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Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:24 pm to baytiger
Looking extremely impressive on loops over last few hours. Will be cat 4 at next update
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:28 pm to baytiger
Holy shite 
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:28 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
Oh my
I know
the hurricane models (hwrf and gfdl) have it right under the gun too. nhc forecast has been east of the models for the past day or so. we actually adjusted our internal forecast west of NHC this morning and our forecast is still east of the models.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:32 pm to baytiger
It seems like they've seriously been underestimating the forecasted intensity of this storm
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:35 pm to ForeverLSU02
quote:rapid intensification is a funny thing. even if every variable is in place for it to happen it's still kind of 50/50.
It seems like they've seriously been underestimating the forecasted intensity of this storm
couple that with the notorious ineffectiveness of model intensity forecasts, and you have a situation in which the NHC will almost never forecast rapid intensification.
This post was edited on 9/30/16 at 3:36 pm
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:36 pm to baytiger
They have always sucked at predicting intensity
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:38 pm to Cosmo
From NBC News:
quote:
Hurricane Matthew is expected to make landfall in Cuba and cause $50,000,000 worth of improvements
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:38 pm to baytiger
The 18z models should be released soon, right?
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:38 pm to baytiger
Cuba should do a number on this thing, right? IIRC eastern Cuba is mountainous.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:38 pm to crazycubes
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:40 pm to ForeverLSU02
recon just found pressure of 947 now
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:42 pm to baytiger
quote:What's your thinking on the ultimate threat to FL? It still seems that the forecasted tracks are keeping it away from us, just creeping ever so slightly closer. What is your take?
we actually adjusted our internal forecast west of NHC this morning and our forecast is still east of the models.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:43 pm to ForeverLSU02
Looking like this one has the potential to be our first Cat 5 atlantic storm in quite some time. Florida better keep an eye on this one.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:44 pm to otowntiger
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:50 pm to ForeverLSU02
Officially a Cat 4 now 140mph winds
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:52 pm to otowntiger
quote:
What's your thinking on the ultimate threat to FL? It still seems that the forecasted tracks are keeping it away from us, just creeping ever so slightly closer. What is your take?
it's a little far out for a determination on Florida... but there is a definite threat for miami-space coast, and it's higher than the NHC forecast is letting on right now. NHC may have to make some significant westward adjustments in its 4-5 day soon.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:52 pm to lsuman25
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:54 pm to ForeverLSU02
lol, so begins the westward adjustment
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