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CBS News pollster reveals why ‘blue wave’ is unlikely
Posted on 8/19/18 at 8:49 am
Posted on 8/19/18 at 8:49 am
LINK
quote:
For 2018, the CBS News Battleground Tracker has gathered a panel of nearly 5,700 registered voters. Almost all of them live in the 50 to 60 districts that might switch from Republican to Democrat, or vice versa, in November — the only races that matter, when it comes to control of Congress.
quote:
Salvanto’s polling currently indicates that few House seats will change hands in November — and that the GOP could very well hold its majority in the House. “In this era, a district’s voting patterns from the past tend to stay that way,” Salvanto said. “Not as many partisans today are willing to cross party lines.” Of the nation’s 435 House districts, fully 85 percent will almost certainly stick with its current party affiliation come November, Salvanto projects.
15
Posted on 8/19/18 at 8:54 am to wickowick
It had nothing to do with crossing partisan lines. It has everything to do with showing up to polls to vote.
Posted on 8/19/18 at 8:55 am to wickowick
Hopefully a lot less voter fraud by the dims this time around.
Posted on 8/19/18 at 8:56 am to Magician2
quote:
“Right now I think this election looks like a toss-up,” Salvanto said. “We see a Democrat pickup in the House of Representatives in the 20-odd seat range, but Republicans could certainly hold on to the House.” The GOP holds a slim 43-seat House majority, with six vacancies.
“Even though Republicans have not fared well in special elections so far this cycle, it does look like they will be turning out for the midterms,” Salvanto said. “So far we do not see a large number of Republicans saying they will flip and vote for a Democrat.”
GOP voters in the past have been much more likely than Democrats to turn up and cast ballots in midterm elections, regardless of each party’s enthusiasm level ahead of Election Day.
So Democrats are literally betting the House on their ability to capture large numbers of voters who don’t normally vote in midterm elections. “They have to bring new voters in,” Salvanto said.
Posted on 8/19/18 at 8:56 am to wickowick
quote:
Not as many partisans today are willing to cross party lines
That is such a useless and lazy line without further clarification. It explains almost nothing but it is a readily built excuse when voters cast ballots for candidates who support Trump's policies.
Posted on 8/19/18 at 8:58 am to wickowick
I predict the Dems will gain the same number in the house as the GOP gains in the senate
Posted on 8/19/18 at 9:06 am to wickowick
Democrats will see great GOTV numbers in liberal cities - NYC, Chicago, LA, Seattle, etc - but republican/indy are spurred on by the negative coverage of Trump. It's part of the reason for the 2016 surprise.
The Blue Wave will be fantastic in areas where there's no competition. Hell, the dems might even "win the popular vote" again but I don't see them taking the House.
The Blue Wave will be fantastic in areas where there's no competition. Hell, the dems might even "win the popular vote" again but I don't see them taking the House.
Posted on 8/19/18 at 9:07 am to wickowick
Republicans have two huge advantages....Pelosi, and her notable quotables... and, it's the Economy stupid
Posted on 8/19/18 at 9:54 am to wickowick
Soooo... there are no Democrat districts in danger of flipping? Is that what that chart is showing?
Posted on 8/19/18 at 9:57 am to wickowick
Posted on 8/19/18 at 11:23 am to mays
quote:
The Blue Wave will be fantastic in areas where there's no competition.
I agree with this, the blue districts get very blue due to high turnout for the Dems. The battleground districts is what would give the dems the majority and their socialistic antics won’t play well there.
Posted on 8/19/18 at 12:22 pm to wickowick
quote:
CBS News
Fake news.
Amirite?
ETA: Boy, look at all the downvotes. So I guess CBS News isn't fake when it confirms our bias.
...Amirite now?
I mean, otherwise when do we know CBS News is fake and when it's not?
This post was edited on 8/19/18 at 3:37 pm
Posted on 8/19/18 at 12:30 pm to wickowick
It has nothing to do with the current way the liberals are behaving- like a bunch of fricked up looney bins
Posted on 8/19/18 at 12:56 pm to wickowick
Voter fraud is going to be up massively this year. Democrats will justify any action to themselves as moral because it’s fighting the evil trump. As we speak there are teams of DNC volunteers filling out thousands of absentee ballots for democrat candidates. The fraud will be like none ever seen in America and it will shatter forever our faith in our own election system.
Bookmark this.
Bookmark this.
Posted on 8/19/18 at 12:58 pm to wickowick
Trumpocrats got their mill jobs back
Posted on 8/19/18 at 1:16 pm to wickowick
We love our purple puddle, don’t we folks?
#MAGA
#MAGA
Posted on 8/19/18 at 1:27 pm to wickowick
quote:
Even though Republicans have not fared well in special elections so far this cycle
Uh-huh. Right.
Posted on 8/19/18 at 1:34 pm to mays
quote:They are getting really good at winning districts they would have won anyway. But not so much in swing districts. So where they would have in the past won a district by 55% they’ll now win it by 65%. Unfortunately, margin of win is 100% meaningless—and they are ceding large swaths of “middle American” districts to do it.
Democrats will see great GOTV numbers in liberal cities - NYC, Chicago, LA, Seattle, etc
It’s a Sure sign of extremism and hyperpartisanship.
Posted on 8/19/18 at 1:52 pm to wickowick
The entire “blue wave” narrative was nothing but dem/media complex agitprop, which has been SOP for about every ejection I can ever remember.
Posted on 8/19/18 at 2:23 pm to wickowick
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