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Message
re: Storm Aftermath - Hurricane Matthew will be Retired
Posted on 10/1/16 at 12:29 pm to Jim Rockford
Posted on 10/1/16 at 12:29 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
That death figure of 20,000 predicted for Katrina might happen in Kingston instead.
Unreal. I just left there Thursday. They are so wholly unprepared for something like this. Half the people live in borderline shacks. This will be a disaster.
0
Posted on 10/1/16 at 12:31 pm to rds dc
quote:
Looks like a Cat 5 into N.C. on the 12z GFS. The Euro has been flipping between out to sea or getting trapped under the ridge with a NW turn or stall on the last few runs (last 2 12z runs NW turn or trapped stall, last 2 00z runs faster N or NE movement). So it will be interesting to see what it does today at 12z.
12z GFS
The Atlantic waters are warm it may get back up but a Cat5? Wow we shall see.. I will book a hotel if this is the case in the next three-four days.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 12:33 pm to cajunangelle
quote:
It makes no sense that Jamaicans are doing this and not evacing the Island
It's so hard to describe how poor the majority of Jamaica is. The resorts you see in Montego Bay are so far the exception to the norm it's insane.
Most people live in borderline lean-to shacks. They have nowhere to go. This was also barely a hurricane when I left there Thursday. Now it's turned into a fricking nuclear bomb.
It's gonna be REAL bad.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 12:33 pm to rds dc
Why are they shifting some of the routes to the gulf?
Posted on 10/1/16 at 12:33 pm to rds dc
That southern jog is pretty crazy. I know not to read to much into short term movements like that, but it isn't something you see very often.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 12:35 pm to fishfighter
quote:
Why are they shifting some of the routes to the gulf?
They aren't.
ETA: At least not any major models.
This post was edited on 10/1/16 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 10/1/16 at 12:38 pm to slackster
That souther jog may be more of the eye swinging around the center and really more of a sign of a stall just before it starts heading more northerly. I have seen many hurricanes do that.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 12:38 pm to 31TIGERS
quote:
I'm certainly no expert on storms/weather but when we were in Jamaica few weeks ago I spoke with several folks from Jamaica and the subject of hurricanes came up. I asked them how they prepare and surprisingly most said they just hunker down and pray (very religious folks). To my surprise (sort of) all of them said that depending on where a storm would hit or make landfall, the mountains actually help them out a lot.
They have next to no prep. New Kingston has some decent structures that I'd imagine they turn into shelters, but 98% of the population is in deplorable poverty.
They do have some natural protection from the mountains, but they've basically just been lucky over the recent years. The last major one they had was in the 80s I believe, and it just worked that island.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 12:39 pm to fishfighter
quote:
Why are they shifting some of the routes to the gulf?
It's ensemble model with 50 members, so 8 or 10 getting the Gulf is a cluster but still the majority of the members are east. Individual members aren't useful, but it shows that there are some setups that would result in a more westward track but the majority of the setups result in an eastward track.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 12:41 pm to BigB0882
quote:
That souther jog may be more of the eye swinging around the center and really more of a sign of a stall just before it starts heading more northerly. I have seen many hurricanes do that.
Yea, it is a cool looking motion, but should correct here pretty soon. The jumping around averages out over the longer term.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 12:46 pm to rds dc
Where is everyone's money on where this baby will make landfall?
Posted on 10/1/16 at 12:47 pm to rds dc
Prayers sent to Sandals
Posted on 10/1/16 at 12:49 pm to FootballNostradamus
quote:
It's so hard to describe how poor the majority of Jamaica is. The resorts you see in Montego Bay are so far the exception to the norm it's insane.
Most people live in borderline lean-to shacks. They have nowhere to go.
This and this again!! It had been a while since I'd been to Jamaica and I was quite surprised upon arrival a few weeks ago. To say that those poor people live in lean-to shacks is an understatement. We took a bunch of pictures and videos of the areas of the island that we were in and around and my goodness, those poor souls.
The resorts are definitely the exception to the rule!
Posted on 10/1/16 at 12:55 pm to FootballNostradamus
quote:
It's so hard to describe how poor the majority of Jamaica is.
All of the Caribbean islands are poor.
Too many people, not enough industry. All of these resorts that Americans go to on the islands are a far cry from reality around them. People on welfare here should feel thankful for what is provided to them for free.
In Jamaica, if you're on a welfare status, you have to clean up trash along roads, etc.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 1:01 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
People on welfare here should feel thankful for what is provided to them for free.
In Jamaica, if you're on a welfare status, you have to clean up trash along roads, etc.
I promise you that I have TONS more respect for the poor folks that may be on welfare in Jamaica versus that shite stains that are manipulating the welfare system here in the U.S. What we have here in American is blatant abuse to the system. Look no further than every election cycle for further proof.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 1:12 pm to 31TIGERS
Not wanting to politicize this important hurricane thread, but right you are.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 1:16 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
All of the Caribbean islands are poor.
Not true. Like anything there are exceptions. tCI, st Barthes, St Kitts, St John and plenty others are not poor.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 1:37 pm to 31TIGERS
One of my favorite thing about the Jamaicans is there aversion to debt/credit. You see partially built houses all over the island. Some of my friends are in "mid building" where, when they have money they build parts of their house. When they run out they stop and save and add more when they can. Many people live in one or two room houses as they build more.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 1:38 pm to VABuckeye
12z Euro with a big shift back to the west (the Euro battling itself b/w 00z and 12z continues).
If that low to the NE doesn't materialize, then this run would probably be even farther west.
If that low to the NE doesn't materialize, then this run would probably be even farther west.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 2:05 pm to rds dc
Small core should evenutally be replaced by a larger core after ERC
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