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re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:17 pm to slackster
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:17 pm to slackster
quote:
I’m a pretty big proponent of data
Data can certainly be some good stuff, but also can be "garbage in, garbage out".
This post was edited on 11/2/20 at 9:18 pm
1
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:18 pm to slackster
I do ignore these polls. Trump is going to win, mark it down.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:19 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
Yep
it's not like Trump can't win, he just needs an even more historic polling error than last time
Look, I hope the polls get blown to pieces and we never hear from them again. I believe they serve no purpose to the republic other than to suppress turnout - that’s not a conspiracy theory as much as it’s simply human nature.
However, the anecdotal stories of folks saying they’re for Biden will need to be substantial to explain this error. It’s not like there are a ton of undecideds breaking last minute.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:20 pm to davyjones
quote:
Data can certainly be some good stuff, but also can be "garbage in, garbage out".
There is no doubt, and polls are particularly prone to that. I’m not trying to argue for/against them as much as I’m worried about the margins they’re showing.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:21 pm to slackster
quote:
other than to suppress turnout
I will never understand this theory, but that's okay, we can save it for another thread.
quote:
It’s not like there are a ton of undecideds breaking last minute.
The lack of undecided voters and the anticipated huge turnout are the main reasons I believe the polls this year.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:22 pm to davyjones
quote:
sure as hell don't believe that to be a fact, regardless of what says what. Certainly not. That's just me though.
I get that, but you have to start somewhere. If you assume they’ve been against you the entire time, lying the entire time, they are lying more now than ever. Whatever benchmark you want to use, Trump has a more difficult climb quantitatively than ever before.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:23 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
I will never understand this theory, but that's okay, we can save it for another thread.
We can - I’m just of the belief they’re a net negative for turnout. The general public has no benefit of knowing what the polls are. It influences behavior in a negative way, IMO.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:24 pm to A Menace to Sobriety
I always leave open all possibilities. I’ve seen too much shite in my day.
That said, Trump appears to have all the momentum heading into tomorrow. I’m confident, but still wary. Too much frickery can still happen.
That said, Trump appears to have all the momentum heading into tomorrow. I’m confident, but still wary. Too much frickery can still happen.
This post was edited on 11/2/20 at 9:26 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:25 pm to slackster
quote:
Trump has a more difficult climb quantitatively than ever before.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:25 pm to Scruffy
Only if he cheats
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:26 pm to A Menace to Sobriety
I think he does.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:28 pm to slackster
quote:
I am talking about polls.
The polls are manipulated to generate a specific outcome, not to report one.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:30 pm to Scruffy
Forget the polls. In 2016, Trump won WI, MI and PA by fractions of a point, not comfortable win margins. Before that those were reliable Democrat EVs. A simple regression to the mean, plus MN, and Biden wins.
This post was edited on 11/2/20 at 9:32 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:32 pm to A Menace to Sobriety
You are a lot smarter than your buddies. It’s over. Just relax
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:34 pm to slackster
quote:
Trump has a more difficult climb quantitatively than ever before.
Well I don't know if he does or not because I don't give the data on the matter any credibility. Data being polls in this case, of course. For all I know Trump's actually leading outright in places that say otherwise, and significantly so. And I don't think they're "against me," but I do think they against Trump and have the ability to make the polls say what they want them to say. Is that not completely possible, that they could make polls say what they want them to say if they want to??
This post was edited on 11/2/20 at 9:35 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:34 pm to Goldrush25
quote:
In 2016, Trump won WI, MI and PA by fractions of a point, not comfortable win margins. Before that those were reliable Democrat EVs. A simple regression to the mean, plus MN
Gary Johnson took almost 100,000 votes from Trump in Minnesota in 2016. Clinton won by 13,000.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:36 pm to A Menace to Sobriety
They obviously don’t follow the TD Political Board.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:37 pm to davyjones
quote:
Well I don't know if he does or not because I don't give the data on the matter any credibility.
That’s fine, but it’s the only data we have.
I’m not dumb - polls could be off again, that’s to be expected, hence MOE and other metrics.
To believe Trump is the true favorite you have to believe they’re lying more than ever (even R leaning pollsters). I’m not there yet, but I’d love to be wrong.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:38 pm to A Menace to Sobriety
An incumbent with a great economy never loses.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:40 pm to A Menace to Sobriety
I'm not as confident as most are on this forum. Maybe it's because I live in an area that grows more liberal by the day and that certainly doesn't help.
My concern has come from the number of Trump supporters I knew that jumped ship and the fact that I've yet to meet a liberal that converted.
My concern has come from the number of Trump supporters I knew that jumped ship and the fact that I've yet to meet a liberal that converted.
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