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Started By
Message
re: Violent crime dropped an estimated 3% in the United States last year, FBI crime data shows
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:21 am to Gaggle
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:21 am to Gaggle
quote:
FBI data is what’s used for national political purposes
So you're arguing that by leaving out big cities reporting big deceases in crime, the FBI data may be under-reporting the national crime decrease?
Interesting.
0
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:22 am to Knuckle Checker
quote:
Ok why was crime up?
Covid and George Floyd nonsense.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:24 am to TaderSalad
quote:Bingo
Well known that a lot of woke metropolitan areas simply stopped reporting to UCR cause stats be rayciss n shite.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:26 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:i’m certain you’ve investigated their modeling methods
They're modeling that data, not excluding it.
quote:there is no aggregate trend when 30% of depts, disproportionately skewed to high crime cities in a nation where crime rates are highly heterogeneously spread. It’s a model versus a model
Also the modeled data seems to fall within the aggregate trends,
It’s not a conspiracy theory that the FBI is highly political and corrupt. If you want to know why it exploded when it was being reported and then they stopped reporting and model it down now that it’s an election year, I bet you could put yourself in the shoes of a conspiracy theorist and come up with something
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:28 am to Gaius
Yes it was used in the debate by the moderators to fact check Trump. It just happened in the most political sense possible
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:29 am to Gaggle
quote:
there is no aggregate trend when 30% of depts, disproportionately skewed to high crime cities in a nation where crime rates are highly heterogeneously spread. It’s a model versus a model
But the aggregate trend in those cities, based on data (not reported) follows the modeling.
You skipped over the part about the actual trends being available to analyze.
quote:
If you want to know why it exploded when it was being reported and then they stopped reporting and model it down now that it’s an election year, I bet you could put yourself in the shoes of a conspiracy theorist and come up with something
So they hurt Biden and the Democrats so that they could defend Biden and the Democrats?
And you think this is logical?
Why not just have crime go down the entire Biden admin? Why manufacture a fake crime spike to hurt Democrats nationally in the first place? You do know the 2022 midterms occurred around when this (fake, per you) crime wave was peaking?
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:29 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Then the conspiracy theorists
get the frick out of here. you’re such a piece a shite SFP.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:30 am to Klark Kent
quote:
get the frick out of here. you’re such a piece a shite
I'm a piece of shite for relying on the data reported by the cities themselves?
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:30 am to RLDSC FAN
Here is a useful commentary on these FBI statistics from today's Wall Street Journal, in a piece entitled "Contrary to Media Myth, U.S. Urban Crime Rates Are Up: The FBI’s flawed statistics hide the disturbing results of the defund-the-police movement since 2020"
LINK
LINK
quote:
Such NCVS findings are far more reliable than the Federal Bureau of Investigation figures that left-leaning commentators emphasize, for five reasons. First, the NCVS figures are finalized statistics, not unpolished, partial-year preliminary figures. Second, the FBI switched to a new reporting system in 2021 that makes year-to-year comparisons (from before to after its change) difficult if not impossible.
Third, the NCVS is a nationally representative survey, while the FBI lacks data from a relatively large number of law enforcement agencies, including the Los Angeles Police Department, and it hasn’t had the same mix of agencies reporting data each year. Fourth, the FBI isn’t considered a principal statistical agency by the federal government, so its ability to compensate for such missing data is limited.
Fifth, the NCVS captures crimes whether they are reported to the police or not. In the 2023 NCVS, crime victims conveyed that a majority—55%—of violent victimizations weren’t reported to the police, while 70% of property-crime victimizations weren’t reported. The FBI publishes data only on crimes reported to the police, which means it doesn’t capture most crimes.
Since the summer of 2020, when many cities adopted lax law enforcement policies, the U.S. has experienced a huge urban crime spike. The newly released figures don’t show this urban crime spike abating. If we insist on rerunning the failed social experiments of the 1960s and ’70s, we should expect similar results. Thanks to the success of “broken windows” policing in the 1990s and 2000s, we know what works. When will our cities adopt such sensible policies in lieu of their current ones?
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 11:32 am
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:30 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
So they hurt Biden and the Democrats so that they could defend Biden and the Democrats?
Read it again. There was data one year. It was bad. So they reacted the following years
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:31 am to Gaggle
quote:
Read it again. There was data one year. It was bad. So they reacted the following years
Why would they manufacture fake data to be bad in the first place?
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:32 am to SlowFlowPro
They didn’t. Reporting dropped precipitously just in the last few years.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:33 am to SlowFlowPro
Can you give any logical explanation why failure to report went from 3% to 31% in 2 years?
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:34 am to Gaggle
quote:
They didn’t.
So "they" manufacture data when it hurts your assumptions, and the data that confirms your assumptions is legitimate?
Got it
quote:
Reporting dropped precipitously just in the last few years.
Only because the FBI moved to a different system in January of 2021, prior to the huge crime spike we saw later that year and in 2022.
And I'm quite positive the decision to change systems occurred when Trump was still President (either 2019 or 2020).
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:35 am to Gaggle
quote:
Can you give any logical explanation why failure to report went from 3% to 31% in 2 years?
The FBI changed their system starting January 2021.
Here is the announcement
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 11:37 am
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:36 am to SlowFlowPro
And why did individual reporting on robberies go from 64% to 44%?
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:37 am to SlowFlowPro
Must not be counting the North BR numbers…
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:37 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
They're modeling that data, not excluding it.
That makes this an inaccurate report.
quote:
Then the conspiracy theorists can explain why these jurisdictions manipulated their data to make crime explode....under a Democratic Presidential admin, no less.
You can only cover up so much. I actually think the numbers are much higher that was reported under a Dem admin and this was the best they could do.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:38 am to ell_13
quote:
Must not be counting the North BR numbers…
BR does seem to be an outlier in the national trend. It's pretty sad.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:40 am to Gaggle
quote:
And why did individual reporting on robberies go from 64% to 44%?
SFP has made another miraculous 180 degree board personality shift and now assures us all that the govt wouldn’t lie to you.
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