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Weather thread Re the Alabama F4:

Posted on 3/4/19 at 7:04 pm
Posted by Scoop
RIP Scoop
Member since Sep 2005
44583 posts
Posted on 3/4/19 at 7:04 pm
Did the SPC get caught slipping on this?

I’ve gone back through the SPC stuff yesterday and I don’t see any indication that they saw any potential for something that could put down a 4.

I don’t think they issued a PDS.
Posted by PurpleandGold Motown
Waltzing Between the Raindrops
Member since Oct 2007
24827 posts
Posted on 3/4/19 at 7:06 pm to
I think they were predicting maybe a few F2s. No model had something that big predicted.
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora
Member since Sep 2012
76075 posts
Posted on 3/4/19 at 7:07 pm to
What is spc?
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora
Member since Sep 2012
76075 posts
Posted on 3/4/19 at 7:08 pm to
Atl mets were warning for strong storms several days ahead.
Posted by DoctorTechnical
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2009
3039 posts
Posted on 3/4/19 at 7:11 pm to
I want to recall seeing one. Checking Twitter, and I do see them calling out almost the exact area almost two hours before the event.

LINK

Posted by biggsc
Member since Mar 2009
34777 posts
Posted on 3/4/19 at 8:07 pm to
Storm Prediction Center. It’s in Norman, OK on the campus of OU
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21667 posts
Posted on 3/4/19 at 8:42 pm to
quote:

Did the SPC get caught slipping on this?


No.








SPC issued watches early with the 1st MCD coming at 10:00am and then watches not long after that. There was some internal discussion around issuing a PDS watch but the thinking was that storms would line out quickly. The 1st Convective Outlook of the day, issued at 11:58pm on the 2nd highlighted the upper end threat:

quote:

There is a conditional threat for supercells to develop across the open warm sector ahead of the front per some convection-allowing model guidance, mainly in parts of southern/eastern AL into western GA this afternoon. If this scenario were to occur, then a few tornadoes would be possible given the strong shear associated with the previously mentioned low-level jet. A couple of these tornadoes could be strong where the greatest instability and shear are forecast to overlap, but much uncertainty remains regarding a favorable supercell mode/development ahead of the front.


Unfortunately, storms reached their max potential in the environment yesterday...
Posted by genuineLSUtiger
Nashville
Member since Sep 2005
77214 posts
Posted on 3/4/19 at 8:45 pm to
I feel for those folks in Alabama. Such a random event. Good people down there.
Posted by Pedro
Geaux Hawks
Member since Jul 2008
39311 posts
Posted on 3/4/19 at 8:47 pm to
Rds what’s your job title again? I think I’ve asked you before but I forgot
This post was edited on 3/4/19 at 8:47 pm
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51941 posts
Posted on 3/4/19 at 9:28 pm to
In hindsight, this threat played out to be one that would typically warrant at least a moderate risk. However, none of the models truly indicated that this would be a setup that needed a moderate risk, would produce an EF-4 tornado, or that it would produce as many tornadoes as it did. It should be noted that the second strongest tornado was a high end EF-2, which was more on par with what I think people thought would happpen.

SPC noted in their mesoscale discussions yesterday, even before everything really got going, that they were concerned about the potential for a few strong tornadoes.

Hindsight is always 20/20, and they will certainly review all of the data and work on improving. But no, I don’t think SPC slipped.
This post was edited on 3/4/19 at 9:31 pm
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51941 posts
Posted on 3/4/19 at 9:34 pm to
Here is some absolutely incredible drone video of it. Technology is really allowing us to see tornadoes better than ever before.

LINK
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66984 posts
Posted on 3/4/19 at 9:45 pm to
Further, bad weather was predicted for the area several days in advance.

The real problem,if you want to call it that, is that tornadoes are, in the grand scale, very isolated.
Not like hurricanes where everyone needs to get out.
Too many people are passive, and frankly don't have a serious place to seek shelter.
This post was edited on 3/4/19 at 9:46 pm
Posted by TT9
Seychelles
Member since Sep 2008
91793 posts
Posted on 3/4/19 at 9:47 pm to
I just hate global warming.
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