re: AI and the job market 5 years from now

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That transition took all of about three years. Wonder where we'll be in another three years?

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Let’s say you are correct:

If so:
-Lawyer’s are screwed big time.
-General practitioners and mid-level providers are screwed big time from the diagnostic perspective.
-testers are out of a job
-HR is out
-accountants are definitely screwed
-financial advisors are completely obsolete
-insurance underwriters
-on and on

Basically ANY decision making job or job built on arguments, writing, or analysis is gone.

Then once the robotics catches up: welders are gone in an instant, plant operators will be cut in half, at least, all mid-level providers and general practitioners will be gone, surgeons would be on the chopping block (pun intended), on and on.

It’s not just coders.

Exactly

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How exactly do we reconcile the fact that weve been pushing people into tech and STEM for decades now and AI can now basically complete, id guess, 50% of the production of these tech jobs with little to no human oversight?

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As I've said before, I don't think 10% of STEM people can actually code.
I don't think 50% of software people can actually code.
I don't think 80% of software people can code at a high level.
I don't think 95% of STEM people can actually do higher level math.

Here is what has happened for the last 30 years.
People spend time in college, they pass their classes, get a general concept of the skills.
They then get a job, and when they find out they are not great in it, they move to a managerial type role, maybe the work on test, or processes, or gathering metrics, or sales, or the money end, maybe they gather the requirements and decide what the code should do.

But they aren't writing good software all day.
And if they are they eventually get promoted out of it.

So the jobs many of these people do was never needed in the first place.

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What does coder do when AI has made his job obsolete?

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Well if he's a l33t coder he's going to complete vastly more than he did before.
If he's a decent coder, he will be a great coder.
If he's crap, he better find another skillset.

Not disagreeing that there wont be change, but AI is crazy expensive, a good developer could save you millions in electricity and time on AI code generation by leading the AI to faster and better solutions, and managing the complexity end of it.

AI thread saying all the white collar workers are doomed - that's a first on this board.

You going to sign up for AI brain surgery for your mom or fly in a fully AI piloted plane?

Does it help? Of course it does. But look at when Microsoft tried to use copilot to do bug fixes on its own; utter crap and the devs had to ask over and over to change it until they just gave up.

Not seeing the exponential growth that had been mentioned in this thread. Hallucinations have not gotten better in recent months. If anything, I'm looking forward to opportunities to clean up the enshittification that over use of it is creating.

Are any of the AI companies actually making money yet?

Bingo. Also, AI requires people to know how to use it. Basically AI is nothing but a very smart assistant.

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My Company is on the cutting edge of this stuff and the tools are just somewhat OK...maybe 20 years from now it might be a different conversation but now AI is pretty meh....

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With the scale of investments and compute power that will be available in 5 years things could move a lot faster. But if you're in the industry I'll assume you know more than me. I've only worked on the data center construction side and the scale of some of these facilities is pretty eye opening.