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Weather thread Re the Alabama F4:
Posted on 3/4/19 at 7:04 pm
Posted on 3/4/19 at 7:04 pm
Did the SPC get caught slipping on this?
I’ve gone back through the SPC stuff yesterday and I don’t see any indication that they saw any potential for something that could put down a 4.
I don’t think they issued a PDS.
I’ve gone back through the SPC stuff yesterday and I don’t see any indication that they saw any potential for something that could put down a 4.
I don’t think they issued a PDS.
Posted on 3/4/19 at 7:06 pm to Scoop
I think they were predicting maybe a few F2s. No model had something that big predicted.
Posted on 3/4/19 at 7:08 pm to Scoop
Atl mets were warning for strong storms several days ahead.
Posted on 3/4/19 at 8:07 pm to deeprig9
Storm Prediction Center. It’s in Norman, OK on the campus of OU
Posted on 3/4/19 at 8:42 pm to Scoop
quote:
Did the SPC get caught slipping on this?
No.
SPC issued watches early with the 1st MCD coming at 10:00am and then watches not long after that. There was some internal discussion around issuing a PDS watch but the thinking was that storms would line out quickly. The 1st Convective Outlook of the day, issued at 11:58pm on the 2nd highlighted the upper end threat:
quote:
There is a conditional threat for supercells to develop across the open warm sector ahead of the front per some convection-allowing model guidance, mainly in parts of southern/eastern AL into western GA this afternoon. If this scenario were to occur, then a few tornadoes would be possible given the strong shear associated with the previously mentioned low-level jet. A couple of these tornadoes could be strong where the greatest instability and shear are forecast to overlap, but much uncertainty remains regarding a favorable supercell mode/development ahead of the front.
Unfortunately, storms reached their max potential in the environment yesterday...
Posted on 3/4/19 at 8:45 pm to rds dc
I feel for those folks in Alabama. Such a random event. Good people down there.
Posted on 3/4/19 at 8:47 pm to rds dc
Rds what’s your job title again? I think I’ve asked you before but I forgot
This post was edited on 3/4/19 at 8:47 pm
Posted on 3/4/19 at 9:28 pm to Scoop
In hindsight, this threat played out to be one that would typically warrant at least a moderate risk. However, none of the models truly indicated that this would be a setup that needed a moderate risk, would produce an EF-4 tornado, or that it would produce as many tornadoes as it did. It should be noted that the second strongest tornado was a high end EF-2, which was more on par with what I think people thought would happpen.
SPC noted in their mesoscale discussions yesterday, even before everything really got going, that they were concerned about the potential for a few strong tornadoes.
Hindsight is always 20/20, and they will certainly review all of the data and work on improving. But no, I don’t think SPC slipped.
SPC noted in their mesoscale discussions yesterday, even before everything really got going, that they were concerned about the potential for a few strong tornadoes.
Hindsight is always 20/20, and they will certainly review all of the data and work on improving. But no, I don’t think SPC slipped.
This post was edited on 3/4/19 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 3/4/19 at 9:34 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Here is some absolutely incredible drone video of it. Technology is really allowing us to see tornadoes better than ever before.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 3/4/19 at 9:45 pm to Scoop
Further, bad weather was predicted for the area several days in advance.
The real problem,if you want to call it that, is that tornadoes are, in the grand scale, very isolated.
Not like hurricanes where everyone needs to get out.
Too many people are passive, and frankly don't have a serious place to seek shelter.
The real problem,if you want to call it that, is that tornadoes are, in the grand scale, very isolated.
Not like hurricanes where everyone needs to get out.
Too many people are passive, and frankly don't have a serious place to seek shelter.
This post was edited on 3/4/19 at 9:46 pm
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