re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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again, this does not seem to be the case, for the reasons i have stated. the growth rate % has held steady over the last 7 days or so, not increased exponentially. i.e. 25x as opposed to x squared. the growth has been linear, not exponential. that is huge in terms of epidemiology/immunology

now, you could point to the last 2 days but i have explained how that is not exponential growth because of the lag. even if you did take the numbers at face value, the growth since 3/6 has been essentially linear.

i sense your heart is in the right place but it is frustrating that there is a lot of misinformation out there that is creating unnecessary panic

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If youre really serious about this consider this:
March 2: 100 total cases
March 11th: 1000 total cases
March 20th: 10,000 total cases (projected but well on the way- we will cross this line tomorrow)

Look at a logarithmic graph for the US. Its very apparent this is a constant exponential rate.
Eta: total cases, not new, and march 11th, not 9th

Eta2- I really hope you respond this is the second time you think I am putting out misinformation but you can't really point where.

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again, this does not seem to be the case, for the reasons i have stated. the growth rate % has held steady over the last 7 days or so, not increased exponentially. i.e. 25x as opposed to x squared. the growth has been linear, not exponential. that is huge in terms of epidemiology/immunology

now, you could point to the last 2 days but i have explained how that is not exponential growth because of the lag. even if you did take the numbers at face value, the growth since 3/6 has been essentially linear.

i sense your heart is in the right place but it is frustrating that there is a lot of misinformation out there that is creating unnecessary panic

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A linear growth rate will produce exponential growth in cases.

Now it will fall naturally at some point, but we are trying to reduce the growth rate, not just let it stay steady or increase. But we are going to see a lot of "new" cases this week as the labs process the backlog using the new platform.

Tex, thank you.

I like your idea, I can start doing that after I get 14 days of data saved. The challenge would be in the assumption of 14 days, is that the right number?

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ust read through this whole thread and not one person mentioned X factor. How many people have the thing and never got tested, didn't die and are already better or are just at home recovering because their symptoms aren't that bad?

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A lot, many that even know they have it are not getting tested. I know someone that got diagnosed as probable today at an urgent care and they just Told them to self quarantine and not to worry about getting tested.

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At the current rate of growth

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that's the problem right there. that number is highly fluid right now, particularly given the lag in test results. that's why i scolded ibchina for plucking a number out of context.

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it will most likely keep increasing from there

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more speculation. maybe accurate. maybe not. that's not the question i'm focused on.

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the flu has killed 22,000 people since October 2019

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not the most virulent outbreak. 2 years ago it was 3x worse.

Can you address your claim where you think I am giving out misinformation by claiming this is not an exponential curve?

Looking at the number of cases confirmed its a clear linear slope on a logarithmic graph, every day for the last 18 days. You know that means constant exponential growth.

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I was asking as far as other highly contagious viruses ,where the COVID fall on the spectrum?

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h1n1 was between 1.2 to 1.6. given the current worldwide trends, it should not be expected that covid-19 will be above that. mostly likely below. perhaps equal.

having said that, this outbreak has been quite perplexing. it seems to be a case of all or nothing. certain localities are getting inundated while others have no deaths at all. people who are not in the target demographic are succumbing while most cases are asymptomatic. it has been a complete mixed bag and that has made it more difficult to put a finger on the pulse of how it's playing out. doomsayers are definitely pouncing on the exceptionally bad cases which is unnecessary and needs to be tempered

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Its very apparent this is a constant exponential rate

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first, you are going back to march 2 which is arbitrary. i have said repeatedly that i am looking at 3-6 and onward. 429 cases to 9436 cases is not exponential over that time period. especially if you consider the lag in test results. going back further than that is very speculative which has been my point all along. there is debate as to when the first cases were circulating. that makes the variable you are using arbitrary.

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you can't really point where.

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it should be more than clear now. all you have to do is look at the growth rate % since 3-6.

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No, I think this is easily wrong

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which can't be said given the dearth of testing. we're still not even at 100k tests. it doesn't even matter right now. mortality for h1n1 wasn't well understood until at least a year after the outbreak. i see no reason to think this will be any different from any other strain of coronavirus. season flu strains are about the same r0 as h1n1 - ~1.3