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re: China threatens to attack Taiwan if US Navy ships visit.
Posted on 12/14/17 at 9:17 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
Posted on 12/14/17 at 9:17 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:highly, highly unlikely. they are our dealer and we are their junkie. no way they would cut off their biggest source of income. economic suicide.
I believe the United States and China are on a collision course for war.
0
Posted on 12/14/17 at 9:18 pm to Lsuchs
quote:not with their navy that's for sure. go look up the state of their aircraft carriers. it's a joke.
if they start sinking carriers
Posted on 12/14/17 at 9:28 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:this is a pretty big exaggeration. again, go look at their navy.
Militarily, things are far more even now
quote:chinese millenials couldn't care less about this crap. i meet these kids weekly. they are consumerists just like americans. they want whatever keeps the gravy train rolling and war interrupts that. they have only a passing, forced interest in nationalism. they are suspicious of their govt and wise to the junk that goes on.
The Chinese also have a chip on their shoulder from the 20th century.
Posted on 12/14/17 at 9:29 pm to bfniii
quote:Ypu don’t need an aircraft carrier to sink an aircraft carrier.
not with their navy that's for sure. go look up the state of their aircraft carriers. it's a joke
And if you think their Navy is a “joke” then you clearly haven’t a clue what you’re talking about.
This post was edited on 12/14/17 at 9:32 pm
Posted on 12/14/17 at 9:31 pm to bfniii
quote:Its not an exaggeration at all. Are they equal to the US Navy right now? No. But they are much closer than they were 20 years ago and they are certainly much closer than anyone else in the world.
this is a pretty big exaggeration. again, go look at their navy.
Posted on 12/14/17 at 9:33 pm to bfniii
quote:
not with their navy that's for sure. go look up the state of their aircraft carriers. it's a joke.
The problem is being within range of their entire Air Force, and likely land based anti ship missiles (they have some nasty ones). BMD destroyers would help, but 2 of the handful we have out there just so happen to be the recent victims of merchant ships...
We’d own the open seas (reason they are building fortified islands), and once we got all our assets over to theater we could get closer. Our current peacetime pacific fleet, no matter how powerful, can’t contend with the Chinese mainland while sitting off their coast trying to shield Taiwan
It could own most other nations though
This post was edited on 12/14/17 at 10:56 pm
Posted on 12/14/17 at 10:39 pm to bfniii
We lost a carrier in a red flag exercise back in what, 2002?
The red team used the muezzin to signal a mass attack by, if I remember correctly, fishing boats.
It pays take to take these threats seriously.
What the Chinese have done is create a series of weapons, both cheap and high end, that are mutually supporting, and that neutralize many of our advantages.
They’re also operating form their home ports, in their back yard.
We’re fighting thousands of miles away from home.
The Chinese would take Tawain.
The red team used the muezzin to signal a mass attack by, if I remember correctly, fishing boats.
It pays take to take these threats seriously.
What the Chinese have done is create a series of weapons, both cheap and high end, that are mutually supporting, and that neutralize many of our advantages.
They’re also operating form their home ports, in their back yard.
We’re fighting thousands of miles away from home.
The Chinese would take Tawain.
This post was edited on 12/14/17 at 10:42 pm
Posted on 12/14/17 at 10:46 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Its not an exaggeration at all. Are they equal to the US Navy right now? No. But they are much closer than they were 20 years ago and they are certainly much closer than anyone else in the world.
They’ll catch up with us eventually. I do think their lack of combat experience is a problem. We learned a lot of painful lessons at sea which have become institutional knowledge.
I think we’d really trump them at damage control for example.
But they are getting better. And their indigenous carrier won’t have a ski jump. It will be a real carrier.
And they have so many platforms. So many ships.
It will take them time to learn how to operate together, but lord. They're pouring money into it.
Posted on 12/14/17 at 10:49 pm to bfniii
quote:
chinese millenials couldn't care less about this crap.
I won’t assume to know you, or the people your talking to.
I will say it’s very easy to assume that the Chinese who travel abroad, and who go to American universities speak for their country.
Posted on 12/14/17 at 11:01 pm to Plx1776
quote:That would be as likely as you defeating the entire army of Genghis Khan
Then the world watches as Taiwan kicks China's arse.
Posted on 12/15/17 at 8:36 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:an aircraft carrier isn't just a sitting duck. they have defenses. you can't just snap your fingers and sink one. it's exceedingly difficult and china, all things considered would be hard pressed to sink even one.
