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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 4/23/20 at 2:09 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 4/23/20 at 2:09 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
4/18/20 UPDATE: I am changing these updates to show the data for the US without NY State numbers included. The information and graphs presented in my updates going forward will all be from the perspective of omitting NY State results. All of the original data is still present on the tracker linked above
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
4/18/20 UPDATE: I am changing these updates to show the data for the US without NY State numbers included. The information and graphs presented in my updates going forward will all be from the perspective of omitting NY State results. All of the original data is still present on the tracker linked above
This post was edited on 4/23/20 at 2:22 pm
1
Posted on 4/23/20 at 2:18 pm to Chromdome35
How do we have negative daily cases? Was this a correction of previous days errors?
Posted on 4/23/20 at 2:23 pm to Lickitty Split
The numbers on the WoM site were out of wack for a few minutes...happened to be when I pulled them for my tracker. It's fixed now.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 5:50 pm to Chromdome35
Don Lemon will be crying tonight about this press conference.
Still ain't watching.
Still ain't watching.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 8:00 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
4/18/20 UPDATE: I am changing these updates to show the data for the US without NY State numbers included. The information and graphs presented in my updates going forward will all be from the perspective of omitting NY State results. All of the original data is still present on the tracker linked above
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
4/18/20 UPDATE: I am changing these updates to show the data for the US without NY State numbers included. The information and graphs presented in my updates going forward will all be from the perspective of omitting NY State results. All of the original data is still present on the tracker linked above
Posted on 4/23/20 at 8:09 pm to Chromdome35
The number of new cases outside of NY grew today, the 3rd straight day of growth. Deaths outside of NY, remained flat day over day. Deaths within NY are declining. This appears in the graph below.
Mortality continues to increase
After yesterday's record high test numbers, today's number was 120K lower, but still at the highest we've seen for normal days. It appears more testing capacity is coming online.
With 193K tests the % positive for the day was 16.7%. I suspect we'll see the % positive tests declining somewhat with the additional capacity.
Doesn't this put the % positive rate into the same ball park as that study that come out today?
Mortality continues to increase
After yesterday's record high test numbers, today's number was 120K lower, but still at the highest we've seen for normal days. It appears more testing capacity is coming online.
With 193K tests the % positive for the day was 16.7%. I suspect we'll see the % positive tests declining somewhat with the additional capacity.
Doesn't this put the % positive rate into the same ball park as that study that come out today?
This post was edited on 4/23/20 at 8:11 pm
Posted on 4/23/20 at 8:21 pm to Chromdome35
quote:That’s not true because you’re number are incorrect:
Deaths outside of NY, remained flat day over day.
There were 2325 total deaths, so minus New York’s 507, there were 1818, 139 more than the 1679 you have in your table. That represents an 8.2% over yesterday’s 1680, and the total deaths of 29,123 represents a 6.7% increase over yesterday’s 27,305.
I’m addition, that puts the 7 day average at 1515, a 2.4% increase over yesterday’s 1480 and 16.4% increase over last Thursday’s 1302 (which is about a 2.2% daily increase week over week).
Posted on 4/23/20 at 8:23 pm to buckeye_vol
It seems obvious that there is a temperature and population density piece to the puzzle that can’t really be separated from each other.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 8:28 pm to Chromdome35
quote:And this seems to be a natural trend everywhere as deaths lag cases. I think we’ll approach a 7% CFR nationally when it’s all said and done. Of course we know that actual infections will be far higher than confirmed cases, but deaths will still lag infections and it’s probably a longer lag in reality.
Mortality continues to increase
Posted on 4/23/20 at 8:31 pm to the808bass
quote:Well I think density should be obvious since density is a population level measure of “social distance.”
It seems obvious that there is a temperature and population density piece to the puzzle that can’t really be separated from each other.
At the same time, I think greater density corresponds to a greater likelihood the virus was present earlier as well, and as in the case of NYC, global cities present an even greater likelihood, particularly those where people were coming from hotspots that we weren’t even aware of at the time (Italy in NYC).
This post was edited on 4/23/20 at 8:32 pm
Posted on 4/23/20 at 8:31 pm to buckeye_vol
WoM updated the last three days deaths and I didn't catch it. Thank you for giving me a heads up.
And you're right regarding the death numbers.
There is a definite 5-day upward trend in both new cases and deaths outside of NY. The upward trend in cases is probably related to the increase in testing volume; however, the death numbers upward trend is concerning.
And you're right regarding the death numbers.
