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Message
BEA Advanced 3Q17 GDP Estimate Out...3.0%
Posted on 10/24/17 at 1:06 pm
Posted on 10/24/17 at 1:06 pm
The Atlanta Fed is predicting 2.5% growth for the third quarter. GDPNow
Just for the boards edification the following are the prints from BEA and the GDPNow BEA Advanced Estimate forecast from the Atlanta Fed (since Trump as been in office):
1Q17, BEA Advanced Estimate: 0.7%, GDPNow Prediction: 0.2%
1Q17, BEA Second Estimate: 1.2%
1Q17, BEA Third and final Estimate: 1.4%
2Q17, BEA Advanced Estimate: 2.6%, GDPNow Prediction: 2.8%
2Q17, BEA Second Estimate: 3.0%
2Q17, BEA Third and final Estimate: 3.1%
LINK
Another point: the Atlanta Fed has been making GDP predictions of the BEA Advanced GDP Estimates since 2Q11. They have had an absolute error rate of 0.62.
ETA: GDPNow out with their final prediction of 2.5%. We will see the actual 3rd quarter GDP number tomorrow.
This is important because if Trump can show that he can get close to 3% GDP growth on just executive policies alone just think of the GDP growth that can be achieved if congress would actually help instead of being a ball and chain.
ETA2:
3Q17, BEA Advanced Estimate: 3.0%, GDPNow Prediction: 2.5%
Just for the boards edification the following are the prints from BEA and the GDPNow BEA Advanced Estimate forecast from the Atlanta Fed (since Trump as been in office):
1Q17, BEA Advanced Estimate: 0.7%, GDPNow Prediction: 0.2%
1Q17, BEA Second Estimate: 1.2%
1Q17, BEA Third and final Estimate: 1.4%
2Q17, BEA Advanced Estimate: 2.6%, GDPNow Prediction: 2.8%
2Q17, BEA Second Estimate: 3.0%
2Q17, BEA Third and final Estimate: 3.1%
LINK
Another point: the Atlanta Fed has been making GDP predictions of the BEA Advanced GDP Estimates since 2Q11. They have had an absolute error rate of 0.62.
ETA: GDPNow out with their final prediction of 2.5%. We will see the actual 3rd quarter GDP number tomorrow.
This is important because if Trump can show that he can get close to 3% GDP growth on just executive policies alone just think of the GDP growth that can be achieved if congress would actually help instead of being a ball and chain.
ETA2:
3Q17, BEA Advanced Estimate: 3.0%, GDPNow Prediction: 2.5%
This post was edited on 10/27/17 at 8:20 am
4
Posted on 10/26/17 at 3:48 pm to GumboPot
Bump for edits.
Posted on 10/26/17 at 4:09 pm to GumboPot
quote:
This is important because if Trump can show that he can get close to 3% GDP growth on just executive policies
With quarters of 1.4%, 3.1%, and an assumed 2.5% so far, it seems likely that that train has already sailed. It's also starting to look likely that this year winds up no better than 2015 or even 2014
Hopefully there's good news tomorrow though and in q4
This post was edited on 10/26/17 at 4:10 pm
Posted on 10/26/17 at 4:18 pm to 90proofprofessional
It's bizarre to me that we simply as a country cannot break out of this 2% growth
Posted on 10/26/17 at 4:21 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
not me, anymore
i agreed up until maybe 2014 or early 2015, and it made me unduly harsh on obama
i'm now convinced that structurally, we will not be able to sustain much above 2% (real) for any sustained amount of time in the next several years
i agreed up until maybe 2014 or early 2015, and it made me unduly harsh on obama
i'm now convinced that structurally, we will not be able to sustain much above 2% (real) for any sustained amount of time in the next several years
Posted on 10/26/17 at 4:24 pm to 90proofprofessional
I think a fair argument can be made that the first quarter of this year is not a fair reflection of the positive economic policies from the executive branch. There's probably a 3 to 6 month lag time from policy implementation to measuring it on the GDP scale.
Posted on 10/26/17 at 4:24 pm to 90proofprofessional
But why?
