An important Twitter thread for the anti-war in the ME folks

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Breaking: Official Iraqi TV is confirming the killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guards al-Quds brigade commander Qasim Soleimani (in what appears to be a US) strike on Baghdad airport

If confirmed, Iranian Revolutinary Guard commander Qasim Soleimani’s killing either aborts decades of Iranian malfeasance across the Middle East in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon & Palestinian Territories & paves the way to peace with Israel, or we just took a step towards war.

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@MaajidNawaz
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2h
Again, if confirmed, this is a major blow to Iran & her ability to run wars by proxy in Gaza via Islamic Jihad (and Hamas) and in Syria, Iraq & Lebanon via & Hezbollah, in Yemen via Houthis & her efforts in Afghanistan & elsewhere.

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@MaajidNawaz
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2h
Iran was utilising a Putin-style foreign policy of ‘managed provocation’ in striking at US & global interests with aim of goading overreactions that reengage US troops in conflicts (eg: oil attacks at Hormuz and Aramco). This strategy relied on US public opinion being against war

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@MaajidNawaz
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2h
By relying on proxy militia that Qasim Soleimani reportedly established, financed, controlled & directed, Iran was able to push for her interests in unaccountable ways via means beyond diplomacy that usually only a state could run, but with plausible deniability due to proxies

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@MaajidNawaz
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2h
This regional proxy war allowed Iran to have a leverage when negotiating foreign affairs with Israel, US & Saudi Arabia, and has led to rise of probably the most internationally organised terrorist criminal militia in the form of Hezbollah.

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@MaajidNawaz
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2h
Being by proxy, US was constrained in how it could react against provocative Iranian escalations. International law sets a high bar for war by proxy. But US may finally have called Iran’s bluff: Iran will have to choose now to either declare war,or reduce her managed provocations

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@MaajidNawaz
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2h
These strikes have set the stage for such a choice, indicating that the post-Iraq war era of American restraint in the Middle East is over. The gauntlet has been laid at Iran’s feet: “stop hiding behind proxies: surrender or fight out in the open”. It’s a very bold gambit.

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@MaajidNawaz
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2h
Iran cannot hope to beat US militarily, she can only sow chaos. But her ability to do that (traditionally via Soleimani) may just have been taken out. Leaving her exposed in all client countries. US would likely follow up with further attacks still, to drive home the message

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@MaajidNawaz
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2h
These strikes, plus 4000 US troop surge to Iraq this week after attack on US embassy in Baghdad (by Iranian proxies) sends a loud message to Iran but also Russia (and China) that US retreat from Middle East & hesitance to engage in conflicts, is over. A new era has been defined

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@MaajidNawaz
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2h
Again, if confirmed, then the gauntlet has been thrown at Iran’s feet by America. “Come to war with us, or back off once and for all”.

No one knows how Iran would reply.

But this is big.

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@MaajidNawaz
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1h
Important to recal according to US domestic law, Iranian Revolutionary Guard is designated a terrorist organisation. Therefore,US government will rely on counter-terror foreign policy & law defence for allegedly killing Soleimani. The writing was already on the wall months ago

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