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Message
COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County (There she goes)
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:08 pm
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:08 pm
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
Mortality rate is going way way way down. LOL Going to look like the Titanic in its last few minutes.
quote:
These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
Mortality rate is going way way way down. LOL Going to look like the Titanic in its last few minutes.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 12:10 pm
10
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:11 pm to GeauxFightingTigers1
Translation:
1) Highly contagious
2) Very low mortality rate
It's possible that tens of millions of Americans had this virus at some point but remained asymptomatic.
1) Highly contagious
2) Very low mortality rate
It's possible that tens of millions of Americans had this virus at some point but remained asymptomatic.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:16 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
1) Highly contagious 2) Very low mortality rate
At a very high ramp-up rate/volume, this still translates to thousands of people dead and overwhelming hot-spot healthcare institutions.
But yeah, mortality rate is extremely low. Does the "prevention/cure" over-shadow the virus?
In the end, I think it absolutely will.
Wars will be fought over this.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:30 pm to GeauxFightingTigers1
I tried the link it didn't work for me
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:31 pm to GeauxFightingTigers1
So it’s “Just the flu bro”?
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:32 pm to GeauxFightingTigers1
Wait until they start looking at negative flu tests for those presenting with flu-like symptoms late last year and very early this year
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:33 pm to Floating Change Up
quote:
At a very high ramp-up rate/volume, this still translates to thousands of people dead and overwhelming hot-spot healthcare institutions.
No that means we would have already had that happen, but it never did.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:35 pm to roadGator
quote:They’ll find that up to 50% of those who ACTUALLY HAVE THE FLU will test negative since they’ve known this for a long time.
Wait until they start looking at negative flu tests for those presenting with flu-like symptoms late last year and very early this year
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:37 pm to waiting4saturday
quote:
So it’s “Just the flu bro”?
Yeah more or less, but it actually could be significantly less than the flu, depends on whether we have immunity.
- the vast majority of people are asymptomatic
- even the ones that showed symptoms, not enough to go to the doctor or hospital
- death rates will probably be significantly less than the flu (?)
- its still possible that immunity occurs
The data we had in February all pointed to these conclusions. I don't want to say its a nothing burger because if you are in your last < 1%, this disease could take you to the bone yard.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 12:38 pm
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:37 pm to GeauxFightingTigers1
Santa Clara county is also 42% Asian and is the epicenter of Silicon Valley. So there was LOTS of travel to and from China.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:39 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
Santa Clara county is also 42% Asian and is the epicenter of Silicon Valley. So there was LOTS of travel to and from China.
We're talking silent infected here, although health and age of people could change around the country as far as rate... basically this thing was around for a long time.
Its still possible in places in like NO and NYC the death rate will be higher than CA, that's not the issue.. the issue is tons more people have it.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 12:41 pm
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:42 pm to GeauxFightingTigers1
Fixed
quote:
Results The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:43 pm to GeauxFightingTigers1
I've been saying for weeks that this virus has been here a lot longer than people realize. A lot longer.
Our government got all of this wrong. I understand why they did what they did, but it was all wrong-all people invovled in this.
Sad that our economy had to take a hit over this.
Life goes on though.
Our government got all of this wrong. I understand why they did what they did, but it was all wrong-all people invovled in this.
Sad that our economy had to take a hit over this.
Life goes on though.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:45 pm to GeauxFightingTigers1
Glad the current admin shut us down
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:48 pm to uppermidwestbama
quote:
I've been saying for weeks that this virus has been here a lot longer than people realize. A lot longer. Our government got all of this wrong. I understand why they did what they did, but it was all wrong-all people invovled in this. Sad that our economy had to take a hit over this. Life goes on though.
We already had data in February that more or less show the silent infected were high. But let's say we didn't know, either way the present policies really didn't make much sense considering the infection rates... and the limited impact of a small group of people.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:50 pm to GeauxFightingTigers1
quote:
We already had data in February that more or less show the silent infected were high.
You’re mixing two very distinct groups.
Asymptomatic carriers and previously exposed and recovered are totally different groups. We’ve known about the first for a long time. We are only starting to learn about the second.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:56 pm to JuiceTerry
quote:
JuiceTerry
You are just really, really, really stupid, aren't you?
Posted on 4/17/20 at 1:00 pm to the808bass
quote:
You’re mixing two very distinct groups. Asymptomatic carriers and previously exposed and recovered are totally different groups. We’ve known about the first for a long time. We are only starting to learn about the second.
Yes and no, because we had the Princess Diamond data which suggested this was the most likely outcome, but not proven as no anti-body test at that time.
I gave a thumbs up, yes, two different groups but even than the data was showing what they are proving now.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 1:01 pm
Posted on 4/17/20 at 1:17 pm to GeauxFightingTigers1
Fox News reporting this study as we speak.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 1:21 pm to JuiceTerry
quote:
Glad the current admin shut us down
What a fricking tool you are.
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