This country regularly had years around or above 3% for many decades
60,70s, 80s, 90s, early 000s
This country regularly had years around or above 3% for many decades
60,70s, 80s, 90s, early 000s
Posted on 10/26/17 at 4:25 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
i'm now convinced that structurally, we will not be able to sustain much above 2% (real) for any sustained amount of time in the next several years
Because of baby boomers?
Posted on 10/26/17 at 4:25 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
i'm now convinced that structurally, we will not be able to sustain much above 2% (real) for any sustained amount of time in the nex
Why do you think that?
Posted on 10/26/17 at 4:31 pm to GumboPot
quote:
I think a fair argument can be made that the first quarter of this year is not a fair reflection of the positive economic policies from the executive branch. There's probably a 3 to 6 month lag time from policy implementation to measuring it on the GDP scale.
i think it's risible to expect any discernible change in GDP growth from "positive economic policies from the executive branch" made in a few months, at any time horizon
but if you want to attribute some permanent change in growth to such a thing, you'd need multiple years and some pretty convincing controls minimum
Posted on 10/26/17 at 4:32 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
But why?
This country regularly had years around or above 3% for many decades
we also had 1) steady productivity growth (which has slowed) coupled with not having a 2) long-term decline in the ratio of the population that is in its productive/working years
those are weighing us down now
This post was edited on 10/26/17 at 4:34 pm
Posted on 10/26/17 at 4:46 pm to GumboPot
quote:
I think a fair argument can be made that the first quarter of this year is not a fair reflection of the positive economic policies from the executive branch. There's probably a 3 to 6 month lag time from policy implementation to measuring it on the GDP scale.
There's a possibility that 2017 growth will be lower than 2016 though. So far, we've added fewer jobs than 2016 at the same moment in time.
That said, it's not really fair to compare years directly in that manner because there is a natural ebb and flow to the economy. There are expansionary and contractionary forces that transcend anything the executive or lesiglative branch can do.
This post was edited on 10/26/17 at 4:47 pm
Posted on 10/26/17 at 5:35 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
But why?
This country regularly had years around or above 3% for many decades
60,70s, 80s, 90s, early 000s
Do you here that sucking sound? It is the sound of GDP being thrown away on higher education, higher taxes, higher regulatory burdens, and higher healthcare costs with zero increases in value.
Posted on 10/27/17 at 7:58 am to GumboPot
Bump for 2nd edit in OP.
Posted on 10/27/17 at 8:24 am to GumboPot
you should keep bumping op to append with the revisions
Posted on 10/27/17 at 8:27 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
you should keep bumping op to append with the revisions
I hope to. And keep it as objective as possible.
Posted on 10/27/17 at 12:25 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:gotta take the chains off American businesses. We are at an international disadvantage to pretty much everyone due to our huge business taxes and extreme regulatory environment. Intel world rather build a multi-million dollar silicon Fab in friggin Ireland, one of the most expensive places on the planet, than in Oregon because the us red tape takes literally billions of dollars to navigate. The fact that we are still reasonably robust despite all this tells me if we take the brakes off we will see serious growth.
i'm now convinced that structurally, we will not be able to sustain much above 2% (real) for any sustained amount of time in the next several years
This post was edited on 10/27/17 at 12:26 pm
Posted on 10/27/17 at 12:38 pm to GumboPot
TRUMP
Posted on 10/27/17 at 1:52 pm to narddogg81
a dubious anecdote coupled with some rhetoric about extreme chains, red tape, and brakes isn't very convincing, but you do you
Posted on 10/27/17 at 2:29 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:youre right, having the world's most onerous regulatory environment couplrd with the worlds highest corporate tax rate, plus high labor costs, high healthcare costs (due in large part to given regulations) is a recipe for successful competition on the world stage against countries that subsidize industry to undercut us. Raise those corporate taxes instead, not like millions of us jobs are impacted or anything
a dubious anecdote coupled with some rhetoric about extreme chains, red tape, and brakes isn't very convincing, but you do you
This post was edited on 10/27/17 at 2:31 pm
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