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Started By
Message
Don’t bet on a blue wave this November
Posted on 5/31/26 at 5:20 am
Posted on 5/31/26 at 5:20 am
Kool-Aid perhaps, but an interesting contraian take to what the MSM is painting us with.
quote:
Don’t bet on a blue wave
by Daniel McCarthy
May 30, 2026
There are several reasons to think we won’t see a blue wave in this year’s midterm elections. A basic one is that the Democratic party simply isn’t very popular. In late May, Donald Trump’s approval ratings in the RealClear polling aggregate stood around 40 percent, which sounds bad. Yet Trump is more popular than his party – approval of the Republican brand was in the vicinity of 38 percent. And the Democrats’ ratings were even worse – standing, or one might say wilting, at about 36 percent.
Those figures are not to be confused with “generic ballot” polling, which asks voters which party they would prefer in the forthcoming election. Democrats have lately enjoyed a lead of some seven points over the GOP in that category. Normally a number like that would portend enormous gains for the Democrats in November.
...
Democrats misread their own good fortune, however. They assumed it augured well for 2024, which is one reason they were in no hurry to dispose of an already-deteriorating Biden. They were utterly unprepared for Trump’s electoral resurrection.
This year, the Democrats are following the playbook that disappointed Republicans in 2022. Rather than making a case for themselves, they’re hoping Trump’s lackluster approval ratings and the economic impact of the Iran war will defeat the GOP by default.
Yet it’s not only the 2022 midterms that suggest these calculations are wrong. In 2020 – not a good year for Trump, to say the least – Republicans actually gained more than a dozen seats in the House. In 2020 and 2022 alike, House races proved less sensitive to the prevailing winds than experts had imagined.
There were no dramatic changes in 2024, either: Republicans lost two House seats, despite Trump’s success in winning every battleground state and a popular-vote plurality. This year, whatever losses the GOP might be set to suffer will be blunted by the mid-decade redistricting that’s added about ten seats to the red column.
Democrats are praying November midterms follow the pattern of 2018’s, which did produce a wave for their party. Their strategy is the same: make the election a referendum on Trump. Democrats may have no strong proposals of their own, and they may enjoy even less public approval than Trump does. But as long as the focus is on him, not them, their own deficiencies will go unnoticed. The party can succeed merely by defining itself as anti-Trump.
LINK
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Posted on 5/31/26 at 5:25 am to NC_Tigah
I’m hoping for a an AOC OF account by Christmas.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 5:32 am to jizzle6609
quote:
I’m hoping for a an AOC OF account by Christmas.
That comes in 2029 after Vance or Rubio crushes what’s left of the Democratic Party and she is the VP or Presidential candidate and loses her NY Congressional seat.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 5:34 am to Tarps99
quote:
That comes in 2029 after Vance or Rubio crushes what’s left of the Democratic Party and she is the VP or Presidential candidate and loses her NY Congressional seat.
Oh I thought her running was a joke.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 5:42 am to jizzle6609
quote:
Oh I thought her running was a joke.
I just goes to show you how much of a JOKE the Democrat Party has become, they would consider to nominate someone who could barely run a coffee bar as Presidential material.
This post was edited on 5/31/26 at 5:44 am
Posted on 5/31/26 at 5:51 am to Tarps99
Please run AOC. The debates would be hilarious.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 6:11 am to NC_Tigah
It's like Rush always said, People don't want to vote just to be AGAINST something or someone. People want to vote to be FOR someone or something. Just being anti-Trump isn't going to make it for the dems.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 6:15 am to Tarps99
quote:
I just goes to show you how much of a JOKE the Democrat Party has become, they would consider to nominate someone who could barely run a coffee bar as Presidential materia
Oh come on now, shes far more qualified than that. Her comments in Germany showed her robust geopolitical knowledge and ability to think quickly and answer concisely.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 7:04 am to NC_Tigah
I’ve been saying this all year. The democrats have a golden opportunity and no discernible strategy. They are the absolute best at farking up any election advantage.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 7:15 am to NC_Tigah
A lot of those years are poor comparisons because they included a presidential election which brings out the voters. The worry this year, that republicans have not had in a long time, is voter disinterest. A lot of Trump voters are disappointed in him because of the Iran war and the lack of deportations.
I think the overall premise of that article might be correct. The democrats could have had a big year if they had moved to the center - stopped trafficking with trannies, quit pushing for reparations, and pledge to keep the border secure. Instead the tenor of the party is exhibited by AOC and Mamdani.
I think the overall premise of that article might be correct. The democrats could have had a big year if they had moved to the center - stopped trafficking with trannies, quit pushing for reparations, and pledge to keep the border secure. Instead the tenor of the party is exhibited by AOC and Mamdani.
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