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re: Are we about to hit stagflation?

Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:16 am to
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
179766 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:16 am to
quote:


Where is this coming from?

PCE doesn't get released until tomorrow.


A lot of places reporting it

LINK

LINK

I also see Citi still predicting it to hit at 2.7% tomorrow
This post was edited on 4/25/24 at 11:20 am
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
467695 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:16 am to
quote:

I guess you and I are different because if I am $1 mil in debt I cut back everywhere including $10 lunches if they aren't necessary

If you have 3-5 costs running $10k/mo, and the rest of your costs are like $500/mo, the interest on the debt is going to overtake any small cuts you make.

Only cutting into those 3-5 big costs are going to stop anything.

Oh yeah, and if we're really comparing it to us, our revenue/income has to be capped, b/c the US will only get about 20% of our GDP in taxes every year.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
467695 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:17 am to
quote:

but he wouldn’t have fricked oil and gas like Biden has,

Would only have a minimally positive impact

quote:

which has been one of the biggest drivers of inflation.

No
Posted by TigerB8
End Communism
Member since Oct 2003
10865 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:17 am to
I thought it was rather odd to get notices my savings account went from 4.35 to 4.30 to 4.25 APY all in 1 month.
Posted by weptiger
Georgia
Member since Feb 2007
11637 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:19 am to
quote:

Again, still have no idea why the DEMS sold out so badly in 2020 to eat this shite sandwich, especially since the recovery likely will occur sometime between 2024 and 2028

Perhaps it is because they do not see their party losing another national election. Why would they care about inflation or stagflation, especially if they never see themselves being out of real power again.
This post was edited on 4/25/24 at 11:20 am
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
179766 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:19 am to
quote:

Only cutting into those 3-5 big costs are going to stop anything



It's more than 3 or 5.

Ukraine is the tip of the wasteful iceberg from this admin. Illegals, Infrastructure BS bill, etc

Ukraine only gets brought up because it's the most obvious of what this admin has printed money for

Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
467695 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:20 am to
quote:

Perhaps it is because they do not see their party losing another national election.

But having to own this economy is the driving force in them potentially losing in 2024.

The DEMs would be essentially guaranteed to take everything in 2024 in a landslide, had they let Trump own this post-Covid inflationary era.
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
66986 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:20 am to
Everything feels off about markets/economy. I work with some large pension funds and they are all really happy about returns (other than commercial real estate). So, you have this dynamic where markets and large investors are doing well, but individuals don't seem that happy. I have no idea if housing is going to be OK or crash. The gold/bitcoin surge seems to tell us something.

Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
467695 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:23 am to
quote:

It's more than 3 or 5.

Social Security
Medicare
Medicaid
Military

The "3-5" is just how you divide those up (like "Health, to include Medicare, Medicaid, and ACA stuff....or separating SS and disability, etc.)

Without significant cuts somewhere in those programs, it's literally irrelevant. There isn't enough spending to cut to make a difference at this point.

quote:

Ukraine only gets brought up because it's the most obvious of what this admin has printed money for

And if you add all of that spending up, the amount of money (not old arms we sent) spent in Ukraine isn't even a month of SS. 1 month. of 1 of these programs.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
94157 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:35 am to
Then magically inital jobless claims drop after 6 weeks of the exact number which is impossible
Posted by Rip Torner
Member since Jul 2023
1253 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:38 am to
Liberal Republicans are as bad as liberal Democrats
Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
62213 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:39 am to
quote:

Again, still have no idea why the DEMS sold out so badly in 2020 to eat this shite sandwich, especially since the recovery likely will occur sometime between 2024 and 2028


Posted by TROLA
BATON ROUGE
Member since Apr 2004
14439 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:39 am to
quote:

t just doesn't make a difference. Truly does not. It's like being $1M in debt and worrying about a $10 lunch


It’s not the amount, it’s the concept.. how can we expect any curtailment if they won’t do the easy stuff?
Posted by Houag80
Member since Jul 2019
18161 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:40 am to
You have to remember, ALL democrats have the brains of AOC and the economic literacy of Paul Krugman...essentially insane.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
467695 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:42 am to
quote:

. So, you have this dynamic where markets and large investors are doing well, but individuals don't seem that happy.


The institutional investors are still somewhat propped up by a belief in being bailed out and are being way too aggressive given the market, because they feel they have to.

Like the investment companies buying up all the homes and what not. People are seeing this as some unfair economic terrorism, but these companies are buying overpriced assets where a small decrease in value can completely frick their whole operation. There isn't enough Section 8 in 2024 to save them today.

These people learned nothing after 2008-2009. They still think everything can only go up, ignoring that our government printed trillions over a decade to artificially inflate goods to create this "value".
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
467695 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:43 am to
quote:

how can we expect any curtailment if they won’t do the easy stuff?

There is no "easy stuff" at this point

Unless pols are ready to take on the "hard stuff" (like Social Security and the Military), it doesn't matter. That's the point.
Posted by Rip Torner
Member since Jul 2023
1253 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:45 am to
Your knowledge on all things economic is laughable
Posted by 4cubbies
Member since Sep 2008
59330 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:46 am to
What’s he wrong about? I’m not saying he isn’t wrong, btw.
Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
63025 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:50 am to
quote:

Everything feels off about markets/economy. I work with some large pension funds and they are all really happy about returns (other than commercial real estate). So, you have this dynamic where markets and large investors are doing well, but individuals don't seem that happy. I have no idea if housing is going to be OK or crash. The gold/bitcoin surge seems to tell us something.


I remember when everyone was doing well, and the MSM was telling us Trump's economy was just helping Wall Street.

Now Biden's economy is literally just helping Wall Street, and the MSM doesn't talk about it at all.
Posted by Rip Torner
Member since Jul 2023
1253 posts
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:52 am to
All spending in inconsequential and irrelevant to SFP which is nonsensical, much like Roger, Biden bears little responsibility which is also nonsensical but other than that he is a genius
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