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re: BP Bankruptcy?

Posted on 6/9/10 at 10:24 pm to
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
20580 posts
Posted on 6/9/10 at 10:24 pm to

quote:

BP Oil is part of the worldwide group of exploration, marketing, refining and chemical companies operating in the BP group of companies, owned by BP plc. BP's activities span six continents, employing close to 100,000 people in over 100 countries. BP Oil is the organization responsible for the refining and marketing businesses in Europe. It operates over 8,900 retail sites in 15 European countries. BP is one of the largest oil companies in Europe with further plans for growth.


BPs tangible assets are well over 100B, they will have no problem footing this bill.
I would not worry about BPs stock price, buy it when it bottoms out here soon then turn a huge profit here in 2-4 years.

Posted by LSUDad
Still on the move
Member since May 2004
61935 posts
Posted on 6/9/10 at 10:33 pm to
quote:

BPs tangible assets are well over 100B, they will have no problem footing this bill.


True......How long after the Valdez did Exxon merge (FYI, it was a Hostil Takeover) with Mobil? Remember these oil companies go in partnership all the time. Think of all the gas thats sold in one day in the US/the world. If all raise the price 5 cent a gal., how much money is that a day?
Posted by sheek
New Albany, OH
Member since Sep 2007
44131 posts
Posted on 6/9/10 at 10:34 pm to
quote:

Chrysler Corp. decided? You sure about that?


Posted by tigerfan4444
Member since Apr 2008
702 posts
Posted on 6/9/10 at 10:36 pm to
quote:

They will cut their dividends which caused their stock to tank over the last few weeks


They haven't cut their dividend yet. Shareholders are scheduled to receive the dividend later this month.



As far as their prospects as a takeover candidate. I don't see it. Wno would want the headache? The acquirer would still be on the hook for BP's liabilities. BP might sell their properties to meet the liabilities.

The stock has already taken more than a 50% discount. Traders are pricing in the possibility of a future dividend cut in whole or part. They are also pricing in the possibility of a bankruptcy.

Check out the June and July puts. People were making big bets buying the 25 and 30 July puts like crazy around noon. There were also crazy buys all the way to July 7.50 puts!

That being said, earlier in the day someone put down almost 5 mill selling the July 32 puts thinking that was the bottom for now. I don't think they are all to happy now with the stock closing close to the 29 strike.
Posted by jennBN
Member since Jun 2010
3242 posts
Posted on 6/9/10 at 10:38 pm to
quote:

True......How long after the Valdez did Exxon merge (FYI, it was a Hostil Takeover) with Mobil? Remember these oil companies go in partnership all the time. Think of all the gas thats sold in one day in the US/the world. If all raise the price 5 cent a gal., how much money is that a day?


This was actually my original question. I know NOTHING of the oil industry, but I own COP and XOM. I considered buying BP at $35 but now it is dropping so fast I don't know what bottom to consider. At what point would another company consider a takeover with all the debt hanging over BP or is that even possible?
Posted by jennBN
Member since Jun 2010
3242 posts
Posted on 6/9/10 at 10:43 pm to
Tigerfan444

Thank you so much for weighing in. I wish I understood options....it would probably be very lucrative right now with this spill...
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
20580 posts
Posted on 6/9/10 at 10:45 pm to
A merger is possible but unlikely, I would hold off on buying PB stock for a while, as long as the media is pounding this story it is going to stay down.
Posted by tigerfan4444
Member since Apr 2008
702 posts
Posted on 6/9/10 at 11:05 pm to


I was just about to jump on the july 35 calls earlier as it was hitting 32 when I heard about the massive put buying in the July 25s and 30s. Thankfully I didn't execute the order. Even as the stock moved from 32 down to 31.70 those july 35 calls went up in price - not supposed to happen. The volatility juiced the price.

Made 30% with DO (Diamond Offshore) June puts held for an hour this morning (6/8).



Do you think that regulators would approve such a merger if there was a company crazy enough to buy it with all of BP's liabilities -- 6,000 lawsuits and counting, clean up, etc.?

As I am typing this reply a Reuters story just hit the wires making a case for a Petro China - BP deal.

I doubt lawmakers and regulators would approve this deal though. Unless they got rid of all US interests.

Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
28165 posts
Posted on 6/9/10 at 11:09 pm to
quote:

Petro China - BP deal.


If bankruptcy is happening, any deal would be welcomed by all governments. Who wants BP to not be able to pay their debt?
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
20580 posts
Posted on 6/9/10 at 11:10 pm to
I would hate to see that merger, for political reasons though.
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
20580 posts
Posted on 6/9/10 at 11:11 pm to
quote:

If bankruptcy is happening


They wouldn't be paying people if that was happening.
Posted by LSUDad
Still on the move
Member since May 2004
61935 posts
Posted on 6/9/10 at 11:17 pm to
quote:

At what point would another company consider a takeover with all the debt hanging over BP or is that even possible?


Like I said, these companies go in partnership all the time. Ever look at a pipeline right-of-way? Look to see the companies in this pipeline. Look and see who was buying oil from these BP wells. Look at who they sell to. The government backs smaller refineries, they get the best crude. Take Placid Refining in Port Allen, it will only run South La. Crude.

The two major oil producers in Prudhoe Bay are BP (British Petroleum) and Phillips (formerly ARCO). In addition, there are about five other oil companies with a financial interest. Like I said, partnerships.
Posted by oilfieldtiger
Pittsburgh, PA
Member since Dec 2003
2904 posts
Posted on 6/9/10 at 11:26 pm to
quote:

The two major oil producers in Prudhoe Bay are BP (British Petroleum) and Phillips (formerly ARCO)

to clarify, i believe the original 3 slope producers were BP, Arco, and Phillips. When BP bought Arco, the Arco slope assets were sold to Phillips to make the merger work w/ the FTC.
Posted by LSUDad
Still on the move
Member since May 2004
61935 posts
Posted on 6/9/10 at 11:45 pm to
quote:

to clarify, i believe the original 3 slope producers were BP, Arco, and Phillips. When BP bought Arco, the Arco slope assets were sold to Phillips to make the merger work w/ the FTC.


North Slope crude from Alaska was brought down the West coast, Exxon had a couple smaller ship (Ones that were able to go through the Panama Canal) the Baton Rouge and the San Francisco.

The Baton Rouge was used to offload the Valdez after the spill, later, the San Francisco was used to lighter .....
LINK
Posted by ThePoo
Work
Member since Jan 2007
61331 posts
Posted on 6/10/10 at 2:45 am to
It appears that some dont wish BP to remain solvent and i dont get it
This post was edited on 6/10/10 at 2:47 am
Posted by GeorgeLSU
30.41155, -91.18296
Member since Jul 2008
854 posts
Posted on 6/10/10 at 10:09 am to
I have a feeling this will end up similar to the Union Carbide incident in Bhopal,India. Union Carbide was a fairly large company (34 on Fortune 500 in 1984). It is STILL going to court as recent as June 7, 2010. The company was eventually bought by Dow in 2001.

Different situation as it involved a chemical spill on land, but how it affected people and the land for decades (and more to come) is very similar to what we have now and in the future.
Posted by tigerfan4444
Member since Apr 2008
702 posts
Posted on 6/10/10 at 10:38 am to


They just opened up the $2.50 and $5.00 puts on BP.

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