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re: Things are heating up again in Korea (UPDATE IN OP: US Mobilizes 2nd ID)
Posted on 8/20/15 at 2:27 pm to Spaceman Spiff
Posted on 8/20/15 at 2:27 pm to Spaceman Spiff
quote:
Does NK have any S-300s?
I don;t think so. Looks like their front line would be protected by a series of S-75 batteries.
LINK
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Posted on 8/20/15 at 2:31 pm to Darth_Vader
Interesting. What do you think the US/SK reaction time would be to an all-out invasion? And would just enough be done to return to original borders?
Posted on 8/20/15 at 2:44 pm to Spaceman Spiff
quote:
What do you think the US/SK reaction time would be to an all-out invasion?
Within minutes aircraft places from everywhere from South Korea, Guam, Hawaii and as far away as the U.S. would begin pre-takeoff procedures. The ground forces in Korea, primarily the 2nd Infantry Division would move out into the field to take up predetermined defensive positions. Marines would begin to get ready to deploy from places like Okinawa. The Army's 82nd Airborne would get ready to move out within 24 hours. I'm guessing there would be plans started to move the 1st Cav from Ft. Hood, Texas 1st Infantry from Ft. Riley. Perhaps maybe even the 10th Mtn. Div & 3rd Inf divisions as well. Although these deployments would take weeks and I'm not sure the war would even still be going on by that point.
This post was edited on 8/20/15 at 2:49 pm
Posted on 8/20/15 at 2:56 pm to Darth_Vader
Thank you sir for another awesome discussion. Can't argue those points. Still not sure that Seoul wouldn't fall again...
Keep these type of discussions going, sir!
Keep these type of discussions going, sir!
Posted on 8/20/15 at 3:02 pm to Darth_Vader
Maybe NK will use hovercraft like in that James Bond movie.
Posted on 8/20/15 at 3:05 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
. And if it ever came to war, there's a good chance that China would eventually be sucked in to save their arse
Would. Not. Happen.
China is sick of North Korea's shite as much as anyone else. They just don't want to deal with 20 million malnuourished North Korean ex-pats if the country falls.
Also, NK has tons of minerals apparently and NK has not been the best trading partner.
Posted on 8/20/15 at 3:08 pm to TheCaterpillar
But I agree a war there would result in massive loss of civilian life in addition to military. One massive bomb hits South Korea's heavily populated areas and we could see hundreds of thousands dead. 10 million people live in Seoul. 
It would get very ugly.
It would get very ugly.
Posted on 8/20/15 at 3:08 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
And if it ever came to war, there's a good chance that China would eventually be sucked in to save their arse so there's the whole issue of it expanding into World War III.
China would help facilitate a coup if Lil' Kim went off the rails like that. They don't want to get involved in a Korean war any more than we do.
Posted on 8/20/15 at 3:14 pm to Spaceman Spiff
quote:
Thank you sir for another awesome discussion. Can't argue those points. Still not sure that Seoul wouldn't fall again...
Keep these type of discussions going, sir!
Thanks. I enjoy reading your thoughts in these threads as well. And I will admit it's not out of the realm of possibility that in the opening phase of a war Seoul would fall to the north or at least have a substantial amount of infiltrators enter the city. I just think it unlikely due to the barrier of the DMZ coupled with the topography north and east of Seoul would lead to bottlenecks and allow air power to destroy their mech forces in detail. Take a look at this topographical map....
As you can see, there's really only two clear avenues of approach from north to south around Seoul. And here's a great satellite picture that gives an idea of the terrain over which an invasion would come....
That terrain coupled with the massive obstacle they'd face crossing an even undefended DMZ (much less if the South can mount any sort of defense there) is what leads me to think it's doubtful the North could reach Seoul.
Posted on 8/20/15 at 3:18 pm to TheCaterpillar
Militarily, China wouldn't get involved. They are not going to want to face the ROK or US military head up. They have too much to lose by getting involved that way. They will play "peace maker". They view NK as a snot nose punk little brother but being the "buffer" they are, they view them as a necessary evil.
North Korea knows as well as anybody else, any escalation on their part would mean regime suicide for them. They will lose in very lopsided way if they came South. They know this. The ROK would beat that arse by themselves. Seoul would take a pounding for a little bit but those guns would be silenced with a quickness as soon as they gave up their positions and the mobile guns would be hunted down. ROK and the US would have air superiority within a few days and that's undisputed. Like I say, North Korea is fricking crazy but they are not suicidal.
North Korea knows as well as anybody else, any escalation on their part would mean regime suicide for them. They will lose in very lopsided way if they came South. They know this. The ROK would beat that arse by themselves. Seoul would take a pounding for a little bit but those guns would be silenced with a quickness as soon as they gave up their positions and the mobile guns would be hunted down. ROK and the US would have air superiority within a few days and that's undisputed. Like I say, North Korea is fricking crazy but they are not suicidal.
Posted on 8/20/15 at 3:19 pm to GetCocky11
quote:
by GetCocky11
Maybe NK will use hovercraft like in that James Bond movie.
They actually have them. I'm on my phone at the moment so I can't post the pictures, but I've seen where they have been using them to train for amphibious assaults.
Posted on 8/20/15 at 3:23 pm to Johnny B Goode
quote:
Militarily, China wouldn't get involved. They are not going to want to face the ROK or US military head up. They have too much to lose by getting involved that way. They will play "peace maker". They view NK as a snot nose punk little brother but being the "buffer" they are, they view them as a necessary evil.
