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All these supposed pollsters are saying it is all over for Trump
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:48 pm
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:48 pm
8
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:49 pm to WPBTiger
Deja Vu
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:49 pm to WPBTiger
No mathematical possibilty for trump.
I 'member
I 'member
This post was edited on 7/13/20 at 5:51 pm
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:50 pm to WPBTiger
Guess I should just stay home then 
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:50 pm to WPBTiger
quote:Recency bias and the tendency to project the recent past indefinitely into the future is a dangerous cognitive bias. On top of the fact that the polls were pretty accurate in 2016, don't kid yourself into thinking this isn't actually a dogfight.
All these supposed pollsters are saying it is all over for Trump
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:51 pm to WPBTiger
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:51 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
fact that the polls were pretty accurate in 2016
Have you been sitting on a pile of top secret polls all this time?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:54 pm to WPBTiger
I can’t find it, but I remember the Rachel Maddow video where she goes to every “tossup “state and concludes that "even if Trump wins every tossup State, something that NEVER happens, even if he wins that one delegate from Maine that he coves so badly, we'll throw that in, and Donald Trump wins every other tossup State, he still loses. “
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:55 pm to TigerOnTheMountain
It's July.
Ford closed like 25 points on Carter after Labor Day and almost won.
George HW Bush was down 15 to Dukakis in 88 after the Dem convention. He went on to win.
This was in an era of real polls.
Hell, Trump was down double digits a week into October after the Access tapes came out. How did that turn out?
Anyone saying this is over in July has an agenda.
Ford closed like 25 points on Carter after Labor Day and almost won.
George HW Bush was down 15 to Dukakis in 88 after the Dem convention. He went on to win.
This was in an era of real polls.
Hell, Trump was down double digits a week into October after the Access tapes came out. How did that turn out?
Anyone saying this is over in July has an agenda.
This post was edited on 7/13/20 at 5:57 pm
Posted on 7/13/20 at 6:01 pm to TigerOnTheMountain
quote:No. Just read the math. 2016 polls were actually little more accurate than over time.
Have you been sitting on a pile of top secret polls all this time?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 6:02 pm to WPBTiger
"It was a white lash I'm telling you".
Posted on 7/13/20 at 6:04 pm to WPBTiger
Trump won by less than 80k votes in three states.
His job approval in those states is TERRIBLE.
Yes, he pulled a huge upset once. One outlier does not predict another.
His job approval in those states is TERRIBLE.
Yes, he pulled a huge upset once. One outlier does not predict another.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 6:07 pm to RuLSU
Go play in the street
Posted on 7/13/20 at 6:08 pm to pbro62
95% chance Clinton wins
Posted on 7/13/20 at 6:09 pm to wickowick
I love seeing MadCow be wrong. Her 2016 election night meltdown was so special.
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