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re: 1yr ltr: computer modelling projections of COVID deaths were 937020%+ actual in somecases
Posted on 4/25/21 at 8:40 am to cokebottleag
Posted on 4/25/21 at 8:40 am to cokebottleag
Meanwhile, deaths from cancer, heart attack and motorcycle accidents dropped to virtually zero.
2
Posted on 4/25/21 at 8:44 am to cokebottleag
No shite.
I can't wait for the revisions of the US numbers in a few years (you know, to explain how influenza, stroke, pneumonia, diabetes, heart attacks, tuberculosis, etc. ceased to exist in 2020 - when the number of overall deaths wasn't appreciably higher than 2019)
I can't wait for the revisions of the US numbers in a few years (you know, to explain how influenza, stroke, pneumonia, diabetes, heart attacks, tuberculosis, etc. ceased to exist in 2020 - when the number of overall deaths wasn't appreciably higher than 2019)
This post was edited on 4/25/21 at 8:49 am
Posted on 4/25/21 at 8:44 am to HubbaBubba
quote:
What was it like? Why didn't you go to the light?
TD and politics is my vice. Without them I was rudderless. I drifted for a while, finally found myself in a convent for reformed prostitutes outside of La Paz with 3 tattooed 'ex' hookers trying to score some cash for a bus ticket to Buenas Aires. I figured I'd finally hit a low point and felt like it was time to come back.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 8:45 am to bungalow233b
quote:
Japan, Taiwan and South Korea had some of the strictest Covid policies that extended past lockdown.
I can't speak for Taiwan and South Korea, but you are 100% incorrect about Japan. Though I'm pretty sure the paper linked in the OP mentioned that Taiwan and South Korea were similar in their response to Japan.
quote:
Unlike lockdowns in other parts of the world, however, the Japanese declaration comes with almost no enforcement power, but is instead framed as a set of requests and encouragements. Neither the national nor local governments can require that people stay home, and those who choose to ignore the recommendation face no penalties. Likewise, Abe’s recommendation for schools to close had no legal force and some areas ignored them.
LINK
Posted on 4/25/21 at 8:53 am to captainFid
quote:
Meanwhile, deaths from cancer, heart attack and motorcycle accidents dropped to virtually zero.
Not true
This post was edited on 4/25/21 at 8:54 am
Posted on 4/25/21 at 9:15 am to RollTide1987
quote:
I can't speak for Taiwan and South Korea, but you are 100% incorrect about Japan. Though I'm pretty sure the paper linked in the OP mentioned that Taiwan and South Korea were similar in their response to Japan.
Tokyo is currently under their 3rd State of Emergency, because they reached their absurdly low threshold of 5,600 daily cases for a population 37million. They also in force the $2700 fine for breaking the mandates.
I’v been to Japan pre-pandemic, masks wearing was very common.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 9:18 am to captainFid
quote:
Meanwhile, deaths from cancer, heart attack and motorcycle accidents dropped to virtually zero.
They changed how they index secondary causes of death. The Cares Act changed everything pertaining to the virus. We had no shot after the incentives were written into law.
This post was edited on 4/25/21 at 9:19 am
Posted on 4/25/21 at 9:21 am to bungalow233b
So we're just back to 2005 levels of health? It's like the dark ages.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 9:30 am to cokebottleag
quote:
So we're just back to 2005 levels of health? It's like the dark ages.
Nice cherry picking, crude deaths per 1000 is back to 1947 levels. See I can cherry pick too.
The lie that other causes of deaths are 0 is completely false.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 9:33 am to bungalow233b
How many influenza deaths in 2020 vs 2019?
Posted on 4/25/21 at 9:53 am to CaTiger85
I don’t know, but if the prediction based on the large drop in Southern Hemisphere flu cases were accurate then it should be a significant drop. It’s almost like the measures to slow covid also works for other viruses.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 9:58 am to bungalow233b
quote:
bungalow233b
STAHP!!
Your own graph says that 2020 is not accurate.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 10:02 am to AUstar
quote:
I mean they weren't THAT far off in the USA. Totally unmitigated I could see 2,000,000 elderly and obese dying pretty easily.
Well the studies done on masks, lock downs and 6ft having no bearing.
Doing nothing would have seen an insignificant increase. So no, they were still way off.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 10:02 am to League Champs
quote:
STAHP!! Your own graph says that 2020 is not accurate.
Yeah, it says that the number is a lower bound, so the true number of deaths is likely higher.
quote:
As such, 2020 data should be interpreted as a lower bound
Posted on 4/25/21 at 10:19 am to bungalow233b
A lower bound of what? Inflated numbers?
Posted on 4/25/21 at 10:26 am to League Champs
Lower bound of deaths in 2020. That chart doesn’t separate Covid deaths or other types of deaths. It only looks at the deaths for the year. It being labeled a Covid has no bearing on the chart.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 10:42 am to bungalow233b
quote:
don’t know
Of course you don’t.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 10:58 am to bungalow233b
Guaranteed that marginal increase has more to do with deaths of despair and higher violent crime directly due to sanctioning small businesses versus the virus itself.
Posted on 4/25/21 at 11:30 am to cokebottleag
Your science is wrong baw
Posted on 4/25/21 at 11:46 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
Guaranteed that marginal increase has more to do with deaths of despair and higher violent crime directly due to sanctioning small businesses versus the virus itself.
You are correct that violent crime increased but 4,000 extra murders only increase the deaths per 1000 by 0.01.
Increased murders
Suicide actually decreased for 2020, and overdoes continued to clime at a similar clip as previous years.
Decreasing suicide
Edit: A 15% increase in deaths from the previous year is not “marginal”.
This post was edited on 4/25/21 at 11:49 am
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