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Posted on 6/11/24 at 12:33 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:quote:
Someone posted two graphs last week where the "good" numbers were because only 90 of 264 cities were reported (as opposed to like 215 of 264 in the "bad" numbers).
IIRC, some (most?) of the major cities who don't report to the DOJ use a different system instead. NYC is one.
It depends on how the FBI is figuring the stats. If the FBI is just comparing reported raw numbers (ie: a total of 100 homicides were reported from all entities in 2022, and in 2023 only 75 homicides were reported from all entities and that number of entities drops), then that's a shite statistic. If they are comparing the stats from the reporting entities against only the previous stats from those same entities, then that's still a good statistical sample (caveats, of course, for things like thefts in California not being called in due to the increase in dollar amount threshold or if areas with especially high crime levels are purposely not reporting).
Posted on 6/11/24 at 12:34 pm to loogaroo
I trust the FBI, lol
Posted on 6/11/24 at 12:34 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
This is as dumb as crediting Rudy G for NYC's crime decrease
You are a loopy loon.
Posted on 6/11/24 at 12:36 pm to Bard
quote:
caveats, of course, for things like thefts in California not being called in due to the increase in dollar amount threshold or if areas with especially high crime levels are purposely not reporting)
I really only focus on the violent crime because property crimes are all over the place state to state.
quote:
If they are comparing the stats from the reporting entities against only the previous stats from those same entities, then that's still a good statistical sample
I think they do both, but the links I provided for NYC and LA are clearly site-specific and comparable to the same area
Posted on 6/11/24 at 12:37 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
You are a loopy loon.
Rudy had the fortune to enact a lot of "tough on crime" policies during an era where crime went down everywhere.
So, initially, we confused the correlation (Rudy's policies and crime in NYC going down) with causation (which we still haven't fully explained, but it goes well beyond NYC).
The good thing is we appear to know exactly what led to the crime spike 2020-2022 (Covid-related policies)
Posted on 6/11/24 at 12:40 pm to Great Plains Drifter
Just like the economic and employment numbers, they just decided to outright fake the numbers. Also, if the local police aren't following up on crimes, people stop reporting them. Which if what's going on.
Posted on 6/11/24 at 12:45 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
but the links I provided for NYC and LA are clearly site-specific and comparable to the same area
I don't know about LA, but NYC is facing a rather hefty police shortage (while having a big problem with so many illegals). I have to wonder what impact that has on reporting (both on people not reporting because they know or believe nothing will get done, as well as if there are enough people staffed to answer all the calls coming in). We've seen not long ago where New Orleans was so bad off there was a district with only a single patrol officer, for example.
If this story gains traction, we'll see responses from various places which will either prove or disprove Garland's claim.
Posted on 6/11/24 at 12:46 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
You are a loopy loon.
"Modern progressive apologist."
Posted on 6/11/24 at 12:46 pm to Bard
quote:
. I have to wonder what impact that has on reporting (both on people not reporting because they know or believe nothing will get done, as well as if there are enough people staffed to answer all the calls coming in). We've seen not long ago where New Orleans was so bad off there was a district with only a single patrol officer, for example.
But, again, hard to do this with the top tier of violent crimes.
A police shortage may be difficult in preventing murders, but they're not going to be able to cover them up.
Posted on 6/11/24 at 12:47 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
"Modern progressive apologist."
My comments have nothing to do with partisanship or political ideology
We still don't know why crime got so bad in the 70s-90s and why it collapsed even faster thereafter. It certainly was not related to partisanship.
Posted on 6/11/24 at 12:47 pm to loogaroo
When you stop counting crime perpetrated by "some people", of course the #s go down...
Posted on 6/11/24 at 12:48 pm to jrobic4
quote:
When you stop counting crime perpetrated by "some people", of course the #s go down...
And now racism has entered the chat
Posted on 6/11/24 at 12:49 pm to loogaroo
Not believing anything from the FBI
Posted on 6/11/24 at 12:52 pm to TigerIron
quote:
Just like the economic and employment numbers, they just decided to outright fake the numbers
and changing the definition of "vaccine" during all the china flu crap.
the left try really hard to help self proclaimed I am smarter than you people like sfp to be able to state certain statistics, and argue for policies.
i am 100% sure there are other definitions or numbers that have been "adjusted" to make a story more tolerable.
Posted on 6/11/24 at 1:01 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
This is as dumb as crediting Rudy G for NYC's crime decrease
*smdh* Some of us experience the pre and post-Rudy NYC. Did you?
So speaking of "dumb", please cease and desist on opining on sh# you have MINUS-ZERO idea of what you're talking about. (is your (D) Smart-Chip glitching again?)
Posted on 6/11/24 at 1:02 pm to Liberator
quote:
*smdh* Some of us experience the pre and post-Rudy NYC. Did you?
Did you have experience anywhere else of note pre and post Rudy?
Just so you know, they all had the same thing happen.
Only NYC had Rudy's policies.
Posted on 6/11/24 at 1:08 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
But, again, hard to do this with the top tier of violent crimes.
A police shortage may be difficult in preventing murders, but they're not going to be able to cover them up.
I don't disagree on homicides, anything else could be debated.
If the trend is accurate (and they well may be), I would have to wonder if they are dropping due to people having to work more (and often take on extra jobs) just to keep their heads above water.
Posted on 6/11/24 at 1:09 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
People fought this data for years pre-Covid when it was clear violent crime was decreasing. They're just doubling down now because the data still doesn't conform to their preferred fear porn/emotional response.
We know violent crime was terrible form the mid-70s to the mid-90s, and then crashed over the next 25 years (even though people still try to argue this).
We know violent crime spiked with Covid and the riots in 2020 and kept going up through at least 2021 and some of 2022.
It appears that we're going back to a pre-2020 level of violent crime, which makes all the sense in the world when you look at it logically (and the effects of the Covid era keep decreasing).
This is 100% correct. And this drop in violent crime is happening because of the aging of America. The young demographic is decreasing in size, so naturally crime is going down.
Posted on 6/11/24 at 1:10 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Did you have experience anywhere else of note pre and post Rudy?
Irrelevant. NOT chasing your red herrings.
You claimed "crediting Rudy G for NYC's crime decrease" was "dumb." He did. Big Time.
Why should I aid and abet your denial of reality and political delusions and wishcasting?
This post was edited on 6/11/24 at 1:11 pm
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