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re: Winter Storm Leon Updates - No More OP Updates..

Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:00 am to
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:00 am to
we're almost to the point where model watching is useless though.. its all about timing. the cold air is there.. the moisture is there.. we just have to see where it all mashes together perfectly.
This post was edited on 1/27/14 at 6:01 am
Posted by 4LSU2
Member since Dec 2009
38062 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:02 am to
I can't wait to see Alexandra Cranford on wwl during this storm.
Posted by FCP
Delta State Univ. - Fightin' Okra
Member since Sep 2010
5167 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:04 am to
Is it just me, or are some of the models backing away from the overnight projections of sudden doom? I'm seeing forecast temps on Tuesday slightly above freezing for north Livingston Parish and temps well above freezing on Wednesday. Can't determine if those forecasts are running with or behind the current models. It still looks like a pretty major deal--just maybe not imminent death and destruction.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:06 am to
quote:

Is it just me, or are some of the models backing away from the overnight projections of sudden doom? I'm seeing forecast temps on Tuesday slightly above freezing for north Livingston Parish and temps well above freezing on Wednesday. Can't determine if those forecasts are running with or behind the current models. It still looks like a pretty major deal--just maybe not imminent death and destruction.


The models had slowed down a bit, like i said its all about timing... its now-casting time.

Temps are supposed to be well below freezing.
Posted by ole man
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2007
17911 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:09 am to
I agree, it's a timing issue if cold was here today it be a lot worse
Posted by jlc05
Member since Nov 2005
33407 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:18 am to
Ugh, the citrus trees in Plaquemines will take a pounding
Posted by ole man
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2007
17911 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:20 am to
Lost a ton of leaves on my lemon not to bad on oranges
Posted by JBeam
Guns,Germs & Steel
Member since Jan 2011
68377 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:40 am to
Keep in mind that this is just one model.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24534 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:43 am to
quote:

Temps are supposed to be well below freezing.


Yeah, the NWS has BR at 32 or below for 61 hours!

KBTR...FROPA AROUND 830 AM...ONSET OF FREEZE 2 AM...ENDING NOON THU...
DURATION 61 HOURS. ONSET OF WINTER PRECIP AROUND 6 AM TUE ENDING
AROUND 6 AM WEDNESDAY
This post was edited on 1/27/14 at 6:45 am
Posted by JBeam
Guns,Germs & Steel
Member since Jan 2011
68377 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:45 am to
The temp for Thursday keeps dropping with every update.
Posted by lsut2005
Northshore
Member since Jul 2009
2682 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:46 am to
quote:

JBeam


Hope they let us off work!
This post was edited on 1/27/14 at 6:47 am
Posted by TigahRag
Sorting Out OT BS Since 2005
Member since May 2005
132775 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:50 am to
Model watching is useless at this point .. Just like hurricane season, you can always find one that says what you want it to say, and 95% of them wind up being wrong in the end ... Rds never answered my question as to what these models said last Wednesday night about the Friday event .. Hell, I don't think we were even discussing the weather on here leading up to last week ...

Everyone's just more aware this go around ... This is Louisiana, and you're just not going to be able to predict winter weather accurately ... Personally, I don't want it to happen and see this city and region strangled for 2 days again .. It's horrible for business and will set companies back weeks .. I know most on here just want to be out of school ...

At any rate, it is what it is and whatever is going to happen will .. Hurricane models are rarely accurate, and we're in hurricane alley .. I doubt winter weather models in a part of the country that has not seen a combined 12 inches of snow over the last 115+ years will be either .. You're wasting your time beating this into the ground talking about NAM, BAM, WHAM, JAM, HAM, and CRAM being in agreement at 18khz with a triangular imperative congruent with the latent moisture field .. Just sit back and let it happen ..

Five years from now, no one's going to remember who started this thread .. Stay warm !!
Posted by CadesCove
Mounting the Woman
Member since Oct 2006
40828 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:52 am to
quote:

Five years from now, no one's going to remember who started this thread ..


Has Alexa posted in it yet?
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:52 am to
quote:

Model watching is useless at this point .


thats exactly what i just said.

quote:

Five years from now, no one's going to remember who started this thread .


still don't give a frick.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105197 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:52 am to
Latest forecast if for 1-3 inches of snow in Cenla.
Posted by JBeam
Guns,Germs & Steel
Member since Jan 2011
68377 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:54 am to
you will be bud!
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18048 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 6:58 am to
quote:

You're wasting your time beating this into the ground talking about NAM, BAM, WHAM, JAM, HAM, and CRAM

Hey, you leave George Michael out of this.
Posted by TigahRag
Sorting Out OT BS Since 2005
Member since May 2005
132775 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 7:00 am to
Not talking about you specifically in this instance .. But, overall, don't say you don't give a frick ..

You start threads every time one of the 235 info apps you have on your smartphone alerts you to a story .. You jockey these threads like a Fairgrounds rider and instantly reply to people .. Don't say you don't give a frick .. You were pissed when other posters beat you to the punch during last week's event and ran from thread to thread crying "Germans" .. You don't give a frick ..
Posted by MOT
Member since Jul 2006
30948 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 7:00 am to
Tigah Rag has spoken. Whack the thread, nothing to see here.
Posted by TigahRag
Sorting Out OT BS Since 2005
Member since May 2005
132775 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 7:03 am to
Not yet !! Where will the 24 pretty colored copy and paste maps from the 8AM advisory from the NW Asian model get posted ?????
This post was edited on 1/27/14 at 7:04 am
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