North Korea knows as well as anybody else, any escalation on their part would mean regime suicide for them.
Agree.
quote:
Like I say, North Korea is fricking crazy but they are not suicidal.
Disagree with this if Kim Jong Un is gravely ill and wants to go down swinging. He apparently is in terrible health. That shite can mess with your mind and he's a batshit crazy SOB that doesn't care AT ALL about human life, even those in his own country.
Posted on 8/20/15 at 3:25 pm to TheCaterpillar
i'll just say this...don't underestimate the number of fricks that north korea gives, and that's less than zero.
Posted on 8/20/15 at 3:28 pm to The Egg
quote:
i'll just say this...don't underestimate the number of fricks that north korea gives, and that's less than zero.
ABSOLUTELY NO frickS GIVEN
Posted on 8/20/15 at 3:35 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Militarily, China wouldn't get involved. They are not going to want to face the ROK or US military head up. They have too much to lose by getting involved that way. They will play "peace maker". They view NK as a snot nose punk little brother but being the "buffer" they are, they view them as a necessary evil.
North Korea knows as well as anybody else, any escalation on their part would mean regime suicide for them.
Agree.
I think you and the others bring up some good points, but we'd be foolish to assume that China would allow their puppet to the south be crushed. To them, more than anything else, North Korea is a perfect buffer state. They'd view a united Korea as a massive threat so we cannot rule out the possibility that they'd resort to military action in order to grantee that threat never emerges.
Remember that in the fall and winter of 1950 the US, almost to the Yalu River and on the verge of wiping out last vestiges of North Korea, thought that China would not intervene... But they did.
quote:
Disagree with this if Kim Jong Un is gravely ill and wants to go down swinging. He apparently is in terrible health. That shite can mess with your mind and he's a batshit crazy SOB that doesn't care AT ALL about human life, even those in his own country.
I think this s possible but unlikely. If war does break out between North & South, I'd imagine it would be the result of one of these "incidents" that spiral out of control .
This post was edited on 8/20/15 at 3:36 pm
Posted on 8/20/15 at 3:40 pm to Spaceman Spiff
quote:
That's a whole shitload. That tide would be very hard to stem in the opening moments. Seoul would be taken, and rather quickly.
It's not 12 guys trying to defend Seoul from 27. They have plenty enough men to defend Seoul.
Posted on 8/20/15 at 3:40 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
I think this s possible but unlikely. If war does break out between North & South, I'd imagine it would be the result of one of these "incidents" that spiral out of control .
I agree.
quote:
we'd be foolish to assume that China would allow their puppet to the south be crushed. To them, more than anything else, North Korea is a perfect buffer state. They'd view a united Korea as a massive threat so we cannot rule out the possibility that they'd resort to military action in order to grantee that threat never emerges.
I could see it, but I think they'd worry more about their economy and the shitstorm that would cause with international trade. We're more intertwined with their economy than ever before. NK has a lot of natural resources that haven't been tapped into and I could see China looking at a unified Korean peninsula under SK rule as a much more open trade avenue for these things. NK is a shitty trade partner. Like real shitty.
quote:
Remember that in the fall and winter of 1950 the US, almost to the Yalu River and on the verge of wiping out last vestiges of North Korea, thought that China would not intervene... But they did.
Different times.
I think it could happen though and I never doubt your military knowledge, but my opinion is they wouldn't help or prevent the US and SK from taking NK. They'd fortify their border and watch it all go down.
In the end I think money talks more than anything.
This post was edited on 8/20/15 at 3:42 pm
Posted on 8/20/15 at 3:51 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Different times.
I think it could happen though and I never doubt your military knowledge, but my opinion is they wouldn't help or prevent the US and SK from taking NK. They'd fortify their border and watch it all go down.
In the end I think money talks more than anything.
Let's just hope we never get to find out what they'd do for sure. A general war in Korea would be a massive humanitarian disaster and very destabilizing to the world as a whole.
This post was edited on 8/20/15 at 3:52 pm
Posted on 8/20/15 at 3:53 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Remember that in the fall and winter of 1950 the US, almost to the Yalu River and on the verge of wiping out last vestiges of North Korea, thought that China would not intervene... But they did.
China was way more closed off in 1950 and didn't have as much to lose economically. They'd probably tell Un to chill the hell out and not do anything stupid because they won't be there to bail him out if he does.
Posted on 8/20/15 at 4:07 pm to GetCocky11
quote:
China was way more closed off in 1950 and didn't have as much to lose economically. They'd probably tell Un to chill the hell out and not do anything stupid because they won't be there to bail him out if he does.
True, it's a different age and the world situation is vastly different now. Like I said, it's possible China would set on the sideline and not lift a finger. We should not just assume that's what they'd do though without understanding what it would mean if they did intervene.
Which you've made me think of another conversation. How the hell did the Chinese even pull off a stalemate in the Korean War?!?! Yeah they had the Soviets pouring in arms and supplies. But keep in mind their civil war that had been going since like 1927 had only ended in 1949. And in the middle of that they had the whole Japanese invasion as well. Between those two wars, fought simultaneously over a period over 20 years of non-stop conflict, the Chinese lost tens of millions and had huge swaths of their biggest cities in the Eastern & central part of the country laid to waste. And yet despite all this, only one year after the Communists took over, they were able to go into another war against what was regarded as the best military in the world, backed up by the UN, and were able to fight them to a stalemate. Yeah, it could be argued the US was not fully committed to total victory and regarded the war as a "police action". But still, what the Chinese did in Korea is pretty amazing if you think about it.
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