re: What is the endgame for the current ammunition “shortage?”

Neck beards are out buying up all the ammo on shipment days

There are MANY factors in play.

Covid shutdowns here and abroad have affected the raw material supply, the component supply, and probably dropped a big wet blanket on foreign ammo supplies (Fiocchi, PPU, Sellier & Bellot, PMC, Magtech, etc).
Not sure if the Russian stuff we are seeing (Wolf, Tula, Bear etc) is current or old stock stashed. I lean more towards the latter.

Covid panic raised the demand, as people started getting sick and lockdowns occurred.

Social protest/riot panics threw the demand into orbit. Things were beginning to rebound when the riots started, then EVERYTHING vanished.

Political/election anxiety/panic kicked in. Even the most devout Trump supporter knew there would be a big push to vote him out, and the Dems have always talked about gun control. Election panics are normal, this is the only "normal" aspect of what's going on.

Now, about any funny business by the government-
right about now, after the election (of a Democrat candidate), is the period where the more "concerned" would spend a little bit extra, and stock up before any changes could occur. This year, due to the pre-existing Covid stuff, that's going to be darn hard to do. You might be able to grab a rifle, for example, but you're going to pay through the nose to get ammo for it right now. By the time stock has returned to normal, it might be too late to beat any political moves- you might be facing an online ammo ban, for example.

So you have to balance that out- do you think the risk of an ammo restriction or elevated taxes is so strong, that it's worth paying current Covid-inflated prices now? If so and it means enough to you, then do it. Otherwise wait out the current crunch, and pick stuff up afterwards.

Walmart dropping out of the handgun/assault rifle calibers has set a lot of unease for folks. Without them, you're stuck to hoping Academy, Cabelas, Bass Pro will have stock, and will stay fair. If online vanishes, they're really your only option (outside of reloading, which is also pinched tight right now).

For the gun owner, you have to hope the very large surge of gun buying has told the Dems "America wants their guns, don't frick around too much".

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but what you’re seeing right now is nothing but panic buying

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Disagree

I have seen more people out shooting this year than I have ever seen. Obviously because people have had a lot more "off" time this year.

Like its at least three times the amount of people at the places I go to than last year.

Myself? I have gone out a frick ton more too.

Lots more people needing lots of ammo that is actually getting used.

Hopefully some new manufactures pop up

I’m not sure it’s a threat on the 2A so much as it is as a means of “Lining their Pockets”. This apparent run on ammo and fear of supplies running short is great for business. And who owns Olin..? One of the largest projectile companies in the world.

SWIM in Lawrence Kansas who worked at the Sports Authority there selling guns said back during the original .22 shortage (around 2013?) they would purposely short their own shelves to prevent people from basically HOARDING ammo.

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I have no doubts this ammunition shortage is done on purpose...and to keep us from exercising the 2a for which it was written. I do feel trouble is coming.

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That makes zero sense

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an online ammo ban

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Yep, stuff like this is how the liberals will enact gun control. Not so much taking away guns but strangling people’s ability to buy guns and ammo.