Ypu don’t need an aircraft carrier to sink an aircraft carrier
quote:we'll agree to disagree. on the world scale, no they're not a joke. compared to the us military, yes, they're a joke. sure, they have a FEW components here and there that are impressive. but they don't have the overall coverage/robustness that the us military does and it's not close.
And if you think their Navy is a “joke” then you clearly haven’t a clue what you’re talking about.
i'm not saying that defeating them or occupying their land would be easy. i'm comparing the two on paper.
Posted on 12/15/17 at 8:40 am to Lsuchs
quote:
The problem is being within range of their entire Air Force
quote:that would change in a matter of hours if we decided to get really serious about it and china would have ALOT bearing down on them. and that's merely with conventional weapons. start bringing in various new laser tech and emp's and china would be sent back to the 1940's with the quickness. all that air support they've built up would be essentially useless.
Our current peacetime pacific fleet
Posted on 12/15/17 at 8:42 am to Bard
quote:
Google the term "zerg rush".
Posted on 12/15/17 at 8:42 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:You are spot on. Guess who is paying for it? It ain't Mexico.
And if you think their Navy is a “joke” then you clearly haven’t a clue what you’re talking about.
China's fleet will surpass U.S. fleet by 2020
Posted on 12/15/17 at 8:45 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:again, neutralize is a really strong word without context. again, with conventional weapons only, diminish perhaps. start adding in exotic stuff and that's definitely an exaggeration.
that neutralize many of our advantages.
quote:not if we decided to keep it. no way. no chance in hell. if we wanted to, we could obliterate the entire chinese mainland and there wouldn't be any chinamen left to take taiwan. they would be fighting to save their country and wouldn't even be thinking about stupid little taiwan. now, if the us fought a "conventional, political" war sure, maybe we would not bring the full weight of the us military to the situation and they could take it. but that's with us intentionally limiting our response.
The Chinese would take Tawain.
Posted on 12/15/17 at 8:46 am to bfniii
quote:
that would change in a matter of hours if we decided to get really serious about it and china would have ALOT bearing down on them. and that's merely with conventional weapons. start bringing in various new laser tech and emp's and china would be sent back to the 1940's with the quickness. all that air support they've built up would be essentially useless.
you've watched Top Gun and Red Dawn a few too many times. Posted on 12/15/17 at 8:48 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:getting to know them and their culture, it's not even an assumption. they're not buying the indoctrination that previous generations have. they're wise to the us not really being their enemy and they are aware of the corruption within their own political party which makes them skeptical of the contrived nationalism. this is why i don't see a major conflict between the two. each is too dependent on the other economically and both sides know it. posturing and maybe proxies? sure.
I will say it’s very easy to assume that the Chinese who travel abroad, and who go to American universities speak for their country.
Posted on 12/15/17 at 9:02 am to Lsuchs
Prior to the Communist Revolution, Taiwan was a province of China. When the reds took over mainland China, the government in exile fled to Taiwan and rules it to this day. Thus, they believe that they are the legitimate government of China, and the Maoist government of China believes Taiwan is merely a breakaway province that should be returned to the whole.
Posted on 12/15/17 at 9:03 am to bfniii
quote:The navy has admitted they don't have any defenses against China's "carrier killer" ballistic missile. I'm sure we're working on it but if we do have a defense against it it's unproven.
an aircraft carrier isn't just a sitting duck. they have defenses.
China also has a shitton of submarines, over half of them considered modern. Our carriers are vulnerable to these as well and the US Navy's ASW capabilities have atrophied since the end of the cold war.
The Navy simply does not have enough attack submarines (SSN), cruisers, destroyers or helicopters to adequately protect the its deployed forces from subsurface threats because its ASW capability has atrophied since the end of the Cold War
They've deployed modern fighter aircraft and anti-air/anti-ship missiles to their manmade islands in the South China Sea. They've nearly tripled their naval deployments in the last ten years. They have the largest shipbuilding industry in the world and most of their fleet is less than 15 years old. The Chinese government also recently put out a directive to their shipbuilding industry that all civilian vessels must be capable of carrying military cargo as well.
We still have the edge. We won't in 10 years.
Posted on 12/15/17 at 9:45 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Yes. That would be their preference. They want to win the peace instead of fighting a war.
China really has nothing to gain from any armed conflict with anyone. They are a natural regional power. Their economy is strong and getting stronger. IMHO, their "fetish" for North Korea and Taiwan actually hurts more than helps them.
As such, I can't foresee any scenario in which they could gain much from war.
Would China dare risk a Code Covfefe Response under such conditions? I doubt it.
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