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Posted on 10/20/20 at 12:16 pm to DeltaDoc
Trump can still win, but he's going to have to be amazing at the debate or Biden really bad Thursday night. Some 20 to 30% of the votes are in already and polling indicates only about 2% of remaining voters are undecided.
I doubt some October surprise will make a difference.
Most likely Biden will be projected the winner on election night, though much of the counting of absentee ballots will take an extra two weeks in some states. Final tallies won't be done until December.
I know how it works in New York. The Board of Elections doesn't even start counting absentee ballots until the day after the election and that's only with a part of their staff since the majority are collecting the tabulators from election sites and safely securing them for a day or two.
Every step in the process must be witnessed by both a Republican and a Democrat. That ensures fairness, but also slows things down.
We are likely to have races (not the presidential) that are counting and recounting votes at least half way through November and probably to the end of the month.
I doubt some October surprise will make a difference.
Most likely Biden will be projected the winner on election night, though much of the counting of absentee ballots will take an extra two weeks in some states. Final tallies won't be done until December.
I know how it works in New York. The Board of Elections doesn't even start counting absentee ballots until the day after the election and that's only with a part of their staff since the majority are collecting the tabulators from election sites and safely securing them for a day or two.
Every step in the process must be witnessed by both a Republican and a Democrat. That ensures fairness, but also slows things down.
We are likely to have races (not the presidential) that are counting and recounting votes at least half way through November and probably to the end of the month.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 12:25 pm to Jrv2damac
Tens of millions of fraudulent ballots are already in the system or prepared to be dumped into the system.
Corruption will be massive and to a new level of criminality. Harris/Biden will win and the Dems take both chambers of CONgress.
Get ready because nobody is going to do jack about it either.
Corruption will be massive and to a new level of criminality. Harris/Biden will win and the Dems take both chambers of CONgress.
Get ready because nobody is going to do jack about it either.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 12:30 pm to DeltaDoc
quote:
think he loses MI and MN. Not sure about WI.
He’ll take 2 of these 3. Arizona will be close.
Trump take MI, WI, FL, OH, PA fairly early in the night.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 12:36 pm to Quesadilla Superman
Biden will win.
Biden will carry every state HRC carried in 2016 PLUS Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Game over for Trump.
Biden will carry every state HRC carried in 2016 PLUS Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Game over for Trump.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 12:38 pm to GeorgeWest
This is also how I see it. Except I think Trump will actually win Michigan. The populace there cannot be happy with how the Dems have screwed that state.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 2:51 pm to hogcard1964
They are cheating like mad in Michigan. Detroit will have close to 100% voter turnout.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 2:54 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
This is going to come down to mail in ballots and their validity.
Agree
quote:
We've already seen the SCOTUS ruling on mail in ballots in PA
Didn't that only deny a STAY? It was not a ruling on the merits. Isn't the actual arguments / case ongoing?
ETA: My answer is Trump. My dad is voting Trump. That tells me things are very different
This post was edited on 10/20/20 at 2:56 pm
Posted on 10/20/20 at 2:55 pm to DeltaDoc
Trump wins the voting, Dems win the counting
Hopefully after the lawsuits are filed Amy will be the deciding vote and give it to Trump in the end
Yes, I hope Amy gives it to Trump in the end
Hopefully after the lawsuits are filed Amy will be the deciding vote and give it to Trump in the end
Yes, I hope Amy gives it to Trump in the end
Posted on 10/20/20 at 2:56 pm to Jrv2damac
quote:
Biden only wins if they cheat
I don’t think there is any doubt that they’re going to cheat....
Posted on 10/20/20 at 2:57 pm to DeltaDoc
Voter turnout will be all-time record they say.....if so, it could push Sleepy over the top, then I will cry.
GEAUX 45 to 270+
GEAUX 45 to 270+
Posted on 10/20/20 at 3:18 pm to Quesadilla Superman
quote:
He’ll take 2 of these 3. Arizona will be close.
Trump take MI, WI, FL, OH, PA fairly early in the night.
I guarantee Wisconsin and Pennsylvania won't be decided early for Trump. They might go that way, but it will not be early.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 3:27 pm to TigerFanatic99
Agree he only won by less than 80k votes
Posted on 10/20/20 at 3:39 pm to DeltaDoc
Enthusiasm has always been the most reliable predictor. I don't think that has changed nor ever will. The delta in candidate enthusiasm is infinite. If Trump doesn't win, objective individuals have to question how that happened.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 3:44 pm to DeltaDoc
I still think Biden but things do seem to be trending in Trump's favor
I don't think the debate swings many people but I do think it impacts enthusiasm and could bolster a good week for Trump.
