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3Q Tracking thread! ATL projection down from 4.7 to 4.4 as trade deficit soars
Posted on 8/9/18 at 10:30 am
Posted on 8/9/18 at 10:30 am
Hi politards, it’s everyone’s favorite chronicler of our journey to sustained 3% growth, back with another tracking thread! I've been greatly encouraged by all the recent interest in quarterly GDP figures and in this forecast!
Here’s the GDPNow 3Q path to date:
7/31 4.7
8/01 5.0
8/02 4.9
8/03 4.4
8/09 4.3
8/15 4.3
8/16 4.3
8/24 4.6
8/30 4.1
9/04 4.7
9/05 4.4
below the line is unedited text from the initial op:
------------------------------------------------
90pp still expects 2.9-3.0 for the year, and early 3Q expectation is 3.0-3.1.
As always, this will get bumped within a few hours of new releases, based around the ATL group’s schedule. Other projections & considered input strongly encouraged as always. Earlier the better!
Here’s the GDPNow 3Q path to date:
7/31 4.7
8/01 5.0
8/02 4.9
8/03 4.4
8/09 4.3
8/15 4.3
8/16 4.3
8/24 4.6
8/30 4.1
9/04 4.7
9/05 4.4
below the line is unedited text from the initial op:
------------------------------------------------
90pp still expects 2.9-3.0 for the year, and early 3Q expectation is 3.0-3.1.
As always, this will get bumped within a few hours of new releases, based around the ATL group’s schedule. Other projections & considered input strongly encouraged as always. Earlier the better!
This post was edited on 9/5/18 at 11:00 am
9
Posted on 8/9/18 at 10:34 am to 90proofprofessional
The Atlanta Fed looks like an outlier. I wish they would explain why they think their forecast is so much different than the Blue Chip consensus.
Posted on 8/9/18 at 10:35 am to GumboPot
quote:
looks like an outlier
it usually does early in teh quarter with the first couple of outputs, give it some time
Posted on 8/15/18 at 11:04 am to 90proofprofessional
After good July retail data & 2Q productivity data, somewhat offset by weaker July industrial production data & wage data, updated projection holds at 4.3 for the ATL folks.
WSJ forecasting survey expects 3.1 for the quarter
STL Fed Nowcast projects 3.4
NY Fed Nowcast projects 2.6
Alternative projections & input from the faithful still encouraged.
WSJ forecasting survey expects 3.1 for the quarter
STL Fed Nowcast projects 3.4
NY Fed Nowcast projects 2.6
Alternative projections & input from the faithful still encouraged.
Posted on 8/24/18 at 10:27 am to 90proofprofessional
ATL bumps back up to 4.6 after residential investment &durable manufacturing releases!
STL concurs with 4.6
NY drops theirs to 2.0
Anyone wanting to throw down a number for the quarter or year yet?
STL concurs with 4.6
NY drops theirs to 2.0
Anyone wanting to throw down a number for the quarter or year yet?
Posted on 8/24/18 at 10:46 am to 90proofprofessional
are you talking to yourself? Can't you do that in your head like the rest of us? 
Posted on 8/25/18 at 1:58 pm to 90proofprofessional
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/7/18 at 2:52 pm
Posted on 8/25/18 at 3:29 pm to bigblake
quote:
NY
quote:
data
Libs (NY) do not recognize the non-emotional thing called “data.”
Posted on 8/25/18 at 3:33 pm to 90proofprofessional
Looks like my predictions have been correct, and will continue to be correct.
As you are aware 90proof, I’m the only poster to put my predictions on the record.
Covfefe!
As you are aware 90proof, I’m the only poster to put my predictions on the record.
Covfefe!
Posted on 8/25/18 at 5:03 pm to bigblake
quote:
Why does NY have a massive different from ATL?
i remember that they have significantly different modeling approaches but i'm not sure i remember what they are exactly
i think atl does a bunch of single-equation nowcasts of several gdp determinants, and then does a similar thing for overall gdp using the projected determinants, and i think ny just does a proprietary DSGE model
Posted on 8/25/18 at 5:04 pm to Iowa Golfer
Posted on 8/25/18 at 5:37 pm to Jyrdis
fantastic character and RIP Alan Rickman
Posted on 8/25/18 at 6:11 pm to 90proofprofessional
A more appropriate Alan Rickman gif for the topic.
Posted on 8/25/18 at 6:20 pm to Jyrdis
like severus & albus, we both know you don't mean that with your whole heart
Posted on 8/30/18 at 10:14 am to 90proofprofessional
updated for the 30th, something of a drop due to updated trade data and private investment data
quarter still looks likely to be good, and tbqh i'm starting to think it'll end up more like low-to-mid 3's rather than the 2.9-3.0 i said initially. net exports seem likely to be a drag, just as they were a big bump in q2. but that'll probably be mostly offset by inventories being a bump in q3, just as they were a drain in q2 (and also largely offset that soy exports bump)
but the investment & wage data still just don't look like they'll support any sustained bump (and hopefully government spending won't keep surging). agree with those that expect a still-weaker q4
quarter still looks likely to be good, and tbqh i'm starting to think it'll end up more like low-to-mid 3's rather than the 2.9-3.0 i said initially. net exports seem likely to be a drag, just as they were a big bump in q2. but that'll probably be mostly offset by inventories being a bump in q3, just as they were a drain in q2 (and also largely offset that soy exports bump)
but the investment & wage data still just don't look like they'll support any sustained bump (and hopefully government spending won't keep surging). agree with those that expect a still-weaker q4
Posted on 9/4/18 at 10:35 am to 90proofprofessional
ISM index roars up for August, and GDPNow does as well!
Posted on 9/5/18 at 11:00 am to 90proofprofessional
update from yesterday as imports increase and exports decrease for august
Posted on 9/5/18 at 12:11 pm to 90proofprofessional
LINK
“Total US trade hit a new record all-time high in July. In terms of the trade deficit, commercial aircraft played an outsized role for the month, driving three-fourths of the decline in exports. Despite the overall drop in exports in July, however, in the past year exports are up 8.2%, while imports are up 9.1% signaling very healthy gains in the overall volume of international trade and easily outstripping nominal GDP growth of 5.4% in the past year. “
“Total US trade hit a new record all-time high in July. In terms of the trade deficit, commercial aircraft played an outsized role for the month, driving three-fourths of the decline in exports. Despite the overall drop in exports in July, however, in the past year exports are up 8.2%, while imports are up 9.1% signaling very healthy gains in the overall volume of international trade and easily outstripping nominal GDP growth of 5.4% in the past year. “
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