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re: What is your blackjack strategy?
Posted on 3/5/21 at 12:54 pm to greygoose
Posted on 3/5/21 at 12:54 pm to greygoose
quote:
Yep. I have no idea what I'm talking about. Keep hitting that 13 when the dealer has 3, 4, or 5 showing. I'm sure that will work out more times than not.
Don’t think anyone said that’s a good idea
0
Posted on 3/5/21 at 12:55 pm to EA6B
quote:
“There is no question that each player following the rules of basic strategy, is playing his hand in the optimal fashion and as a result, cutting the dealer’s advantage to the absolute minimum. However, the incremental advantage gained against the dealer’s edge, by playing basic strategy, does not translate to the other players at the table. A player that varies from the rules of basic strategy and takes a hit when they should not, ONLY AFFECTS THEIR OWN chance of winning the hand. Their decision can just as much help the dealer as hurt the dealer. Conversely, a player that stands when basic strategy says to hit or double, is just as likely to make a card available to hurt the dealer as help him.”
It confuses me as to why people don't understand this.
It's like people who get mad at losing a sports bet because of a bad beat. Over time you will benefit from good beats just as much as you get screwed by bad beats. Same with a black jack table. The idiot players will help you just as much as they hurt in over the long run.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 12:59 pm to BitBuster
quote:
If you played at a table full of robots, each armed with the optimal blackjack strategy, you'd still lose in the long run. The math is always on the casino's side. All you can do is to hope to win in the short term.
The only way you can gain any kind of mathematical edge in black jack is by counting, but the casinos have so many counter measures that its not even worth it. Yet, reading this thread, its full of people who think they can gain a mathematical edge by doing basic shite. You think if you could gain an edge by doing basic shite, there wouldn't be people out there using said strategies right now to enrich themselves? Casinos would go bankrupt by the end of the day.
It's easy to count down a single deck in black jack, but if they set the blackjack payout odds to 6:5 and don't let you split aces for example, no amount of counting in the world can overcome that.
Another casino I went to dealt cards face down as their anti-counting measure.
The only reason you should play blackjack is to have a good time and go in with the expectation that you will lose your money, because the rules and payout tables are designed to ensure the house has a mathematical edge over the player. If you are playing to win money you are playing for the wrong reasons.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 1:00 pm to trussthetruzz
I vary my bet a good bit. Will swing from 10 dollars to a couple hundred depending on the flow of the game/cards. Not officially counting cards but paying attention to general amount of faces/aces coming out vs the bad cards.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 1:01 pm to trussthetruzz
If you play good basic strategy, you’re just under a 50% win probability. If you bet the same amount every time and you win roughly every other hand, then you’ll break even.
One way to increase your chance of making $$ is to use a progressive betting strategy. If you could count cards successfully and if/when the deck/shoe roll in favor of hitting BJ, then you would increase your bet when the deck/shoe is in your favor. Without that, a decent way is to capitalize on winning streaks when they happen.
Even if you lose 50% of hands, it’s all about the streaks. If you lose 10 hands in a row then win 10 hands in a row, and you bet the same amount every time, you come out where you started. If you bet the same amount (e.g. table minimum) but then press that bet once you’ve won 2-3 hands in a row, you’re then playing with house money, but increase your win-$.
When I win big at blackjack, I’ll get 2 maybe 3 10+ hand streaks over 4-5 hours. Those short little streaks make you bank if you progress the betting.
One way to increase your chance of making $$ is to use a progressive betting strategy. If you could count cards successfully and if/when the deck/shoe roll in favor of hitting BJ, then you would increase your bet when the deck/shoe is in your favor. Without that, a decent way is to capitalize on winning streaks when they happen.
Even if you lose 50% of hands, it’s all about the streaks. If you lose 10 hands in a row then win 10 hands in a row, and you bet the same amount every time, you come out where you started. If you bet the same amount (e.g. table minimum) but then press that bet once you’ve won 2-3 hands in a row, you’re then playing with house money, but increase your win-$.
When I win big at blackjack, I’ll get 2 maybe 3 10+ hand streaks over 4-5 hours. Those short little streaks make you bank if you progress the betting.
This post was edited on 3/5/21 at 1:25 pm
Posted on 3/5/21 at 1:03 pm to trussthetruzz
I play by the book; I memorize the chart. I can't card count, but I do try to pay attention to whether there has been a run on low numbers as opposed to 10's and adjust my bet accordingly.
