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re: 1yr ltr: computer modelling projections of COVID deaths were 937020%+ actual in somecases
Posted on 4/25/21 at 12:22 pm to AUstar
Posted on 4/25/21 at 12:22 pm to AUstar
quote:
I mean they weren't THAT far off in the USA. Totally unmitigated I could see 2,000,000 elderly and obese dying pretty easily.
How do you think that would have happened when basically everyone in the United States has ALREADY been exposed to COVID and either contracted it or had an asymptomatic (i.e. weren't infected) case?
0
Posted on 4/25/21 at 12:27 pm to bungalow233b
quote:
I’v been to Japan pre-pandemic, masks wearing was very common.
I have, too, as I pulled into Tokyo and Okinawa on multiple occasions from 2016-2018. Mask wearing was common in the sense that more than one person would be walking around wearing a mask. And that was generally because that person was actually sick with a respiratory illness.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 12:59 pm to bungalow233b
quote:
Suicide actually decreased for 2020, and overdoes continued to clime at a similar clip as previous years
This is utter bullshite
Posted on 4/25/21 at 1:48 pm to cokebottleag
quote:You left?
Also: i'm back motherfrickers.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 2:15 pm to bungalow233b
Pulling forward deaths from the future doesn't justify sanctioning your own country's service industry for optics sake. 15% doesn't justify the economic destruction we caused. What's the king term non-covid death rate going to look like because of 2020? Answer is much higher than 300k deaths.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 4:18 pm to cokebottleag
quote:
Also: i'm back motherfrickers.
Welcome back!
quote:
computer modelling projections of COVID deaths were 937020%+ actual
My dog could do better!
Posted on 4/25/21 at 4:19 pm to AUstar
quote:
I mean they weren't THAT far off in the USA. Totally unmitigated I could see 2,000,000 elderly and obese dying pretty easily.
Is it OK with you if your bank statement is 95% off?
Posted on 4/25/21 at 4:37 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
Pulling forward deaths from the future doesn't justify sanctioning
Pulling forward weather reports from the future doesn’t justify evacuating New Orleans because we think there is a chance a category 5 hurricane will hit the area.
“All models are wrong, but some are useful” - George Box
Posted on 4/25/21 at 4:50 pm to LSUbest
Your bank has all the information. This is a predictive model that was trying to model the R0 and health impact, while also modeling in people’s movement.
Maybe the thing would have been to wait to understand more about it, but then you risk that the R0 is something around 6 and the death rate is 5-10%. Your hesitation caused millions dead, a complete loss of trust of government. Markets crash, people die, years of recovery to get us back where we are. You’re in this position, what do you do?
Maybe the thing would have been to wait to understand more about it, but then you risk that the R0 is something around 6 and the death rate is 5-10%. Your hesitation caused millions dead, a complete loss of trust of government. Markets crash, people die, years of recovery to get us back where we are. You’re in this position, what do you do?
Posted on 4/25/21 at 4:54 pm to bungalow233b
Don't cause mass panic and hysteria 
Posted on 4/25/21 at 5:01 pm to wutangfinancial
Correct, I never said you do. Social distancing policies and masks are not hysteria. That’s an issue with the media, and peoples consumption of it.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 5:08 pm to bungalow233b
Social distancing and masks were mostly about optics and appeasing the do something crowd. They didn't have to mandate anything and the people who were scared or at risk would have stayed home regardless. They accomplished nothing but making people hate each other. I'm still not aware of a single hospital system outside of NYC that was ever at risk of being overrun.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 5:14 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
I'm still not aware of a single hospital system outside of NYC that was ever at risk of being overrun.
Uhh the origin post shows that masks and social distancing work. Those countries had some of the strictest policies. Their deaths and cases are insanely low.
Atlanta, I know someone that is a nurse in a covid unit. There you have one more.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 5:16 pm to bungalow233b
Those countries have different cultures and health habits. Lockdown policies don't work when half the country DGAF about what their government tells them.
What % capacity was the average Atlanta hospital? My guess is nowhere close to the legal requirements of 125-130%.
What % capacity was the average Atlanta hospital? My guess is nowhere close to the legal requirements of 125-130%.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 5:22 pm to bungalow233b
quote:
You’re in this position, what do you do
Sick and most at risk are isolated and quarantined.
Life goes on for the rest with recommendations for improved hygiene and social distancing.
No lockdowns and schools stay open.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 5:23 pm to bungalow233b
I can't fathom how you think asian cultures and American culture can even be compared. Taiwain, Japan and South Korea couldn't be more different than the U.S.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 6:37 pm to wutangfinancial
First: our government specifically said masks do not work. Were they lying?
Second, if masks worked we would not need a shot!
Third, if a shot worked, we would not need a mask!
Fourth, arguing that masks stopped the flu is the stupidest post in this board because it would have also stopped the same coronavirus that shut down our country!
Second, if masks worked we would not need a shot!
Third, if a shot worked, we would not need a mask!
Fourth, arguing that masks stopped the flu is the stupidest post in this board because it would have also stopped the same coronavirus that shut down our country!
Posted on 4/25/21 at 6:57 pm to dafif
I don't think he has bad intentions we agree on the underlying increase in deaths. I just understand that the financial and legal incentives on top of the change in indexing and diagnosing people with a PCR test with cycling only relevant for lab experiments can easily cause hysteria. I can make the common cold as bad as Covid with all of the same policies and incventives.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 8:28 pm to bungalow233b
I model it off of the best available data.
This wasn't our first corona virus. To act like we knew nothing about it is a willful perversion of the truth.
We had months worth of data from other countries, and we could have independently estimated an R0 with much more accuracy. If - we would not have politicized the virus in an all out effort to crush the economy and remove Trump from office.
The medical community is taking a big hit from this. Maybe it wasn't their call to exaggerate the R0 and fatalities, but they sold out, knuckled under, and kept quiet.
There is too much evidence to suggest otherwise.
I'm only a Biologist and it was astounding to me to watch Fauchi say hydroxychloroquine is untested and unproven, lets try this other untested and unproven drug instead. If this was an emergency - we had something safe in hand that had shown promise... yet we outlaw it.
Where was the medical community when the Nazi governors were moving NCCV patients into nursing homes?
Where was the medical community when Fauchi and the CDC kept flip-flopping on the effectiveness of masks? And now the vaccine?
How confident are you that the results of this model was not in any way influenced by politics?
This wasn't our first corona virus. To act like we knew nothing about it is a willful perversion of the truth.
We had months worth of data from other countries, and we could have independently estimated an R0 with much more accuracy. If - we would not have politicized the virus in an all out effort to crush the economy and remove Trump from office.
The medical community is taking a big hit from this. Maybe it wasn't their call to exaggerate the R0 and fatalities, but they sold out, knuckled under, and kept quiet.
There is too much evidence to suggest otherwise.
I'm only a Biologist and it was astounding to me to watch Fauchi say hydroxychloroquine is untested and unproven, lets try this other untested and unproven drug instead. If this was an emergency - we had something safe in hand that had shown promise... yet we outlaw it.
Where was the medical community when the Nazi governors were moving NCCV patients into nursing homes?
Where was the medical community when Fauchi and the CDC kept flip-flopping on the effectiveness of masks? And now the vaccine?
quote:
This is a predictive model that was trying to model the R0 and health impact
How confident are you that the results of this model was not in any way influenced by politics?
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