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Emerson NC Poll - Tied - Good news for TRUMP inside
Posted on 10/16/20 at 9:47 am
Posted on 10/16/20 at 9:47 am
I looked into the details of the latest Emerson poll and found the results to be very good for TRUMP. The enthusiasm gap between the candidates is real, and this is a consistent theme in almost every swing state poll I look at.
- Of those saying they'll vote Biden, 18.1% are "Very Excited" to vote for him while 35.4% of TRUMP voters are "Very Excited" to vote for TRUMP
- If you add in the 3 "Excited" responses - Extremely, Very or Mildly, TRUMP beats Biden 93.8% vs. 85.8% (perhaps the most important aspect of this entire poll)
- 48.2% of respondents approve of TRUMP's job performance vs. 46.7% who disapprove
Of note - Sample was D+6, Female +6 and 33.8% of respondents were Unaffiliated with either party
- Of those saying they'll vote Biden, 18.1% are "Very Excited" to vote for him while 35.4% of TRUMP voters are "Very Excited" to vote for TRUMP
- If you add in the 3 "Excited" responses - Extremely, Very or Mildly, TRUMP beats Biden 93.8% vs. 85.8% (perhaps the most important aspect of this entire poll)
- 48.2% of respondents approve of TRUMP's job performance vs. 46.7% who disapprove
Of note - Sample was D+6, Female +6 and 33.8% of respondents were Unaffiliated with either party
7
Posted on 10/16/20 at 9:51 am to TakingStock
Trump won NC by 3.8 percent. I'm not worried about NC
Posted on 10/16/20 at 9:52 am to ChexMix
awfully nice for their senate candidate to crater too
Posted on 10/16/20 at 9:52 am to ChexMix
quote:
Trump won NC by 3.8 percent. I'm not worried about NC
I'm not either, but NC actually looks to be one of the tougher swing states for him this election cycle (unlike GA which is Democratic fools' gold). With that said, the path becomes very difficult without NC because then he needs 2 Midwestern states or NV + Michigan.
Posted on 10/16/20 at 9:53 am to TakingStock
Trump will not lose NC. NC is all Trump.
Posted on 10/16/20 at 9:56 am to TakingStock
D+6 sample? So Trump is up like 5 is what you're telling me.
Posted on 10/16/20 at 10:04 am to gthog61
quote:
awfully nice for their senate candidate to crater too
Yep, that will help to suppress Dem turn out.
Increased Trump turn out and suppressed Dem turn out equals a bigger win this time than the last election.
Posted on 10/16/20 at 10:07 am to TakingStock
NC is in the bag. Trump can thank the Adulterer for NC
Posted on 10/16/20 at 10:08 am to DougsMugs
Unaffiliated voters break for Thom Tillis over Cunningham 48% to 43% and Cunningham was up 6 in the last poll conducted in September. 38.3% of respondents said Cunningham's affair made it less likely they will vote for him.
Tillis wins that race.
Tillis wins that race.
Posted on 10/16/20 at 10:08 am to RileyTime
quote:
Trump will not lose NC. NC is all Trump.
Damn straight we are.
Posted on 10/16/20 at 10:09 am to gthog61
quote:
their senate candidate
quote:
In the race for U.S. Senate, Democrat Cal Cunningham polled statistically even with incumbent Republican Thom Tillis, 45% to 44%. 12% of likely voters polled remain undecided at this time. Unaffiliated voters are breaking for Tillis, 48% to 43%. The race tightened since September, when Cunningham led by 6 points.
Posted on 10/16/20 at 10:20 am to i am dan
quote:
Damn straight we are.
I can count the amount of Biden support I've seen on one hand.
Although I live in the outskirts of the city, there really seems to be no buzz at all around here for Biden.
Posted on 10/16/20 at 10:26 am to RileyTime
quote:
I can count the amount of Biden support I've seen on one hand.
Although I live in the outskirts of the city, there really seems to be no buzz at all around here for Biden.
Its the suburban vote that is the problem for Trump but I think as more and more comes out on Hunter's laptop it will force many of those to vote for a 3rd party rather than vote for Trump or Biden or they just won't vote at all. The laptop is the ultimate in suppression tools for Biden and at the same time it rejuvenates the Trump base. I'm still more concerned about losing Georgia right now than North Carolina.
Posted on 10/16/20 at 10:29 am to MrLSU
quote:
Its the suburban vote that is the problem for Trump
I will never understand this. Suburban = working class. Do that many working class people want to pay higher taxes? WTF?
Posted on 10/16/20 at 10:40 am to Honkus
Really liking Thom Tillis' chances at this point
Posted on 10/16/20 at 10:43 am to TakingStock
YUGE. I'm going to max NC when I get back from Mexico mates!
Posted on 10/16/20 at 1:21 pm to TakingStock
quote:
John Couvillon
@WinWithJMC
NORTH CAROLINA
First day in person early votes in. Bad news for Republicans:
(MAIL CUME): 556K, 50-18% Dem/Rep
(IN PERSON): 333K, 48-27% Dem/Rep
In other words, I'd have expected the in person voters to either be 50/50 Dem/Rep or with a GOP edge.
(1/2)
John Couvillon
@WinWithJMC
·
8h
Replying to
@WinWithJMC
Granted, this is ONE day, but 19% of the 2016 vote is already in, and Dems have a 49-22% headstart in a state that is 36-30% Dem/Rep by voter registrat https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1317037624670957569ion
(2/2)
Posted on 10/16/20 at 1:22 pm to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
First day in person early votes in.
Posted on 10/16/20 at 1:23 pm to boomtown143
If those numbers were reversed, you'd be on here screaming "LANDSLIDE"
Posted on 10/16/20 at 1:25 pm to TakingStock
Trump will win NC by as much, if not more, than he did in '16. Tillis will hang on and win by a percent or two.
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