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re: SW LA getting rocked by severe storms this morning.

Posted on 5/18/21 at 9:48 pm to
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
39893 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 9:48 pm to
How’s your house Aspy? Sorry if I missed a post about it.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 9:54 pm to
quote:

That storm looks entirely different between the two radars in the area.


Caught a little bit of a CC drop corresponding to the highest reflectivity returns. Was subtle though.

The rainfall rates on the edge of this line are HUGE. Northern Houston, following along that tornado warning should expect some nuisance flash flooding at the very least.
Posted by Dire Wolf
bawcomville
Member since Sep 2008
39750 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 9:58 pm to
Nothing like a tornado warning to perk the arse before Bed
Posted by TXTIGERTAIL
Member since Oct 2011
281 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 10:02 pm to
My sister said a big cell just came through at her house south of Montgomery, Tx. She could hear things hitting the house and then lost power. I promised to be her eyes and ears til this passes.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 10:03 pm to
quote:

My sister said a big cell just came through at her house south of Montgomery, Tx. She could hear things hitting the house and then lost power. I promised to be her eyes and ears til this passes.


It should be getting past her soon. I'm sure it was intense though for a few minutes.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71030 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 10:07 pm to
That's a nasty bow heading into to Houston. Probably winds pushing 70mph.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 10:08 pm to
This MCS is fricking rocking in general. Eating on some tasty instability.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71030 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 10:09 pm to
More than one little notch where something could try to spin up, too, other than the current warning.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71030 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 10:10 pm to
quote:

This MCS is fricking rocking in general. Eating on some tasty instability.

Does it look to have more of a Northerly motion over the past few frames?
Posted by BallsEleven
Member since Mar 2019
6163 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 10:12 pm to
Which screen in RadarScope picks up hail and rainfall rates?
Posted by blight
central
Member since Jul 2012
1036 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 10:23 pm to
i think that’s what it’s supposed to do. it’s supposed to hammer houston while turning more north.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 10:23 pm to
quote:

Which screen in RadarScope picks up hail and rainfall rates?


This is a case of needing to know what you're looking for.

Hail, I like the differential reflectivity. You see it drop off to white where the normal radar has purples, it's giant hail. Correlation coefficient is also useful. You'll see the color go yellow in cases of hail.

Specific Differential Phase has been great at spotting heaviest rainfalls with this. Bright returns mean there are a larger number of raindrops and when you have a tropical air mass I find this tool works well.
Posted by BallsEleven
Member since Mar 2019
6163 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 10:27 pm to
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
53356 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 10:30 pm to
State Climatologist Barry reppin' those LSU Tigers

Way to Geaux, Barry!





"Ward Creek went as hard as Will Wade on the recruiting trail yesterday"
This post was edited on 5/18/21 at 10:47 pm
Posted by DhanTigers212
Member since Dec 2014
10368 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 10:36 pm to
You expect us to get 10 more inches? Please tell me you’re joking.
This post was edited on 5/18/21 at 10:37 pm
Posted by blight
central
Member since Jul 2012
1036 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 10:42 pm to
no. current euro model has us at just over 1” for the next 24 hours (duke, you might need to check my numbers again ??)
This post was edited on 5/18/21 at 10:43 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71030 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 10:45 pm to
If models keep trending the way they are, someone in LA is going to get a whole lot more rain over the next 24-36 hours.

There's a chance the biggest rainfall totals stay off shore, though. Most all models have plenty of of rain/storms. More of them are pulling that rain into Southern LA than not right now.
This post was edited on 5/18/21 at 10:52 pm
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
53356 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 10:45 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/18/21 at 10:52 pm
Posted by The Truth 34
Chavez Ravine
Member since May 2010
41567 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 10:53 pm to
quote:

Ward Creek went as hard as Will Wade on the recruiting trail yesterday"


Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 11:00 pm to
quote:

no. current euro model has us at just over 1” for the next 24 hours (duke, you might need to check my numbers again ??)


New Euro ain't run yet but it's too close in timeframe and a convective event, I tend to try to aggregate the convective allowing models (NAM 3k, HRRR, HREF ensemble, ect) to get an idea of what to expect.
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