Ugh..Severe weather already predicted for next Tuesday, the 27th and Wednesday, the 28th

quote:

---

...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to show a powerful mid- to upper-level trough ejecting into the central U.S. by late Tuesday into Wednesday. A deep cyclone is currently progged by most ensemble members to move from the central Great Plains into the Great Lakes vicinity. Preceding this upper trough, an antecedent re-charging of steep lapse rates associated with an elevated mixed layer over the southern High Plains is forecast. A few days of airmass modification, both in terms of ambient temperature and moistening over the Gulf Basin, will occur in wake of frontal passage on Saturday. Northward moisture return beneath the aforementioned EML will probably result in a substantial warm sector by late afternoon Tuesday and into Wednesday farther east. Model run-to-run continuity is such that there is increased confidence in the introduction of 15-percent severe-risk highlights with the expected eastward progression of the trough. Will defer the possibility of an additional area farther east on Thursday until confidence in details related to earlier days becomes more focused.

---