re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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You can see that based on the CURRENT growth rates we're seeing in the US we have until Early to Mid April before the healthcare system really starts to be saturated.

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can you elaborate because the experts are saying that 80% of people infected will be asymptomatic meaning, they won't need medical care. i realize you're going to point out that the number of cases needing medical care can still be high depending on the total number of infections but, as i said, there's been basically no testing so far. it's possible that if the testing actually gets off the ground (as in hundreds of thousands instead of 40k), we might find out that the number of infections isn't as high as the projections.

plus, the mortality HAS to include the context that a non trivial number of cases came from one facility with people who were 100% in the target demographic. even the diamond princess didn't have those numbers so they are skewing the mortality BIGLY. even on your chart, the number of actual vs predicted dropped dramatically in the last 48 hours. the number of deaths dropped for a second day.

so far the numbers for this virus are infinitesimal and that's with basically NO quarantine protocols up to this point. looking at other countries like italy is not a good barometer for the u.s.

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We had our highest number of deaths yesterday - 18

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the chart in the op says 8, not 18. either way, that doesn't even move the needle.

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Why don't you do it?

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something still doesn't add up. the cdc estimates that 34k people died in the 18-19 flu season. 61k the year before. no one was talking about the healthcare system being burdened. we shut down nothing. no nationwide quarantines.

the number of infections for the 17-18 flu season was 46mil. your chart has 14.8mil by apr 15. if 45mil didn't tax the system, i don't know if adding an additional 15mil would. i have no idea. and that's if that projection actually turns out to be anywhere near accurate and if the seasonal flu is anywhere near that particular year because it dropped 10mil the next year.

kneejerk reaction, these projections and what the cdc is advising seem WAYYYYYYYYYYY off.

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Well, it does tend to suggest we’re on the upswing still, unfortunately

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at a miniscule rate compared to season flu. we don't even know if this one will reach h1n1 numbers. not to mention summer is approaching and this flu doesn't even seriously affect children.

Yes to all those.

The daily growth rate continues to decline, now a 7 day trend.

The total number of cases is going up fast, currently sitting at a 4 day doubling.

well, mixed. the daily growth rate number is nice but, the worst day for deaths by far and the recoveries were almost non existent. however, again, the situation is complicated. it's possible that the deaths will continue to rise at an alarming rate as people who have been infected have the virus play out over a period of time and they lose their battle. moreover, the number of cases could go up sharply as testing starts to get underway. i know someone who just got tested a few hours ago and they were told that the cdc is providing the result in 3 to 5 days so there is still a sharp bottleneck.

even so, as results are available, the mortality rate could go way down even though those who contracted it are losing their battle. weird, fluid situation.

in addition to all this, i totally do not trust the numbers from any other country. they are essentially unreliable. heck, even our own numbers are not perfect

So the number of serious cases yesterday was zero but the number of deaths today was 22?

This shite hits fast apparently.

I think we’re about to hit the peak in number of deaths growth rate. The people who are dying now contracted the virus early on when hospitals and doctors didn’t know anything. Now that we have a basic understanding of what Is going on should give the people getting sick today a much better chance of survival.

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I think we’re about to hit the peak in number of deaths growth rate

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I see nothing to suggest that.