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Posted on 10/12/17 at 5:41 pm to GumboPot
quote:
How does it work on the federal fiscal level? It increases tax revenues and allows the U.S. government to service its current debt and maintain it's credit rating. Remember when S&P downgraded U.S. Treasuries for the first time ever in 2011? That's not good. That leads to more expensive debt.
Even if capital gains taxes are realized, it wouldn't impact the debt. It might narrow the deficit, but the debt will still grow.
Furthermore, a bull run in the stock market will likely lead to HIGHER interest rates, not lower, thus raising the cost of debt.
The raging stock market does NOTHING to reduce the national debt. It might put a very very very small dent into the deficit next year, thus slowing the rate of growth of teh debt. But the debt will continue to grow.
Posted on 10/12/17 at 5:48 pm to buckeye_vol
Capital gains make up between 5-10% of all US tax revenue yearly on average. The higher the gain, the higher the percentage. I wouldn't consider that to be a small percentage.
Posted on 10/12/17 at 5:53 pm to Ingloriousbastard
quote:
Capital gains make up between 5-10% of all US tax revenue yearly on average. The higher the gain, the higher the percentage. I wouldn't consider that to be a small percentage.
Naw, it is about 10% of income tax revenues.LINK
So even if it were to double, it would only be about $200B more. It wouldn't even to cut the deficit in half, and it would be the largest year on record for capital gains receipts.
This post was edited on 10/12/17 at 6:43 pm
Posted on 10/12/17 at 5:53 pm to Homesick Tiger
quote:If the shoe fits....
Somehow propping up Wall Street furthers his anti-establishment charade.
If that's not a dig against Trump and his anti-establishment mantra I don't know what is.
Posted on 10/12/17 at 5:58 pm to bobby_3_sticks
The US government took in roughly $3.3 trillion in tax revenue for 2016.
EDIT: your link states that it is roughly 5% of total revenue (on good years average of 4.2), so half would be $115 billion. Either way, still a lot of money.
EDIT: your link states that it is roughly 5% of total revenue (on good years average of 4.2), so half would be $115 billion. Either way, still a lot of money.
This post was edited on 10/12/17 at 6:05 pm
Posted on 10/12/17 at 6:00 pm to Ingloriousbastard
quote:
The US government took in roughly $3.3 trillion in tax revenue for 2016. 10% of that is $330 billion.
Income taxes, of which capital gains is about 10%, is only about half of that. So it would actually be only $165B. I provided a link fwiw. And that is average over the last 10 years, obviously some years are better (high is 11.8) and some are worse (low was 3%).
The deficit sits around $600B.
This post was edited on 10/12/17 at 6:43 pm
Posted on 10/12/17 at 6:04 pm to bobby_3_sticks
Your link says it is on average 4.2% of total revenue. If we are talking about good years, which we are at the moment, it says 5.9% of total revenue. Total revenue last year was $3.3 trillion.
Posted on 10/12/17 at 6:07 pm to Ingloriousbastard
quote:
Your link says it is on average 4.2% of total revenue. If we are talking about good years, which we are at the moment, it says 5.9% of total revenue. Total revenue last year was $3.3 trillion.
4.2% of 3.3T is $141B. 5.9% is $194B.
So it will be $54B above an average year. It won't do shite to the deficit.
This post was edited on 10/12/17 at 6:42 pm
Posted on 10/12/17 at 6:33 pm to bobby_3_sticks
Do me a favor real quick and put 4.2% of 3.3 trillion into a calculator, count the number of digits, and get back to me. I'll help you out with a hint: you can fit 1 billion one thousand times into 1 trillion, therefore 10% of 1 trillion is 100 billion.
Posted on 10/12/17 at 6:42 pm to Ingloriousbastard
you are correct. Its billion, but the deficit is still almost 600B. I was multi tasking and put millions instead of billions for the revenue and defict.
It isn't going to do shite to the debt, or really even the deficit.
It isn't going to do shite to the debt, or really even the deficit.