My biggest worries are AZ and the absence of much that would indicate success in PA, WI, MN or MI. Obviously if the other question marks go south (GA, NC) we've got bigger issues and will need more help.
I don't think the debate swings many people but I do think it impacts enthusiasm and could bolster a good week for Trump.
My biggest worries are AZ and the absence of much that would indicate success in PA, WI, MN or MI. Obviously if the other question marks go south (GA, NC) we've got bigger issues and will need more help.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 3:57 pm to DeltaDoc
Biden 305-311, Trump 227-233
Biden wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina and Arizona.
Trump holds Ohio and Florida. I think Iowa too.
Democrats will control the presidency and both houses of Congress.
Biden wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina and Arizona.
Trump holds Ohio and Florida. I think Iowa too.
Democrats will control the presidency and both houses of Congress.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:00 pm to ROPO
ROPO, in another thread you asked to see the polls that showed voters want ACB confirmed
Here are three out recently
Today: NYT/sienna: Americans by a 9 point margin, 47-38, want her confirmed. Numerous swing state polls in nyt/sienna that show trump losing also show voters want her confirmed. In NC, it was 46-33 in favor
Today: Gallup has it 51-46 in favor of confirmation
Morning consult: voters by a 17 point margin want her confirmed
Here are three out recently
Today: NYT/sienna: Americans by a 9 point margin, 47-38, want her confirmed. Numerous swing state polls in nyt/sienna that show trump losing also show voters want her confirmed. In NC, it was 46-33 in favor
Today: Gallup has it 51-46 in favor of confirmation
Morning consult: voters by a 17 point margin want her confirmed
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:01 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Don’t waste your time with that clown.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:05 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
This is going to come down to mail in ballots and their validity. We've already seen the SCOTUS ruling on mail in ballots in PA and the dems know it's their golden ticket. SCOTUS will hand Biden a fraudulent victory via these so called conservative judges that are nothing more than typical DC political retreads.
if this happens this country is done.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:07 pm to DeltaDoc
I think trump wins the election outright. I think Trump wins all states he won last time and adds a few more- I think he adds Minnesota, Nevada and as a shocker I think he adds NY.
I think there are Court challenges to Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, Pennsylvania, but all are originally (even after counting mail votes and fake votes) in Trumps column, but by a very thin margin. I think bc mail in ballots were planned last minute the Democrat fake votes don’t matter bc 20 percent aren’t counted Bc the only thing you can count on is utter incompetence of post office and the government, and that Democrats are too fricking stupid to fill out a form.
In the challenged states, trump keeps his blue collar White people support and gains over 20 percent of black men. Black men are the deciding vote in this election.
Yes - NY is a long shot, but Trump is culturally NY. NYC is not going to go blue - but it’s also a ghost town, people there loathe deblasio (maybe even more than Trump), and the Orthodox Jews are furious. Plus - he’s got black male support there too: NYC completely fricked up their mail in votes the last time, and so they will lose a significant amount of them to utter incompetence. The rest of NY state is livid about the nursing home thing. IOW - Some significant portion of NYC voters are either absent, screwed up their mail ballot, their mail ballot got lost or They r voting for trump. Trump won’t win NYC, but He’ll convert enough NYC people and will win the rest of the state.
I think there are Court challenges to Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, Pennsylvania, but all are originally (even after counting mail votes and fake votes) in Trumps column, but by a very thin margin. I think bc mail in ballots were planned last minute the Democrat fake votes don’t matter bc 20 percent aren’t counted Bc the only thing you can count on is utter incompetence of post office and the government, and that Democrats are too fricking stupid to fill out a form.
In the challenged states, trump keeps his blue collar White people support and gains over 20 percent of black men. Black men are the deciding vote in this election.
Yes - NY is a long shot, but Trump is culturally NY. NYC is not going to go blue - but it’s also a ghost town, people there loathe deblasio (maybe even more than Trump), and the Orthodox Jews are furious. Plus - he’s got black male support there too: NYC completely fricked up their mail in votes the last time, and so they will lose a significant amount of them to utter incompetence. The rest of NY state is livid about the nursing home thing. IOW - Some significant portion of NYC voters are either absent, screwed up their mail ballot, their mail ballot got lost or They r voting for trump. Trump won’t win NYC, but He’ll convert enough NYC people and will win the rest of the state.
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