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re: COVID-19 not found in isolation

Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:12 am to
Posted by jonnyanony
Member since Nov 2020
14851 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:12 am to
quote:

How? Changes to the death threshold are most influenced by most recent factors - how does two mild flu seasons magically adjust the threshold for the possibility of a hard flu season?


Rolling windows, standard deviation itself. Basic 101 stats stuff.

The graph at the top of the page shows a pretty obvious diversion during seasonal 2019.
Posted by GeauxFightingTigers1
Member since Oct 2016
12574 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:13 am to
quote:

I believe the J&J vaxx was produced the old school way, but I might be wrong.


They all target the spike protein.
Posted by jonnyanony
Member since Nov 2020
14851 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:14 am to
quote:

That’s not what I axed.


You're asking preliminary versus total? I'm a little confused as to your premise in the second part of that post. If you're assuming they might fudge the numbers why wouldn't they have done that in December?
Posted by SortsaUsl
Member since Feb 2021
156 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:15 am to
Nature.com, lol!!! Really got em now!!
Posted by jonnyanony
Member since Nov 2020
14851 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:17 am to
quote:

Nature.com, lol!!! Really got em now!!


Scientific Reports - where this study originated - is one of the most cited journals on earth.
This post was edited on 8/5/21 at 8:19 am
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
39490 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:17 am to
What’s going on in here? Is the OP’s post bullshite or not?
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135476 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:18 am to
quote:

bullshite
Posted by jonnyanony
Member since Nov 2020
14851 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:19 am to
quote:

What’s going on in here? Is the OP’s post bullshite or not?


The answer to this question, 99% of the time, is "yes." Someone finds some bullshite on the internet, lacks the intellectual curiosity to cross-check it, spreads it all of the internet and the cycle continues.
This post was edited on 8/5/21 at 8:20 am
Posted by NashvilleTider
Your Mom
Member since Jan 2007
15186 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:20 am to
Lol at people actually believing the death numbers - if your argument is based on death numbers you’ve already lost. Those numbers aren’t real.
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
21785 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:20 am to
quote:

Just to be clear on two things:

1. You believe statistical modeling doesn't account for variance in standard deviation (or as you call it, "ebb and flow")?

Just stick to what I actually say.

1. A bad flu season that kills 100K sick/frail people will push the excess death threshold up, not down.

2. A mild flu season that many very sick/frail survive (negative excess deaths) will push the excess death threshold down - were talking only about the impact of flu here.

3. When you have 2 or 3 mild flu seasons followed by a very hard flu season, you have created waves in the death -v- excess death metric.

quote:

2. You've now decided these deaths are now from the flu and not from a surge in cancer and heart attack deaths?

No. I said nothing like this.

I’m saying Covid is a f’n nasty virus for those that are already very unwell. And I’m arguing that when you’re 60 years old and 100 lbs overweight, have diabetes, you smoke and have had 4 heart attacks - then contract Covid and in your critically diseased/weak state, die during a fifth heart attack, Covid didn’t kill you.
Posted by jonnyanony
Member since Nov 2020
14851 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:21 am to
quote:

Lol at people actually believing the death numbers - if your argument is based on death numbers you’ve already lost. Those numbers aren’t real.


This position - "I don't believe anything" - is at least more defensible than "all of those people died of heart attacks and cancer."
Posted by jonnyanony
Member since Nov 2020
14851 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:21 am to
quote:

1. A bad flu season that kills 100K sick/frail people will push the excess death threshold up, not down.

2. A mild flu season that many very sick/frail survive (negative excess deaths) will push the excess death threshold down - were talking only about the impact of flu here.

3. When you have 2 or 3 mild flu seasons followed by a very hard flu season, you have created waves in the death -v- excess death metric.


Again, all accounted for in the modeling. They don't just go off of "last year" or whatever.
Posted by stuckintexas
Austin & DFW
Member since Sep 2009
2899 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:22 am to
I was replying to a post asking this question:
quote:

So, why the synthetic vaccines then? Why not make a vaccine using part of the virus like usual?

I believe the J&J vaccine was created using the old school method of taking the virus, dumbing it down, and introducing the weakened version of it to the body to fight. As opposed to the "synthetic" mRNA vaccines the the previous poster asked about.
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
21785 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:26 am to
quote:

Rolling windows, standard deviation itself. Basic 101 stats stuff

So you’re suggesting the algorithm foresees both an upcoming mild flu seasons and an upcoming harsh flu season at the same time? That makes no sense.

And it flies in the face of reality. Just go look at the excess death graph and focus on flu seasons year to year.
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
21785 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:32 am to
quote:

Again, all accounted for in the modeling. They don't just go off of "last year" or whatever.

Are you arguing that “last year” is not considered in the modeling? What are the algorithm’s predictions based on if not history (more than one year), at least in great part?

Also, there’s a difference between “accounted for” and “being accurate” - don’t forget that.
This post was edited on 8/5/21 at 8:36 am
Posted by zatetic
Member since Nov 2015
5677 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:34 am to
quote:

So if it doesn’t exist, what exactly is killing everyone around the world?


In the United States, the rate of people dying didn't change. As others said, it was a flu. What probably killed a lot of people was being intubated since that doesn't help with what the spike proteins were doing.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
125274 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:35 am to
quote:

You're asking preliminary versus total? I'm a little confused as to your premise in the second part of that post. If you're assuming they might fudge the numbers why wouldn't they have done that in December?


The numbers reported on December 31st aren’t the final numbers. I would be interested to see what the CDC reported on Dec 31st of 2019 versus the final 2019 numbers. In other words, how many deaths lagged the last week of the year.

If there’s a huge aberration year over year, I’ll probably chalk it up to CDC frickery and move on.
Posted by zatetic
Member since Nov 2015
5677 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:37 am to
If you were correct then Alberta wouldn't be free. That case goes all the way to the Queen now and no one could prove it in isolation.
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
78031 posts
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:38 am to
quote:


So, why the synthetic vaccines then? Why not make a vaccine using part of the virus like usual? bullshite
What does this have to do with your claim that it hasn't been isolated? Why not build automobiles like they did in the 1970s and before? Why use advances in technology?

quote:

Compared to other vaccine platforms, mRNA vaccines possess unique advantages including versatility, efficient delivery, use of the protein translational machinery of the host, and short developmental time
Intl Journal of Biological Sciences
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