Baton Rouge Regional Preview: LSU, Houston, Bryant, & Southeastern LA

**This full preview consists of the first 4 posts of this thread.**



It’s that time of year again: postseason baseball at The Box! Two weeks ago, it looked as though the road to Omaha for the Tigers head out on a road tour. Instead, the LSU bats came alive and an impressive 8-game winning streak and SEC Tournament Championship later, the Tigers were named the #8 national seed. With that distinction, the road to Omaha now leads through Baton Rouge for the 7th time since the new Super Regional format was put in place in 1999 and the 3rd straight year. The significance of this is that in 15 of LSU’s 16 College World Series appearances, the Tigers hosted the regional/super regional round(s).


Houston Cougars
History: 19th regional app (last 2008); 2 CWS appearances (last 1967, runner-up)
Record: 44-15
Conference: 14-9, 3rd American Athletic – won inaugural AAC tourney auto-bid
Non-Conf: 27-5
Home: 25-8
Away: 14-4
Neutral: 5-3

Record vs. RPI: (LSU numbers in parentheses)
Team RPI: 10 (9)
vs Top 25: 5-5 (6-8)
vs Top 50: 10-8 (14-11)
vs Top 100: 18-9 (23-12-1)


Team Overview:
Houston is in its 4th year under head coach Todd Whitting, and the Cougars are making their first post season under the Houston grad. The Cougars had a solid season in the brand new American Athletic Conference finishing 3rd in the league, but went on to win the inaugural AAC Conference Tourney. Houston’s non-conference RPI was #1 in the country, and many felt that their 27-5 record in those games would be enough to host a regional. Houston had some impressive wins this year, including a 3 game season sweep over former in-city rival Rice. Houston only suffered 1 series loss this season, but it was a big one in early April when AAC regular season champ Louisville swept the Cougars on their home turf. Houston is making its second trip to a Baton Rouge regional, going 0-2 back in 1997 as part of the 6-team regional format.

Team Stat Comparison (LSU in parentheses)
Runs/game scored: 5.2 (6.4)
Runs/game allowed: 2.7 (2.7)
Team ERA: 2.20 (2.42)
Team BA: .281 (.286)
Team Fielding %: .969 (.975)

Common Opponents:
Texas A&M 1-0 (LSU 1-2)


Starting Pitching:
Pitching is the backbone of this Houston club. The team ERA of 2.20 is 4th in the nation (LSU is 9th) and has improved by a run and half per game from a year ago. They don’t walk a lot of guys and have the 2nd best WHIP in the country. Aaron Garza, the staff ace, is a strike thrower who works down in the zone with a 2 seam FB and a slider. Jake Lemoine is a big 6’5 righty that works in the low-90’s and throws 4 pitches: fastball, changeup, slider, and curve. Jared West and David Longville have each spent time as weekend starters this year and will need to provide good starts for Houston to take down LSU and advance.

Projected Pitching Rotation:
Game 1: So. RHP Jake Lemoine (6-6, 2.35 ERA, 95.2 IP, 81 H, 25 ER, 23 BB, 82 K, .233 OBA, 1.09 WHIP)
Game 2: Jr. RHP Aaron Garza (8-4, 2.65 ERA, 98.1 IP, 86 H, 29 ER, 10 BB, 56 K, .236 OBA, 0.98 WHIP)
Game 3: Jr. RHP David Longville (1-0, 2.98 ERA, 54.1 IP, 63 H, 18 ER, 7 BB, 34 K, .297 OBA, 1.29 WHIP)
Game 4: So. LHP Jared West (2-2, 2.64 ERA, 47.2 IP, 36 H, 14 ER, 18 BB, 39 K, .207 OBA, 1.13 WHIP)


Relief Pitching:
Houston’s bullpen has been tremendous this year, but two guys stand out among the group and they are Tyler Ford and Chase Wellbrock. Tyler Ford is a southpaw stud and leads the nation with his 0.72 WHIP. Chase Wellbrock and his 12 saves helped him to be named to the NCBWA Midseason Stopper of the Year Watch List. Wellbrock isn’t an imposing closer and won’t overpower hitters with this mid-80s fastball, but he has a lot of movement and throws a nasty slider. Both Ford and Wellbrock can go multiple innings of relief when called upon.