The casinos love nothing better than to have you make a move on a hunch. In the long run (and the time period is not that long) there is no such thing as luck. The odds are the only thing that is important.
The casinos love nothing better than to have you make a move on a hunch. In the long run (and the time period is not that long) there is no such thing as luck. The odds are the only thing that is important.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 1:18 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
I refuse to acknowledge that. "A lot" is a parcel of property, etc. Alot is many of a particular thing.
You're doubling down on your ignorance then. You are aware words can have multiple meanings, right? Alot isn't a word. Read this article about the "alot monster" for a deeper explanation.
Alot monster
Posted on 3/5/21 at 1:37 pm to Atttaboy
quote:
Even if you lose 50% of hands, it’s all about the streaks. If you lose 10 hands in a row then win 10 hands in a row, and you bet the same amount every time, you come out where you started. If you bet the same amount (e.g. table minimum) but then press that bet once you’ve won 2-3 hands in a row, you’re then playing with house money, but increase your win-$.
When I win big at blackjack, I’ll get 2 maybe 3 10+ hand streaks over 4-5 hours. Those short little streaks make you bank if you progress the betting.
It's called the reverse martingale.
The martingale system math if you do a monte carlo simulation on it shows that you are willing to sacrifice the chances of making a large profit and instead greatly increase your odds at a small profit. The downside being is that the small chance of the system failing will bust you out. For example, 90% chance of winning a small profit, 10% chance of losing your entire chip stack.
The reverse martingale is the opposite, it attempts to maximize your odds at a large profit at the expense of also maximizing your odds of busting out very quickly. For example, 10% chance of making a big profit, 90% chance of slowly losing your stack.
Over the long run, no matter what strategy you use, whether it be flat betting, martingale, reverse martingale, the end result is the same - the house will win the theoretical house edge loss from you. It's just that how the theoretical loss is distributed is different.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 1:50 pm to trussthetruzz
I find the smallest minimum bet table and milk it for a couple beers, never lost more than $40. Completely worth the free beer and entertainment.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 2:33 pm to trussthetruzz
Can’t tell you that, then we’d all be rich.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 4:07 pm to BitBuster
quote:
f you played at a table full of robots, each armed with the optimal blackjack strategy, you'd still lose in the long run. The math is always on the casino's side. All you can do is to hope to win in the short term. The Vegas strip wasn't paved by winners.
Absolutely correct.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 6:25 pm to MikeinHoover
quote:6/5 BJ plus you can't get any rhythm going if you aren't playing by yourself. There's a reason why you don't see it in a HL salon.
What’s the opinion on Single Deck? Went to Harrahs a couple of weeks ago. Empty single deck tables. $25 minimum bet. They all payed 6:5 Blackjack. I heard the odds are a little more favorable to the player in single deck, but is it worth it for 6:5 payouts?
Posted on 3/5/21 at 6:30 pm to EA6B
quote:If a player takes a hit, when they shouldn't, and they get a 10, it removes that 10 from the deck and your chances of getting a needed 10 decreases.
They don’t, anyone that believes this has little understanding of them basic probability and statistics involved in table games
Posted on 3/5/21 at 6:34 pm to greygoose
Here's a universal rule of gambling: The minute you lower your bet, you get a great hand.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 6:46 pm to trussthetruzz
Play by the book, but remember, there is a reason there are more blackjack tables on the floor than anything else (slots excluded). Take a shot every now and then if you “feel” it, but don’t depend on the gut. Good luck.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 7:39 pm to trussthetruzz
To play craps.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 7:56 pm to greygoose
quote:
If a player takes a hit, when they shouldn't, and they get a 10, it removes that 10 from the deck and your chances of getting a needed 10 decreases.
The probability of the dealer having the 10 also decreased.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 8:04 pm to trussthetruzz
Follow the rules that give you the best odds and do it every time so the odds can proof out. If you want to get fancy split 2’s or crap like that. Don’t be an a-hole that screws others on the table. Play double deck pitch if you can find it
Posted on 3/6/21 at 8:21 am to X82ndTiger
quote:I don't play craps, but I have a buddy that does. He only plays "no 10". Really pisses off some of the other players, but in his words "frick'em". I've seen him win a ton of money, and he's also borrowed $15K from me when he busted out in a few hours.
To play craps.
Posted on 3/6/21 at 8:23 am to EA6B
quote:Agreed, but in situations like splitting aces,.......
The probability of the dealer having the 10 also decreased.
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