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re: The US economy gained 236,000 jobs in March

Posted on 4/7/23 at 1:50 pm to
Posted by Klark Kent
Houston via BR
Member since Jan 2008
74873 posts
Posted on 4/7/23 at 1:50 pm to


“Thanks to the policies we have put in place, the recovery is creating good jobs that you can raise a family on, which is pulling more Americans into the labor force..”

~ President House Plant
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
59283 posts
Posted on 4/7/23 at 1:52 pm to
quote:

lol, this is seemingly good news, as of now.


At best it's a mixed bag. One could cherry-pick data from it to paint a rosier or gloomier picture, but to me it looks to be slightly negative (when taken as a whole).

Labor Force Participation continued to grow, but so did jobs (jobs beat expectations). Wages still going higher (even though at a slower pace) is only partially a product of worker shortage, the other part is the continued inflation (which is still far too high). Ideally, you want it to be completely due to worker shortage (as the inference is that the business is selling enough goods/services to afford the extra positions without having to raise prices).

The brunt of the jobs created were in luxury fields while the brunt of jobs lost were in manufacturing/real estate (including construction with that)/retail. When luxury jobs are increasing while necessity jobs are decreasing, that looks like a job bubble to me.

Inflation is going in the right direction, but one of the key indicators the Fed is looking for before pausing/pivoting rate hikes is for Unemployment to go up. For March, it went down (which could put a dent in the expectation of a pause in hikes for May, if other indicators are still stubbornly going in the wrong direction).
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