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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Posted on 4/11/20 at 9:12 pm to
Posted by Lickitty Split
Inside
Member since Apr 2017
4194 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 9:12 pm to
How come Louisiana doesn’t report recoveries? How many other states do not?

It seems like this may be skewing the active case count.
Posted by mostbesttigerfanever
TD platinum member suite in TS
Member since Jan 2010
5034 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 9:19 pm to
I assume he wasn’t smart enough to know why it was so high initially then went down
Posted by Ingloriousbastard
Member since May 2015
917 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 9:32 pm to
Another overall positive day. Daily new cases and fatalities both dropped vs yesterday and continue to indicate flattening.

As far as number of tests administered is concerned, I’m seeing daily ranges between 229,287-122,601 this week. Variances day to day seem to range 15-25% up or down. I’m not sure I’d consider this to be flat.
Posted by uppermidwestbama
Member since Nov 2014
2097 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 9:39 pm to
The mistake you are making is expecting an even number of people going to the doctor for an illness daily. It doesn't work that way. Many cities have literally closed their testing centers since people never showed up nor needed it.

The testing centers that are active are pretty rare around the country.

People freaked out and this was a complete overblown power grab that is destorying poor families.
Posted by Ingloriousbastard
Member since May 2015
917 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 9:46 pm to
Sorry, my point wasn’t clear. I’m saying that the daily tests administered number is jumping up and down every day (which is to be expected for something like this). Meaning it doesn’t seem to be creating an artificial ceiling for new cases.

Since only symptomatic people get tested, the number of tests administered should not be seen as keeping the daily new case count down. People who don’t show symptoms aren’t getting tested, as there is no need.
Posted by uppermidwestbama
Member since Nov 2014
2097 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 9:56 pm to
Correct. There is no ceiling by the testing being done.

In another month we will have a lot of testing ability out there that it just starts to flood the market and testing starts to become a preventive measure than a confirmation. Meaning, testing athletes every day (along with body temp checks) to catch any changes before a break out happens.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40251 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:08 pm to
quote:

How come Louisiana doesn’t report recoveries? How many other states do not?


They don't track it. A while ago, the "state doctor" was with the parish president in Lafayette. He said in a presser that they consider a recovery when you've gone 72 hours without meds or symptoms. But that they can't track those at home in quarantine who tested positive.

Um, I would think that they could "try"?? But he said no. I'm guessing they track the hospital discharges but don't know that for fact.
Posted by Nawlens Gator
louisiana
Member since Sep 2005
5963 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:44 pm to

quote:

How come Louisiana doesn’t report recoveries? How many other states do not?


Tracking recoveries is a waste of time and resources, and it saves no one. Those resources are better spent tracking new cases.

Posted by Jinglebob
Member since Jan 2020
948 posts
Posted on 4/12/20 at 1:56 am to
From the worldometer site:

Total cases: 533,115

Recoveries: 30,502

Deaths: 20,580

Serious/critical cases: 11,471

Mild cases: 470,562


Considering we have tested over a million people in the last week and there are only 11k serious/critical cases things are looking great.

If we could just convince the sheep that 1k-2k deaths/day of old, fat diabetics is no big deal. For perspective, 1500+ die each day from cancer and 1500+ die each day from heart attacks.
Posted by uppermidwestbama
Member since Nov 2014
2097 posts
Posted on 4/12/20 at 7:27 am to
For today I am crossing the fingers that we hit just below 30k confirmed cases. If we do hit 30k, I am hoping it doesn't surpass 32k.

If we hit below 30k today it starts the gradual decline in new confirmed cases, but that is going to eb and flow with some high days and some lower days.

Posted by Athanatos
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
8205 posts
Posted on 4/12/20 at 8:34 am to
That US military number is interesting. You have to think testing availability is far higher among that population, itself a cross-section of Americans. It being so close to the mortality rate found in the German study (0.37%) makes me wonder if the military mortality rate could be a useful proxy for the US until other studies are complete.
Posted by ValDawgsta
Member since Jan 2020
1542 posts
Posted on 4/12/20 at 8:38 am to
Fair point, but I’d also imagine the military demographic is far healthier than the general population so that could explain the lower death rate too.
Posted by DMAN1968
Member since Apr 2019
13518 posts
Posted on 4/12/20 at 8:53 am to
quote:

For today I am crossing the fingers that we hit just below 30k confirmed cases. If we do hit 30k, I am hoping it doesn't surpass 32k.

Unfortunately we've already seen that weekend numbers are spotty at best and seem to come back around Tuesday or Wednesday. Also, it's Easter Sunday...do you think that will affect testing reports?
Posted by TopFlightSecurity
Watertown, NY
Member since Dec 2018
1318 posts
Posted on 4/12/20 at 9:38 am to
quote:

Fair point, but I’d also imagine the military demographic is far healthier than the general population so that could explain the lower death rate too.


Younger and not so many fatties like general population.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129629 posts
Posted on 4/12/20 at 9:40 am to
quote:

Also, it's Easter Sunday...do you think that will affect testing reports?


It undoubtedly will. Somewhat counterintuitively, however, that may make Thursday and Friday slightly larger than normal. Because we’re dealing with throughput in testing somewhat more than actual tests, we may see a lower average across Thursday to Tuesday with Thursday and Friday being the high(er) points.

I would guess there was a push to get as much testing out the door on those days in anticipation of some people not working the weekend.

And, that could all be wrong and we’ll see just wild fluctuations like we see every weekend.
Posted by LosLobos111
Austere
Member since Feb 2011
45385 posts
Posted on 4/12/20 at 9:52 am to
No deaths here in Tulsa county here for 2 days
This post was edited on 4/12/20 at 9:53 am
Posted by uppermidwestbama
Member since Nov 2014
2097 posts
Posted on 4/12/20 at 10:00 am to
My state has a total of 263 tests that need to be processed as of this morning. This shite is almost over in my state.

Posted by uppermidwestbama
Member since Nov 2014
2097 posts
Posted on 4/12/20 at 10:02 am to
There are 179 in the ICU across the entire state that have COVID19 so the eventual death of those will lead to the freaks freaking out and acting like the end of the world is here.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129629 posts
Posted on 4/12/20 at 10:05 am to
You could see as high as 50% of those recover.

One of the Kansas City hospitals is playing the theme to Rocky whenever a recovered Covid patient discharges.
Posted by uppermidwestbama
Member since Nov 2014
2097 posts
Posted on 4/12/20 at 10:07 am to
California hasn't updated anything in their public database since Friday around lunch. So who knows how many tests they have pending this morning.
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