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re: Time to discuss the Monty Hall problem (strategy and game show)
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:13 pm to Hammertime
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:13 pm to Hammertime
quote:
I am looking at as an actual game show. The host is always gonna open one of the doors with a goat behind it first. After that, it is a 50/50 shot. Changing your answer does nothing
they're explaining it in a bad way. i'll make the bigger concepts simpler
if you have 100 options, if you randomly pick one, you're 1% to pick the right one
each option the host eliminates raises your odds of choosing (in a blindfold or random scenario). the "2nd step"
the assumption is that you had a 1% chance of being right, so we assume you're wrong. the 98 choices the host eliminates basically hands you the winning option.
1
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:14 pm to Srbtiger06
quote:
Logically, it makes absolutely zero sense
I don't understand how people say this. Just because you(not singling you out) don't know the logic, doesn't make it illogical, logically
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:14 pm to KosmoCramer
This is also why the switch in Deal or No Deal is 50/50 in this situation but this isn't. In that game the eliminations ARE random (player picks, and player doesn't know the values).
Howie Mandel isn't a dick like Monty.
Howie Mandel isn't a dick like Monty.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:16 pm to SlowFlowPro
I already said that, but ok.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:23 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
I don't understand how people say this. Just because you(not singling you out) don't know the logic, doesn't make it illogical, logically
Poor wording
. The way most people handle it and think about it makes it appear to make ZERO sense. ETA: At first glance, I can see why it would appear to be 50/50 for the 2nd pick. The 'logic' people use to get there, however incorrect, is understandable.
This post was edited on 4/8/14 at 7:25 pm
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:24 pm to LSUtoOmaha
Here's the easy way to understand this.
There are 1000 doors. You pick one. Monty Hall (who knows where the car is and will always pick a door with a goat) then picks 998 doors, revealing 998 goats.
Now isn't it obvious you should switch?
ETA: I see now Kosmo already made this point.
There are 1000 doors. You pick one. Monty Hall (who knows where the car is and will always pick a door with a goat) then picks 998 doors, revealing 998 goats.
Now isn't it obvious you should switch?
ETA: I see now Kosmo already made this point.
This post was edited on 4/8/14 at 7:41 pm
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:26 pm to foshizzle
quote:
Now isn't it obvious you should switch?
It's still 50/50 because you are picking between two doors.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:26 pm to link
quote:
link
Nicely done sir.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:27 pm to foshizzle
no
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:33 pm to livewire
k
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:42 pm to KosmoCramer
Love when this comes up on the OT. Amazing that people argue against switching despite the insurmountable evidence for switching.
When you initially pick, there is a 1 in 3 chance that you've picked correctly, and a 2 in 3 chance you've chosen incorrectly. Monte is going to show you a goat next, and by switching you get to see what is behind TWO doors. That is why you switch.
It is painfully obvious when you extrapolate it out to, let's say, 1,000,000 doors. You've got a .0001% chance of being correct, so there is a 99.9999% chance you're wrong, and that the car is in the other 999,999 choices. If I know where the car is, and show you 999,998 other goats, are you telling me that you'd sit there a proudly keep you're original choice? Of course not. You'd be incredibly arrogant to think you've picked the right door originally. The math says that there was a 99.9999% chance that the car was in the remaining doors, and because I know where the car is, there is a 99.9999% chance that it is the remaining door I've not yet shown you.
Link, you're welcome to be a contestant on my game show any day of the week.
ETA: I see that Link is doing some quality trolling using the thread from May 2013.
When you initially pick, there is a 1 in 3 chance that you've picked correctly, and a 2 in 3 chance you've chosen incorrectly. Monte is going to show you a goat next, and by switching you get to see what is behind TWO doors. That is why you switch.
It is painfully obvious when you extrapolate it out to, let's say, 1,000,000 doors. You've got a .0001% chance of being correct, so there is a 99.9999% chance you're wrong, and that the car is in the other 999,999 choices. If I know where the car is, and show you 999,998 other goats, are you telling me that you'd sit there a proudly keep you're original choice? Of course not. You'd be incredibly arrogant to think you've picked the right door originally. The math says that there was a 99.9999% chance that the car was in the remaining doors, and because I know where the car is, there is a 99.9999% chance that it is the remaining door I've not yet shown you.
Link, you're welcome to be a contestant on my game show any day of the week.
ETA: I see that Link is doing some quality trolling using the thread from May 2013.
This post was edited on 4/8/14 at 7:46 pm
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:44 pm to Srbtiger06
quote:
Logically, it makes absolutely zero sense...but it works. The host's knowledge is the key.
That makes sense then. I thought he could pick any of the first 3 at random.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:45 pm to slackster
quote:
Link, you're welcome to be a contestant on my game show any day of the week.
Link is copying an argument that has been made here before, word for word. It's the top result when you google tigerdroppings monty hall.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:47 pm to lsu480
quote:
That makes sense then. I thought he could pick any of the first 3 at random.
The contestant does pick the from the first three at random.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:51 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
The contestant does pick the from the first three at random.
I get that but the one the host eliminates is not random, correct? If they are all random and the host doesn't have any influence I can't understand why switching would matter.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:52 pm to lsu480
the host reveals one of the two doors he knows hides a goat.
he knows what's behind all 3 doors
he knows what's behind all 3 doors
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:52 pm to lsu480
If the host doesn't know which door holds the car, the odds are not improved.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:57 pm to slackster
quote:
If the host doesn't know which door holds the car, the odds are not improved.
Technically they are improved because they would be 50/50 not 33.3/66.6.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 7:58 pm to KosmoCramer
If the host doesn't know, it could knock your odds down to 0%. Because he could eliminate the door with a car.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 8:02 pm to slackster
the host knows. stop creating a new problem to fit what you think is right
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