Top Bullpen Arms:
Sr. RHP Chase Wellbrock (20 app, 4-0, 12 saves, 1.15 ERA, 39.0 IP, 33 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 33 K, .241 OBA, 0.97 WHIP)
Sr. LHP Tyler Ford (24 app, 8-0, 4 saves, 1.26 ERA, 64.1 IP, 41 H, 9 ER, 5 BB, 43 K, .182 OBA, 0.72 WHIP)
Fr. RHP Andrew Lantrip (12 app, 6-0, 1.40 ERA, 38.2 IP, 24 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, 32 K, .174 OBA, 0.75 WHIP)
Jr. RHP Jared Robinson (20 app, 4-1, 1.72 ERA, 31.1 IP, 23 H, 6 ER, 12 BB, 26 K, .204 OBA, 1.12 WHIP)

Houston Offense:
Houston hasn’t been an offensive prowess this season, but similar to LSU, that is what carried them to the conference tournament title, scoring 13 and 10 runs in their final two games with a .373 team average in the tournament. Josh Vidales was named tournament Most Outstanding player hitting .733 in the 4 games. The true leader of this team is senior first baseman Casey Grayson. He leads the team in hits, doubles, home runs, RBIs, walks, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and batting average. This lineup below features 4 true leftys, 2 switch-hitters, and 3 rightys; however, as a team, Houston hits for the exact same average against RHP as they do LHP. A recent spark for this club – Houston’s version of Jake Fraley, if you will – has been third baseman Conner Hollis, who his hitting .333 in 22 starts this season, most of which have come within the last month.

Houston is very aggressive on the base paths and will run at very successful rate. Kyle Survance has logged 30 stolen bases on the year, 10th most in the country. Ratcliff, Vidales, and Fulmer each have double digit steals on the season.


Houston Projected Lineup:
1) RF Kyle Survance (.315 avg, 10 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 29 RBI, 46 R, 32 BB, 43 K, 30-37 SB)
2) LF Michael Pyeatt (.305 avg, 3 2B, 2 3B, HR, 18 RBI, 17 R, 19 BB, 22 K, 5-6 SB)
3) 1B Casey Grayson (.335 avg, 16 2B, 3B, 6 HR, 48 RBI, 35 R, 46 BB, 24 K, 1-6 SB)
4) DH Justin Montemayor (.304 avg, 14 2B, HR, 30 RBI, 32 R, 11 BB, 44 K, 0-0 SB)
5) 3B Connor Hollis (.333 avg, 3 2B, 6 RBI, 12 R, 9 BB, 14 K, 1-2 SB)
6) SS Frankie Ratcliff (.281 avg, 7 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 24 RBI, 38 R, 36 BB, 28 K, 17-21 SB)
7) C Caleb Barker (.221 avg, 8 2B, 2 3B, HR, 25 RBI, 24 R, 29 BB, 33 K, 2-2 SB)
8) 2B Josh Vidales (.278 avg, 5 2B, 30 RBI, 40 R, 35 BB, 14 K, 11-14 SB)
9) CF Ashford Fulmer (.266 avg, 9 2B, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 24 R, 13 BB, 37 K, 10-13 SB)

Other Contributors:
CF Landon Appling (.225 avg, 2B, 5 RBI, 14 R, 7 BB, 15 K, 4-6 SB)
3B Jordan Stading (.228 avg, 2B, 13 RBI, 13 R, 23 BB, 24 K, 0-0 SB)

Defense:
Houston’s .969 fielding % is 104th in the nation. Middle infielders Ratcliff and Vidales have combined for a very high 31 errors this season, and the team’s 45 double plays also ranks just over 100th in country. Senior catcher Caleb Barker is outstanding behind the dish throwing out 43% of attempting stealers.

Season Stats
Roster
Schedule (via Warren Nolan)



continued in next post…