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re: Tropical Storm Debby - Flooding Threat Slowly Shifting NE

Posted on 8/2/24 at 6:23 pm to
Posted by bobbyleewilliams
Tigertown
Member since Feb 2010
8451 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 6:23 pm to
quote:

Debby.
Just think of the headline if it would've hit Dallas.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14297 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 6:35 pm to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21522 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 7:26 pm to
18z GEFS with an uptick in members acting like they don't know what to do.

Posted by BigBinBR
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2023
10220 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 7:29 pm to
That line looks like they just tried to hit all the major cities up the East coast.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75137 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 7:32 pm to
quote:

I posted 7-28-24.

Nu uh!
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43295 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 7:35 pm to
Don't know how much if any difference it would be but seems almost all of them are way north than where the center is right now.
Posted by CoonassatTEXAS
Austin, TX
Member since Nov 2005
1264 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 7:52 pm to
GFS developing the next wave into a major hurricane hitting Nola dead on about 6 days from now
This post was edited on 8/2/24 at 7:53 pm
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43295 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 8:02 pm to
First GFS just starts developing that wave in 6 days it didn't have a landfall until day 11. More importantly this will change 500 times between now and then. First lets get through future Debby then take an eye on that if warranted.
Posted by Rick9Plus
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2020
2500 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 8:17 pm to
Yeah i noticed that Doomcane to NOLA. It’s not at the end of the gfs, either, but right in the middle. But then a few days ago the gfs had Debby there too.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75137 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 8:28 pm to
quote:

First GFS just starts developing that wave in 6 days it didn't have a landfall until day 11. More importantly this will change 500 times between now and then. First lets get through future Debby then take an eye on that if warranted.

Yeah, that's a good approach, but IF it is on to something in that range it really narrows the window for action.

Let's just hope it is a phantom.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43295 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 8:36 pm to
Posted by Crimsonians
Member since Nov 2019
2011 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 8:55 pm to
Definitely a west shift.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75137 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 9:28 pm to
This is an interesting/useful overlay from WeatherNerds.

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.


It is current satellite imagery with ensemble track overlay. On their site, under storm floaters, you can click "Display Options" and choose to turn the ensemble tracks overlay on for either ECENS or GEFS.

I can't seem to get it to work on mobile, it just flashes the dropdown for a second, not long enough to click the option I want.

If you want to try it out here's the link:

Weather Nerds

It is fairly straightforward to create a gif loop on their site.
This post was edited on 8/2/24 at 9:31 pm
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43295 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 9:36 pm to
Got it to work on desktop pretty cool.
Posted by SteelerBravesDawg
Member since Sep 2020
43337 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 9:37 pm to
Got it coming in over the Big Bend now.
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
42353 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 9:37 pm to
quote:

Weather Nerds
is solid!

Thanks for posting this
Posted by Mr Roboto
Seattle
Member since Jan 2023
8153 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 9:40 pm to
quote:

tigerbutt

You’re a piece of shite
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75137 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 9:42 pm to
quote:

is solid!

Yeah, they're a good resource.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75137 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 9:43 pm to
quote:

Got it to work on desktop pretty cool.

Worth watching as you track where the center is developing in regards to the ensemble trends.
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