4752 homicides were unknown (assuming they roughly follow the same distribution as the known offender demographics, that's an additional 1948 homicides committed by white Americans (41% of the known sample were committed by white Americans so I've used that as the rate of unknown murders committed by white Americans).

That's a total of 6700 homicides committed by white Americans in 2019. Assuming a population of 231 million white Americans, that's 2.9 homicides per 100,000 people. 2.9 homicides per 100,000 people in 2019 is roughly 2.5x the homicide rate in France in 2019.


So of all white Americans, that's a homicide rate of 2.9 per 100,000 which is massively above France's homicide rate (which is also skewed upwards by Blacks and minorities who live in poor suburbs).

But 20% of the known sample were Hispanic so I'll try and do the crude calculation for non-Hispanic Americans. Removing that 20% from the sample, there were 5360 murders committed by white Americans in 2019 (that calculation is 0.8 * 6700).

There are 191 million non-Hispanic Americans in the US (from the 2020 census) and there were 5360 murders committed by white non-Hispanic Americans. That's a rate of around 2.8 per 100,000.

So 2.8 offending murderers per 100,000 white non-hispanic people in 2019. That's still very big compared to the French homicide rate.

The total homicide rate in the US was 5 per 100,000 people so white people were under the average by around 50%.

I mean I'm not advocating for guns to be taken away or banned or anything. That's impossible.

I think some sort of universal background check + making sure they've not got a history of violence (in the case of the Uvalde killer, dude was killing cats and in the case of the Parkland killer, the guy had an incredibly violent history).

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I'm not sure these data can be used the way you're using them. For example, is it clear that "4728 homicides committed by white Americans" doesn't include Hispanics? That's an honest question - I don't know the answer.

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It's why I removed all the people who identified as Hispanic when I calculated the 2.8 figure.

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Also, your assumptions about how to distribute "Other" is guesswork. So the 6700 total would be interesting to get into.

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It would be 5360 assuming that Hispanics are 20% of the total sample - removing 20% of that for this calculation.

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I think you know how to round, so if we're going to round it's 2x, not 2.5x. Then we talk about the 2.9, but I'll give you credit for at least trying to take into consideration factors that the FBI/others make it difficult to do.

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LINK

Homicide rate in France in 2019 was 1.3.

So around 2.23x to be accurate.

And note that France's homicide rate will be skewed upwards significantly - they've got a lot of poor Muslims and Blacks who live in inner cities.

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Also, opposite all the calculations about gun violence, you need to take into consideration how often a law-abiding citizen uses a gun to defend him/herself, their family or property. This doesn't require shooting a perpetrator. It only requires a perpetrator aware of, or concerned that, their prospective victim is armed. How do you suggest we measure this?

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I mean that's complicated because:

a) Some people have used surveys and tried to extrapolate out but that is never accurate. It over-samples certain demographics in the studies I looked at.

b) We don't know whether an individual would have needed to use a gun if they knew their criminal wasn't armed. For example, the studies above - they seem very suspicious considering 70% of America doesn't own a gun yet looking at the studies above (Kleck for example), you'd think non-gun-owning Americans live in a completely different America than gun-owners.

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the availability of guns fuels violent crime, so you wanted to compare western Europeans to (white) Americans (European descent). Including some number of Hispanics from Mexico/Latin America would skew results.

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I removed Hispanics from the data I calculated as much as possible.

Again, the only government-provided data averages homicide rates from 1976 to 2005. We can look at the French average from 1976 to 2005 (which would have been between 1.5 to 1.9x compared with 4.7x) but that's obviously old data.

You also have to bear in mind, France is by far one of the most dangerous Western countries. Other European countries like the UK have homicide rates of around 1 per 100,000 (and the US non-Hispanic white homicide rate would be 2.8x).

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Also, your assumptions about how to distribute "Other" is guesswork.

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Guess work is the only work I can do to get there.

I can't find actual data on things other than that.