Core GDP growth for 3rd quarter

Doesn't matter. The media's convinced the morons that we are in a recession, if not depression, and they are lapping it up and are gonna vote for some of that sweet communist prosperity thats been promised.

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Now lets dispel a couple arguments up front.

Its capital investment in AI. Not all of the capital investment is in AI. And what would you suggest the companies spend it on, cutting technology like buggy whips and covered wagons, versus something that will change the world.

Next, credit card debt is at an all time high. No kidding, thats what happens when you let in 20 million people who dont have to worry about it because they will be heading home soon.

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Here are some questions which aren't being asked. In order:

1. What is the definition of "inflation"?

2. What's the ratio for GDP growth to deficit dollars? What was it 10 years ago? What was it 20 years ago? What was it 30 years ago?

3. What percentage of US citizens are on some sort of federal largess program? (including SS, Medicare, etc)

The summary answer for those who don't have the time to look it up is that GDP growth is dependent on high deficit spending, which creates/maintains inflation. Whether folks want to admit it or not, we're running in MMT territory now, except that money isn't being destroyed in an attempt to fight inflation.

If you can't eat it or put it in your car to make it go, people don't know what it is nor do they understand or care.

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Next, credit card debt is at an all time high. No kidding, thats what happens when you let in 20 million people who dont have to worry about it because they will be heading home soon.

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This right here is a talking point that needs correcting. This number includes those of us who pay off the balance every month as well as those who are falling behind. Roughly half of the households included in this “credit card debt is at all time highs” pay their cards off each month. It’s just the credit agencies taking a snapshot at the time of balances.

A better reporting number is 90 day delinquent number, which hover around 12.5%. This number was 8% in 2019 and in 2010-2011 it was in the 13% range.

90 day delinquent numbers have improved a bit in Q2 of 2026.

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Core GDP takes our the increase/decrease in govt spending

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Yes and no. While Core does specifically remove government spending (G), it's only direct government spending.

The formula is basically GDP = C + I + G + NX
(Consumption + Investment + Government spending + Net eXports)

All Core does is strip out "G". Since that category is only direct spending, not indirect spending, it just obfuscates the problem with deficit spending's impact on Core GDP.

For example, transfer payments (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment benefits, welfare, food stamps, etc.) are not counted as government spending (G) when calculating Core. They are treated as income transfers to households (or sometimes to other entities). When recipients spend that money, it shows up as private consumption (C), which is included in Core GDP.

Another example is that government grants, contracts, or funding that flow to NGOs, nonprofits, universities, or private firms can support employment and activity in the private sector. The resulting wages and subsequent spending also feed into consumption (C).

GDP Growth (YoY) to Deficit spending continues to be over $1 : $1 ever since COVID (it really started with the GFC, but it dropped below the break-even point between 2013 and COVID), meaning it takes more than $1 in deficit spending to get $1 in GDP growth.