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Message
re: Analysis of Polls vs. Actual Results
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:06 am to Magician2
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:06 am to Magician2
quote:
I think you have it backwards I think the Dems come out more for Biden. Hillary was that disliked
I don't really know if there is anyway to accurately quantify it, but I disagree. HRC was absolutely disliked by a lot of people...but she did have quite a bit of people that did LIKE her because of her time as First Lady and her association with Bill. At lot of Dems/women saw her as the first, First Lady to actually get involved in real policy issues vs. just smiling in the background of her husband. Couple that with many women seeing her run as a chance to "break the glass ceiling", and she did have some degree of a strong base.
I just don't see any enthusiasm behind Biden whatsoever. He's too "establishment/corporate" for the Bernie loser/socialist wing. He's just an old white guy for the women. And frankly, I think the "salt of the earth" midwest blue collar folks who would ordinarily be the ones to really support Joe are already behind Trump at this point.
1
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:07 am to ksayetiger
quote:
according to polls, the errors that were made in 2016 have been corrected
Nothing has changed in 20 years. They all use the same flawed mathematical modeling.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:08 am to Alt26
quote:
I just don't see any enthusiasm behind Biden whatsoever. He's too "establishment/corporate" for the Bernie loser/socialist wing.
I don't see young voters turning out for Joe as much as they did for Hillary. At least for Hillary they could say that they were voting for the first woman president. With Joe he is just another old white man. They may say they are voting for Joe, they may tell pollsters that, but will they actually follow through? You still have to register to vote, you still have to go vote and fill out a ballot, and take time to do that. A lot of young people are lazy.
This is a main reason why mail in voting is pushed, to remove as much excuses as possible for young people.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:25 am to Magician2
quote:This is CLEARLY backwards. There was enthusiasm for Clinton.
I think you have it backwards I think the Dems come out more for Biden. Hillary was that disliked
Hardly a trace of it for the dementia-addled Alzheimer's marxist-puppet boy
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:40 am to anc
An old white man with dementia that has been deep inside D.istrict of C.orruption for a half century wins the Presidency. Take that in for a second ………...
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:44 am to anc
I think Dems will come out even more for Biden than Hillary. There were a lot of Bernie diehards who refused to vote for Hillary. They are all united this go round.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:45 am to grantbw
Yea, but Biden comes from the same swamp as Hillary, not to mention he is gone mentally.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:48 am to xxTIMMYxx
Agree. But Bernie voters felt cheated last time (rightfully so) and refused to turn out for Hillary. There was a lot of anti-Hillary within the Dems. There’s no anti-Biden. May not be enthusiastic, but also no hate.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:51 am to SlickRick55
The skewed poll numbers are to discourage Trump voters and encourage Biden voters. However I think these numbers are skewed for another reason.
In the event that Trump wins, the polls will be used as data points showing that Trump was behind in every poll by greater than the margin of error. Therefore Trump cheated, Russia helped, etc etc.
This will be used to rally the crazies and get them in the streets and to justify the weeks of counting ballots and lawsuits in democrat sanctuaries.
In the event that Trump wins, the polls will be used as data points showing that Trump was behind in every poll by greater than the margin of error. Therefore Trump cheated, Russia helped, etc etc.
This will be used to rally the crazies and get them in the streets and to justify the weeks of counting ballots and lawsuits in democrat sanctuaries.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 12:19 pm to RICHIE APRILE
quote:
I don't see them being caught flat footed this time.
Toss up here IMO.
Trump has made serious head way when it comes to Michigan voters.
I do not see an exemplary turn out for a generic old man (Biden). Especially one who has been racist as the day is long.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 12:22 pm to anc
Great. Now re-do the numbers with the following:
45% gay males saying they will vote MAGA
AND
22-24% of the Black vote.
Thanks
45% gay males saying they will vote MAGA
AND
22-24% of the Black vote.
Thanks
Posted on 9/21/20 at 12:38 pm to Covingtontiger77
quote:
22-24% of the Black vote.
49 states if its that high.
Hawaii is unwinnable.
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