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re: TS Elsa - Heading off to the NE, Then Shut the Tropics Down for a Couple of Weeks
Posted on 7/2/21 at 11:17 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 7/2/21 at 11:17 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Not looking nearly as good on the 00z GFS. It has still not stacked when it gets near Jamaica. It almost rips it apart, but it holds on at 1009mb as it approaches Cuba. More East on the Cuban landfall, and Cuba really knocks Elsa's dick in the dirt. It really slows down with it almost having a Westward motion across Cuba (first time we've seen that from the GFS). This run has it spending almost a whole day moving East to West across Cuba, and is around 1007mb when it leaves the island at around 12z Tuesday. Eventual FL landfall somewhere around the scrotal region at ~996mb. No hook to the East really after landfall. This run keeps it well away from the coast and takes it into North GA.
This run is interesting in that the Westward shift gives Elsa more time over the Gulf and more time to restrengthen after that serious bout with Cuba.
This post was edited on 7/2/21 at 11:25 pm
2
Posted on 7/3/21 at 12:20 am to LegendInMyMind
The media conglomerates’ unity in attributing this to climate change will be my favorite part of this storm and the rest that follow. It’s by design and not a coincidence. And the headlines will start rolling out as early as tonight. That’s all I have to contribute.
Insert something about crawfish prices or some such.
Insert something about crawfish prices or some such.
Posted on 7/3/21 at 12:37 am to LegendInMyMind
HWRF still strengthens before a double tap of the Haitian Peninsula and all of eastern Cuba. Leaves a ragged system in the gulf.
Posted on 7/3/21 at 12:43 am to Duke
What's the best wind forecast site for tropical storms or hurricanes? I usually look at GFS forecasts for radar and weatherstreet for general jetstream wind trends, but not sure if there's something additional for trop storms. Watching winds as mom is flying LAX-MIA monday night on a redeye, thinking she'll be fine but keeping an eye out
Posted on 7/3/21 at 12:50 am to CuseTiger
quote:
What's the best wind forecast site for tropical storms or hurricanes?
I'd use the HWRF as a rough approximation, especially as we get closer to the time. Look at the 850 mb winds, note they'll be lower speed at the ground but it'll get the direction and an idea where the strongest winds will be in the last 5000 feet or so in.
LINK
Posted on 7/3/21 at 1:03 am to Duke
Thanks man. All i knew about HWRF was it likes to blow up these storms. So quick tutorial since no one else is in here at this hour. I clicked on the 12z Tues 7/6 and clicked on the purple located just outside of Ft. Lauderdale and Miami. See all of the pressure vs temp maps, but on the right noticed SHR- 86kt, MAXSHR- 95kt, and Steer 63kt. Is the top right graph (hodograph) essentially a circular visual of the winds at different atmospheric pressures in that location?
Posted on 7/3/21 at 1:11 am to lsuman25
quote:
GFS landfall near Mexico Beach
This will end up a Mobile landfall, i’m puckering in Destin
Posted on 7/3/21 at 1:11 am to CuseTiger
quote:
Is the top right graph (hodograph) essentially a circular visual of the winds at different atmospheric pressures in that location?
Yes.
It's really useful for severe weather, and you can figure out shear easily from it. Each level is some height off the ground (pressure level will vary, it's heights typically in km) and it is showing you speed and direction.
If you're going to use the soundings, I'd suggest boxing out an area near the likely flight path. It should give you a more representative sample than a spot.
This post was edited on 7/3/21 at 1:13 am
Posted on 7/3/21 at 1:13 am to MontanaLivin
quote:
This will end up a Mobile landfall
What makes you think that ?
Posted on 7/3/21 at 1:20 am to Duke
Had no clue you could highlight a region instead of just a spot let alone have it calculate the average for the area, learned something new tonight 
. Appreciate the help, usually stay out of these threads as they turn into a pissing match during the day.
35kt on the surface is close to having some bigger issues at the airports, but plenty of time to keep watch.
. Appreciate the help, usually stay out of these threads as they turn into a pissing match during the day. 35kt on the surface is close to having some bigger issues at the airports, but plenty of time to keep watch.
Posted on 7/3/21 at 1:39 am to CuseTiger
quote:
35kt on the surface is close to having some bigger issues at the airports, but plenty of time to keep watch.
The surface is tricky because the models dont the power or resolution to really get the friction right. If the 850 mb are high and it looks like it's putting rain down on the radar depiction there might be something to the higher surface numbers.
The area averaged soundings are all I use when I pull a model sounding. I'm really only interested in the overall environment with those and want to avoid the small scale stuff that can contaminate the sounding.
Posted on 7/3/21 at 6:41 am to Duke
Recon flight in progress.
Posted on 7/3/21 at 7:41 am to Duke
06z GFS still takes it a while to get passed Cuba, and it doesn't strengthen it after on its run to FL. Florida landfall shifted back more toward Tampa than it was on the 00z, not quite as far South as it has been on other runs, though. ~1006mb at landfall. It is also back to riding the East coast, where the 00z brought it much further inland.
This post was edited on 7/3/21 at 7:52 am
Posted on 7/3/21 at 7:54 am to LegendInMyMind
Something needs to start pushing that bitch East, away from muh Redneck Riviera.
Posted on 7/3/21 at 7:59 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Elsa's dick
Sign of the times...
Posted on 7/3/21 at 7:59 am to Bestbank Tiger
I try to be inclusive. I don't want to assume a hurricane's gender.
Posted on 7/3/21 at 8:07 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
I try to be inclusive. I don't want to assume a hurricane's gender.
I don’t want to cast aspersions but most hurricanes have a hole where all the trouble is mainly.
Posted on 7/3/21 at 8:13 am to Tarps99
quote:
I don’t want to cast aspersions but most hurricanes have a hole where all the trouble is mainly.
That is a very good point that I can't really argue with.
Posted on 7/3/21 at 8:40 am to Tarps99
Posted on 7/3/21 at 8:45 am to dukke v
PeeJ is this storm in the Caribbean yet?
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