There is a definite 5-day upward trend in both new cases and deaths outside of NY. The upward trend in cases is probably related to the increase in testing volume; however, the death numbers upward trend is concerning.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 8:39 pm to Chromdome35
quote:I think it’s clear that NYC was 2 or 3 weeks ahead the spread as the nation as a whole. Luckily that means everywhere else was shutting down earlier in that spread, so as we’ve pushed the reproductive rate downwards, there was far fewer people to spread it.
The upward trend in cases is probably related to the increase in testing volume; however, the death numbers upward trend is concerning.
That being said, I think other than hospital capacity, NYC will be in a better place to open up than other places, given that in a couple of weeks, they may have 25-30 percent of their population infected, and certain populations where spread is easier within AND OUTSIDE THE group, and more significant as a group (healthcare workers; police; transit workers; other essential worked during the outbreak, etc.) may be near herd immunity level.
So I suspect over the few months, post-lockdown and outside of NYC, we’ll see a much more sustained levels elsewhere with a few hotspots popping up as well.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 8:39 pm to Chromdome35
I feel like something is missing because I don't see any indication in the numbers that we are past the peak.
I listen to the press conferences where they talk about how positive the trends are and I wonder what are they looking at??? Is it hospitalization numbers? If the number of hospitalizations is going down, why are deaths going up, is it the lag?
I listen to the press conferences where they talk about how positive the trends are and I wonder what are they looking at??? Is it hospitalization numbers? If the number of hospitalizations is going down, why are deaths going up, is it the lag?
Posted on 4/23/20 at 8:40 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Is it hospitalization numbers? If the number of hospitalizations is going down, why are deaths going up, is it the lag?
Deaths are clearing the hospitals and not replaced by new sick people
Posted on 4/23/20 at 8:41 pm to Chromdome35
Hospital bed utilization due to covid19 is dropping
Posted on 4/23/20 at 8:43 pm to Tiguar
And i suspect with expanded testing a lot of these new cases are less sick than positives from a couple weeks ago
Posted on 4/23/20 at 8:47 pm to Cosmo
Yeah we just did 300k tests yesterday, I wouldn’t be alarmed by a relative rise in new cases the next few days.
We already know there are cases out there we aren’t seeing because of our 7% CFR. This virus is not lethal to 7% of everyone in infects
We already know there are cases out there we aren’t seeing because of our 7% CFR. This virus is not lethal to 7% of everyone in infects
This post was edited on 4/23/20 at 9:24 pm
Posted on 4/23/20 at 8:50 pm to Cosmo
chromedome dude, more testing = more cases confirmed. That doesn't mean the cases are severe enough to be placed in the hospital.
Eventually, we will get to the point where we can do 1 million tests a day.
And the deaths happening are NOT from healthy people.
Millions in our country not on the confirmed list have already had the virus and had no issue.
Eventually, we will get to the point where we can do 1 million tests a day.
And the deaths happening are NOT from healthy people.
Millions in our country not on the confirmed list have already had the virus and had no issue.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 8:55 pm to Chromdome35
quote:Cases are probably a primary one, which can be deceiving because for a while cases were increasing at a lower rate than previously but testing was increasing at an even lower rate. So I think this gave a false sense of nearing a peak.
I listen to the press conferences where they talk about how positive the trends are and I wonder what are they looking at?
Take this week as the opposite of what happened earlier, using the cases and test data from the COVID-19 tracking page. The cases decreased by 4.8% of the last week compared to the previous week, while the number of tests increased by 22.6%.
In my interpretation, a decrease in positive cases with same decrease in tests (same percentage positive) would indicate a decrease in positive cases, and as the change in tests exceeds the change in positive cases, then the true decline is even greater.
You might be able to take the change in positive cases (0.9573) divided by the change in total tests (1.226) and get an approximate to “true” change in positive cases (0.7807; 21.9% decrease).
And using 2 weeks ago compared to 1 week ago shows that both decrease (5.2% decrease in testing; 4.5 decrease in positive cases), but since testing deceased more, there was a slight 0.84% increase increase in 2 “true cases.”
So I think sometime in the previous week (4/10 to 4/16) we hit the “true peak” in cases. So we should expect the “true peak,” in deaths to be between 7-14 days from now, which seems to have been this past Tuesday.
This post was edited on 4/23/20 at 9:07 pm
Posted on 4/23/20 at 8:57 pm to Tiguar
I know that here in Tennessee, there are several places that are testing people regardless of symptoms. I suspect strongly that they have a bunch of the older tests and want to get rid of them, but didn't have enough symptomatic people. We will see in the next day or so what the results of those are. I know they did 400+ in Knoxville earlier this week. We may or may have an increase in positives, but we will have some more asymptomatic data too.
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