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Started By
Message
re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:14 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:14 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
LINK /
0
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:15 pm to rds dc
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:18 pm to slackster
so it ramps it up but basically stalls it out in the bahamas for a while before continuing on through SE Florida
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:19 pm to Wimp Lo
quote:
jizz
What's up with the insane amount of times I've seen this word used in this thread? Is it just what weather buffs say?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:19 pm to slackster
1st landfall
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:21 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
When would the expected landfall be on the Gulf Coast if it tracked that way. I'm sure I'm not alone in saying that many Tigers have flights planning to leave on Thursday and Friday. If the storm stalled out those flights could/would be delayed and people would be be unwilling to leave their families until a landfall location could be certain. Way far out I know.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:21 pm to GEAUXmedic
Based on Limited Set of Parallel Runs for D+8 and D+11 Forecasts, Anomaly Correlation Skill Scores Between Parallel and Operational System Were Similar
–Slight Improvement in Score for the Southern Hemisphere Extratropics
–Slight Improvement in Score for the Southern Hemisphere Extratropics
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:22 pm to LSU5508
quote:
LSU5508
too early to really tell but early to mid next week.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:24 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
apparently the new UKMET has this thing weak but south of the MS Delta on the fricking 29th.
an anniversary storm would be so shitty.
an anniversary storm would be so shitty.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:25 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
GFS isn't making any sense on this run.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:25 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
1st landfall
It was projected in houston earlier today, now it's Miami/Fort Lauderdale. Only off by a few miles
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:27 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
yeah, actually contrary to the last run shes just sitting there getting her act together. Upper level winds are improving.
The 00z GFS is still hanging onto the upper level through longer and is still farther south with dry air than the 12z Euro.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:27 pm to rds dc
from a met at s2k:
quote:
It's the old MU problem of taking TCs through 500mb ridges. When you see that, ignore it. It tried to do the same in Katrina. I remember it forecast Katrina to hit South Carolina
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:28 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
GFS isn't making any sense on this run.
it hasn't made sense in a few days. i mean i hope it's right because the Euro and the general trends are terrifying but it just stays weak with no shear and bathtub temps.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:30 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
The last model holdout has moved west.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:31 pm to GEAUXmedic
someone find the 0z UKMET imagery
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:31 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
The last model holdout has moved west.
Maybe it can add a couple more systems, to be more realistic
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:32 pm to GEAUXmedic
nvm
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 11:35 pm
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:33 pm to GEAUXmedic
Canadian into New Orleans.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:41 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
After staying on Florida for a while it moves the system east and intensifying.
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