re: Tropical Storm Cindy

current observations at 19Z seem to indicate a small low pressure center developing just off Honduras coast with pressures around 1010 mb (29.83in).

12z Euro only had some minor changes but the results were pretty different from the 00z. The 12z run keeps the system mostly down in the BOC but raises concerns about potential flooding in Louisiana or East Texas with some areas picking up over a foot of rain.

Not much change with the 18z GFS models

18z GEFS with a pretty strong signal for 100+ hrs

00z GFS-Para sends a strong tropical storm, nearing hurricane strength into the big bend of Florida Tuesday morning.

Operational GFS is weaker farther west, near the central Gulf late Monday into Tuesday morning.

Landfall is near Destin on the 00z Canadian as a tropical storm.

00z UKMET has the storm coming from the BOC riding the TX coast going inland south of Houston.

quote:

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Which day?

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Tuesday into Wednesday, this is only one model, and a shitty one at that historically.

Gulf storm:

quote:

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2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of

cloudiness and showers over most of Honduras and the northwestern

Caribbean Sea. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual

development of this large disturbance while it moves slowly

northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into

the south-central Gulf of Mexico early next week. Regardless of

development, heavy rains are likely to spread over portions of

Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba during

the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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Atlantic storm (92L):

quote:

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1. A tropical wave located about 1600 miles east-southeast of the

southern Windward Islands is producing scattered showers and

thunderstorms. This disturbance continues to show signs of

organization, and some additional development is possible

during the next couple of days before conditions become less

favorable for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected

to continue moving toward the west at 15 to 20 mph over the

tropical Atlantic during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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The 06z GFS duo refuse to fold with both the Op and Para into the Panhandle

Wonder when we will get the Invest distinction for the Gulf system?

Well, not everyone could be those lucky ones in Denham Springs 2016

Hurricane Gods:

Throw a baw a bone.

I'm getting married Saturday the 24th in BR. Should I be worried.

Thanks, genuflects, bows and scrapes in advance.

ETA: worried about weather!