This post was edited on 10/12/17 at 6:44 pm
Posted on 10/12/17 at 6:45 pm to bobby_3_sticks
5.9% of 3.3 trillion is $194.7 billion. So if the deficit is almost $600 billion, this gain alone would be roughly a third..
Not so insignificant.
Not so insignificant.
Posted on 10/12/17 at 6:48 pm to Ingloriousbastard
quote:It is a lot of money, but it brings in a lot of money when the market has had losses and when it's had gains. I don't think the president has as much if an impact on the market as people argue, but without a valid and reliable way to measure that, especially in real time, I think we should use the long-term average, the expected value, as a baseline. It would be even better to use the time series data to establish the baseline given the trend ans cycles, but for arguments sake the average works for now.
EDIT: your link states that it is roughly 5% of total revenue (on good years average of 4.2), so half would be $115 billion. Either way, still a lot of money.
So if that expected value would result in 100 billion in revenue for year X, and 150 billion was brought in, then the claim can be made for the 50 billion increase, not the all 150 billion.
It would be disingenuous to argue the impact on growth, but then turn around and use the baseline plus growth.
Posted on 10/12/17 at 6:49 pm to Ingloriousbastard
quote:
5.9% of 3.3 trillion is $194.7 billion. So if the deficit is almost $600 billion, this gain alone would be roughly a third..
Not so insignificant.
Errr, we would only get 5.9% in a good year, i.e this year. Its gain would be against an "average" year, i.e. the 140B year.
So it would be ~50B gain. 10% of the deficit. I am happy if the defict goes down 10%, but that won't impact the national debt.
This post was edited on 10/12/17 at 6:51 pm
Posted on 10/12/17 at 6:54 pm to Ingloriousbastard
quote:This is what I'm referring to above, with a long term average of 4.2%, then we would expect 138.6 billion on average. So 194.7 billion is 56.1 billion above the expectation, which is the most reasonable figure to claim from our quick analysis.
5.9% of 3.3 trillion is $194.7 billion. So if the deficit is almost $600 billion, this gain alone would be roughly a third..
Not so insignificant.
It's still significant and about 9.4% of the deficit.
Posted on 10/12/17 at 6:56 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
It's still significant and about 9.4% of the deficit.
it is not significant for reducing the debt though. It would need to be over 100% to reduce the debt.
Its good. we need it.
Oh, and apparently the deficit predictions are already taking in the stock market surge for next year.
Posted on 10/12/17 at 7:00 pm to bobby_3_sticks
You are correct, but the increase is still 10% of the annual deficit, which the total debt is a sum of. I wouldn't call that insignificant.
With that being said, he's only a portion of the reason that it's gone up (mainly due to less regulations and the hope of lower taxes). It will go down again, so I don't think he should get too caught up on bragging about it.
With that being said, he's only a portion of the reason that it's gone up (mainly due to less regulations and the hope of lower taxes). It will go down again, so I don't think he should get too caught up on bragging about it.
Posted on 10/12/17 at 7:07 pm to buckeye_vol
That's right, roughly 50B. I was trying to make a point to Bobby Sticks that it wasn't as insignificant as he was originally making it seem.
Posted on 10/12/17 at 7:13 pm to Ingloriousbastard
no it is definitely insignficant. Our national debt is what 20T?
This is like giving up ONE latte to balance a personal budget.
This is like giving up ONE latte to balance a personal budget.
Posted on 10/12/17 at 7:20 pm to Ingloriousbastard
quote:I literally said it was significant, although in terms of the deficit. But the debt is not the sum of the deficit, it's also a result of a bunch of monetary borrowing and lending thst I'm not too well versed on. But one contributor that isn't so complicated is the interest on our debt. And that's a lot:
You are correct, but the increase is still 10% of the annual deficit, which the total debt is a sum of. I wouldn't call that insignificant.
How Interest on the National Debt Affects You
quote:And that's expected to increase to $333 billion this fiscal year.
The current interest on the debt is $266 billion. That's from the federal budget for fiscal year 2017 (October 1, 2016, through September 30, 2017).
Do even breaking even regarding the deficit, and interest alone will mean our debt will increase by hundreds of billions.
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